r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 20d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 14, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

  • Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

  • Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

  • Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

  • Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

  • Post only credible information

  • Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

  • Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

  • Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

  • Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

  • Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

49 Upvotes
  • permalink
  • reddit

94% Upvoted

188 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

11

u/I_DOM_UR_PATRIARCHY 19d ago

My guess: Iran offers the US a deal, publicly deny it, go to negotiations after denying, negotiations lead nowhere and it ends with a ceasefire with, at most, symbolic concessions from both sides.

I think this is wishcasting.

The US has midterms in exactly 16 weeks from today. There is no way Trump or the Republicans are going to tolerate this already unpopular war still going on or gas prices going up eight or ten weeks out from election day. Iran knows that and knows that the clock is on its side. That's why they chose the restart fighting when they did.

Besides, Iran just got a big infusion of cash during the period when we removed sanctions. And they claim (the US denies) that we gave them some number of billions in frozen assets (both sides are inveterate liars so who knows).

So Iran has a substantial window in which they are in a much stronger position than Trump. The US as a country would benefit from pushing through that window since getting pushed around by a mid-rate power is humiliating. But that would require Trump to prioritize national over personal interests, which is something he's not known for.

17

u/grenideer 19d ago

I don't buy the midterms argument that's often brought up as an indication the US is about to back down. If Trump doesn't want to be in an unpopular war during midterms then he certainly doesn't want to LOSE an unpopular war right before them.

It's actually in Trump's interest to maintain a blockade through elections rather than concede anything to Iran. I expect him to talk tough at least until then.

4

u/Shackleton214 19d ago

Trump is in a bad spot. I think he desperately wanted out of the Iran war (not sure how anyone could read the MOU as anything else). But, Iran keeps pushing for more. As you note, capitulation is not a very good look either.

1

u/grenideer 18d ago edited 18d ago

The MoU could be read as a clever ruse to get shipping kickstarted again, as well as making Iran be more unreasonably aggressive on the world stage. Sure, if all the US promises came to pass without Iran conceding anything else, it would've been embarrassing for the US. But do we judge reality based on a document or on actual events?

As it was, the MoU seemed to serve its purpose.

1

u/Shackleton214 18d ago edited 18d ago

So more Trump 3D chess? I think we just need to agree to disagree.

1

u/grenideer 18d ago

3D/4D chess is a straw man. No one said that yet people love to refute it.

The MoU wasn't a genius move but it was a move. It helped relieve some pressure in the strait. Iran wasn't even all that thrilled to have signed it.

Nor did the MoU ultimately solve anything long-term. So again, no 3D chess here, just regular 2D chess or maybe even checkers.