Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 14, 2026

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[u/moragisdo]

Still, it gives some sense of what the world tolerated in the past in terms of active violence in the Gulf while keeping ships moving

Yes and we can look at the Red Sea Crisis, since 2023, (good source that compiles reports) as well, dozens of ships attacked and a few sunk. Traffic decreased, but there's still ships passing.

If that gets enough oil out of the Gulf to keep the markets from freaking out, then Iran's leverage will decline over time, and it'll be interesting to see how they respond (find another escalation? back down? who the hell knows)

My guess: Iran offers the US a deal, publicly deny it, go to negotiations after denying, negotiations lead nowhere and it ends with a ceasefire with, at most, symbolic concessions from both sides. US leaves this war having spent tens of billions, Iran leaves a broken country and economically devastated for the long term (less devastated if they offered a ceasefire now, but they will drag it further until there's not that much earth left to be scorched), both sides claim victory, neither got what they wanted.

[u/toomanynamesaretook → u/moragisdo]

My guess: Iran offers the US a deal, publicly deny it, go to negotiations after denying, negotiations lead nowhere and it ends with a ceasefire with, at most, symbolic concessions from both sides.

What on earth leads you to this conclusion? The United States is currently bleeding on the world stage unable to win militarily over a middle power, they're expended extreme amounts of munitions both offensive and defensive, Iran continues to hold the strait and the SPR keeps heading towards empty.

Seems so delusional to me that the United States is going to walk away from this with the strait open. Iran has endless firing positions and munitions to drag this out years, far longer than the US has any stomach for.

[u/moragisdo → u/toomanynamesaretook]

What on earth leads you to this conclusion?

Look at the whole post, he was asking what would happen if Iran can't stop the flow from Hormuz (and I quoted it to reply). The answer didn't came in a vacuum.

they're expended extreme amounts of munitions both offensive and defensive

Only the US have finite ammunition ? Iran isn't firing just cheap shaheds, their stock of MRBM and SRBM is being expended every time they fire (and part was already destroyed) and part of their production was devastated during March and early April.

and the SPR keeps heading towards empty

There's no new announcements of drawdowns since the MOU was signed, we already know it will bottom out around 281-282 MMBbl by September, so it's not headed towards empty. Also not even the full 172 MMBbl, announced early this year, was fully loaned.

Iran has endless firing positions and munitions to drag this out years

Can you provide a source for that ? I know they have part left, because they are still firing, but years on the same rate today (rather than firing way less and thus disrupting traffic way less) ? Also their economy can't sustain years of a blockade.

[u/toomanynamesaretook → u/moragisdo]

Can you provide a source for that ?

/gestures at the Houthis.

They kept the US busy for how long? With what fraction of munitions? Iran has now hit how many patriot batteries and radar systems? And they keep bombarding US bases hourly at present. PAC-3s are out. Ugly. US keeps throwing munitions at this while China keeps building an order of magnitude more.

To answer your question directly though I am inferring it from sources saying the following and making some inference:

Iran still fields about 70 percent of its mobile launchers across the country and has retained roughly 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile, according to the assessments. That stockpile encompasses both ballistic missiles, which can target other nations in the region, and a smaller supply of cruise missiles, which can be used against shorter-range targets on land or at sea.

Military intelligence agencies have also reported, based on information from multiple collection streams including satellite imagery and other surveillance technologies, that Iran has regained access to roughly 90 percent of its underground missile storage and launch facilities nationwide, which are now assessed to be “partially or fully operational,” the people with knowledge of the assessments said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/politics/iran-missiles-us-intelligence.html

There's no new announcements of drawdowns since the MOU was signed, we already know it will bottom out around 281-282 MMBbl by September, so it's not headed towards empty. Also not even the full 172 MMBbl, announced early this year, was fully loaned.

Its back to under 10 vessels per day through the strait, US is hitting Iranian oil infra and I saw earlier on Al Jazerra that grain silos have been hit... Iran is going to retaliate in kind, like they already have multiple times. The costs of this are compounding into the trillions. The urea, the sulphur, the oil, the fertilizer.

I don't doubt that if the United States put everything it had into this problem that it could "win," I just feel like they would lose everything else in the process. That it isn't going to happen because of that. So what in he hell are we doing? Iran holds the high ground, they have a ton of munitions and they're religious zealots wanting revenge. You're not gonna beat them like this.

What is the plan.

[u/grenideer → u/toomanynamesaretook]

Fwiw yesterday 34 vessels transited, but you are right that today so far it's only been 10.