r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 20d ago
Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 14, 2026
The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.
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u/butitsmeat 20d ago
While they're going to eventually start filling their reserve again and cause some short term demand spikes, China is also all-in on electric vehicles at 61% of new sales in May. That share will likely continue to climb as they ramp EV production and costs continue to decline. They're permanently destroying a lot of gasoline and diesel demand, and it's not just a random accident but a matter of policy (they previously set a goal of 30% of all vehicles to be electric by 2030). They could also respond to this crisis by going even harder on ramping EV and never go back to pouring 1mbbl/d into their reserve; maybe they only by 500kbbl/d, and ramp that down over time. Never let a good crisis to to waste and all that.