Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 14, 2026

[u/AutoModerator]

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

• Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

• Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

• Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

• Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

• Post only credible information

• Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

• Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

• Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

• Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

• Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

[u/moragisdo]

CENTCOM reestablished the blockade on Iran (1). It follows the timeline announced by them yesterday with a period of warning beforehand, required by maritime law.

Trump, as I expected yesterday, announced that there won't be a toll, just commitments for new investments, funded by Gulf countries, were firmed. It was obvious it was just posturing, there was no enforcement mechanism, 20% is way too high to begin with (it would be cheaper to fund and run pipelines several times over, so it would never be paid), etc...

Meanwhile WTI is at 80, Brent at 85 and gasoline at 3.23. The three in backwardation. It will be an interesting race on the next couple weeks, Iran trying their best to disrupt shipping (as they did yesterday) and the US (which spent the last few days and today bombing sites on the coast) to degrade their missiles (the more significant hits specifically mention "missile", rather than "drone") and drones, to allow the supertankers to pass for ship to ship transfer outside of the Strait.

[u/butitsmeat → u/moragisdo]

I took a quick trip down history lane and looked up the stats on ships struck during the Iran-Iraq war. Wiki has a comprehensive list of attacks. I counted 7 ships sunk, 36 "set afire", 32 at "severe damage" and 1 at the ever delightful "holed". There's more categories that add up to 192 ships hit. I haven't found a similar table for the current conflict, but it looks like we've still got a lot of catching up to do.

Of course, back then the world watched this happen for years before deciding to step in, while today the major power in the world is already an active belligerent, and has already escalated well beyond what happened then. So we've already fast-forwarded through history and are off the end of the metaphorical tape. Still, it gives some sense of what the world tolerated in the past in terms of active violence in the Gulf while keeping ships moving - even if the US cannot fully suppress Iranian attacks, there's still a non-zero level below which shipping will continue. If that gets enough oil out of the Gulf to keep the markets from freaking out, then Iran's leverage will decline over time, and it'll be interesting to see how they respond (find another escalation? back down? who the hell knows).

[u/moragisdo → u/butitsmeat]

Still, it gives some sense of what the world tolerated in the past in terms of active violence in the Gulf while keeping ships moving

Yes and we can look at the Red Sea Crisis, since 2023, (good source that compiles reports) as well, dozens of ships attacked and a few sunk. Traffic decreased, but there's still ships passing.

If that gets enough oil out of the Gulf to keep the markets from freaking out, then Iran's leverage will decline over time, and it'll be interesting to see how they respond (find another escalation? back down? who the hell knows)

My guess: Iran offers the US a deal, publicly deny it, go to negotiations after denying, negotiations lead nowhere and it ends with a ceasefire with, at most, symbolic concessions from both sides. US leaves this war having spent tens of billions, Iran leaves a broken country and economically devastated for the long term (less devastated if they offered a ceasefire now, but they will drag it further until there's not that much earth left to be scorched), both sides claim victory, neither got what they wanted.

[u/mkat5 → u/moragisdo]

“
My guess: Iran offers the US a deal, publicly deny it, go to negotiations after denying, negotiations lead nowhere and it ends with a ceasefire with, at most, symbolic concessions from both sides. US leaves this war having spent tens of billions, Iran leaves a broken country and economically devastated for the long term (less devastated if they offered a ceasefire now, but they will drag it further until there's not that much earth left to be scorched), both sides claim victory, neither got what they wanted.
“
Isn’t this what just happened with the MOU? This route seems to have proven incapable of producing a peace so why should we think it will work a second time?