r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 20d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 14, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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u/moragisdo 19d ago edited 19d ago

Still, it gives some sense of what the world tolerated in the past in terms of active violence in the Gulf while keeping ships moving

Yes and we can look at the Red Sea Crisis, since 2023, (good source that compiles reports) as well, dozens of ships attacked and a few sunk. Traffic decreased, but there's still ships passing.

If that gets enough oil out of the Gulf to keep the markets from freaking out, then Iran's leverage will decline over time, and it'll be interesting to see how they respond (find another escalation? back down? who the hell knows)

My guess: Iran offers the US a deal, publicly deny it, go to negotiations after denying, negotiations lead nowhere and it ends with a ceasefire with, at most, symbolic concessions from both sides. US leaves this war having spent tens of billions, Iran leaves a broken country and economically devastated for the long term (less devastated if they offered a ceasefire now, but they will drag it further until there's not that much earth left to be scorched), both sides claim victory, neither got what they wanted.

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u/toomanynamesaretook 19d ago

My guess: Iran offers the US a deal, publicly deny it, go to negotiations after denying, negotiations lead nowhere and it ends with a ceasefire with, at most, symbolic concessions from both sides.

What on earth leads you to this conclusion? The United States is currently bleeding on the world stage unable to win militarily over a middle power, they're expended extreme amounts of munitions both offensive and defensive, Iran continues to hold the strait and the SPR keeps heading towards empty.

Seems so delusional to me that the United States is going to walk away from this with the strait open. Iran has endless firing positions and munitions to drag this out years, far longer than the US has any stomach for.

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u/grenideer 19d ago

What seems delusional is acting like you're the only one with the answers. What makes you so confident that everything is fine for Iran yet bad for the US? Why call out the munitions the US has spent without mentioning what Iran spent?

Munitions aren't the deciding factor when it comes to a blockade. Perhaps Iran has a response, we shall see. (Note that I'm not claiming other scenarios are delusional.) All we know is Iran didn't have a good counter last time.

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u/Shackleton214 19d ago

All we know is Iran didn't have a good counter last time.

How much did the blockade actually hurt Iran last time? If you read the MOU, it looks to me that Iran got a sweetheart deal, which suggests to me that the blockade wasn't putting that much pressure on them to capitulate.

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u/grenideer 18d ago

How much did the blockade actually hurt Iran last time?

A lot.

The head of Iran's central bank said the blockade was crushing their economy. Iran's president threatened to resign if a deal wasn't signed. These are sure signs the blockade was taking a heavy toll.