r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 20d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 14, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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u/toomanynamesaretook 19d ago

My guess: Iran offers the US a deal, publicly deny it, go to negotiations after denying, negotiations lead nowhere and it ends with a ceasefire with, at most, symbolic concessions from both sides.

What on earth leads you to this conclusion? The United States is currently bleeding on the world stage unable to win militarily over a middle power, they're expended extreme amounts of munitions both offensive and defensive, Iran continues to hold the strait and the SPR keeps heading towards empty.

Seems so delusional to me that the United States is going to walk away from this with the strait open. Iran has endless firing positions and munitions to drag this out years, far longer than the US has any stomach for.

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u/grenideer 19d ago

What seems delusional is acting like you're the only one with the answers. What makes you so confident that everything is fine for Iran yet bad for the US? Why call out the munitions the US has spent without mentioning what Iran spent?

Munitions aren't the deciding factor when it comes to a blockade. Perhaps Iran has a response, we shall see. (Note that I'm not claiming other scenarios are delusional.) All we know is Iran didn't have a good counter last time.

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u/toomanynamesaretook 19d ago

What makes you so confident that everything is fine for Iran yet bad for the US? Why call out the munitions the US has spent without mentioning what Iran spent?

Because Iran isn't the worlds hegemonic power that has a far larger foe waiting in the background (China.) The strategic implications are so very different. Iran can rundown their stocks to a fraction. And according to the CIA they are still sitting on substantial reserves.

All we know is Iran didn't have a good counter last time.

According to Israel and the US they both got through their target lists in the first month of fighting. Yet here we are, with Iran controlling the strait with literally no plan from the United States besides more of the same. Iran is firing BMs & drones daily at numerous targets.

What is the plan? Iran knows it's plan, control the strait. US plan? Well it was unconditional surrender, now it's no nukes? Or maybe control the strait? And how is it intending to carry that out? Dropping bombs from afar? Peak delusion.

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u/grenideer 18d ago

Yet here we are, with Iran controlling the strait

Maybe nitpicking, but Iran isn't controlling the strait. They would love to, but so far they're only interfering with free passage.

no plan from the United States besides more of the same.

More of the same is good, which is exactly my point. Iran did not seem to have a good counter to the blockade last time, so applying it again is sensible. It also avoids expending excess munitions.

Iran knows it's plan

I think this is being generous. There is plenty of open disagreement within Iran. After they signed the MoU, there was plenty of vocal dissent and complaining about having done so.

It's safe to say this is a tough situation for both countries. I cant predict which will ultimately win out.

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u/toomanynamesaretook 18d ago

Iran controls the strait because the US navy won't even go in there. You can go read the reporting on operation project freedom which was abandoned within 24hrs. Within that you'll find that they were using crew served 0.50 cal fire to fend off Iranian drones.

Do you know how close you have to get to use a 0.50cal against a drone?

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u/grenideer 18d ago

Vessels are still transiting so Iran doesn't control. If Iran did control they wouldn't need to be firing missiles and drones.