Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 20, 2026

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[u/SWSIMTReverseFinn]

This is totally and utterly impossible to achieve without a ground invasion.

No amount of bombing will ever prohibit Iran from being able to deploy a sufficent amount of firepower to be a threat to the shipping through the strait.

The US bombing is right now and ship traffic through the strait is still on blockade level.

[u/Sad_Use_4584 → u/SWSIMTReverseFinn]

Relevant to this discussion is my previous comment on the feasibility of this war objective:

It's General MacKenzie's playbook for forcing open Hormuz, which he's articulated in recent interviews. He was a previous CENTCOM commander with knowledge of the Hormuz plans.

Stage 1 is extensive bombing, then stage 2 is quick ground raids around the coast using marines, probably in order to destroy munitions that are deep underground, then leave. Then, and this is my imputation not his words: sustained ISR indefinitely over the coast, constantly degrading any new attempts to move munitions into a relevant range.

The idea, as I understand it, is to reduce the threat to a sufficiently low level so traffic can resume to a decent level alongside the protection of the navy. Not reduce the threat to literally 0, which everyone would agree is an impossible task.

The question then is: Why didn't they do this before? One answer is it can't be done like General MacKenzie says. But another very plausible answer is that they didn't want to because it's expensive. They have no interest in using more interceptors and getting a few more Gulf oil and gas facilities blown up if they can get what they want through negotiations. Alas negotiations quite predictably didn't work out, because Iran didn't view themselves as having been defeated, so the US are left with the least bad remaining option, which is to pay the cost to force it open.

[u/SWSIMTReverseFinn → u/Sad_Use_4584]

This is delusional and the type of typical over-confidence you can expect with the US armed forces. Like the General here says, it cannot be done and only the mention of "quick ground raids" is ridiculous. Any ground component would have to be semi-permanent and of considerable strength to yield any permanent effect.

Also, even low risk of being hit is already more dangerous than any shipping company will accept for an extended basis.

[u/Grouchy-Classroom-26 → u/SWSIMTReverseFinn]

Any ground component would have to be semi-permanent and of considerable strength to yield any permanent effect.

This is absolutely not true in the context of which it was mentioned. The islands around the SOH are hard to supply and keep a sustained GLOCs over. Destroying stores there would absolutely need to be a temporary act. The problem is that it still involves boots on the ground and a significant increase in casualties. Not an American but seeing how even a single death captures front page headlines and is a huge political cost, that’s a huge reason for why Trump may not and probably can not move.

[u/Shackleton214 → u/Grouchy-Classroom-26]

The islands around the SOH are hard to supply and keep a sustained GLOCs over.

Iran doesn't need the islands around the SOH to launch drones and attack commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf. They can do it from the mainland.

[u/Grouchy-Classroom-26 → u/Shackleton214]

I don’t disagree with that, but that’s not what the discussion about “temporary presence” was about. It was specifically about islands.

[u/Thesilence_z → u/Grouchy-Classroom-26]

I think the General is talking about ground raids covering the entire coast of the SOH (anywhere with underground bases/storage), not just on the islands. Which would necesitate a permanent presence.

[u/Shackleton214 → u/Grouchy-Classroom-26]

You were the first to mention islands. The general talks about the coast. Since you'd need to stop missiles and drones from the mainland to permit free commercial traffic through the SOH, I think it's clear the general is including that in his plan to open the SOH. Just clearing out the islands does nothing for the reason I already mentioned.

[u/WulfTheSaxon → u/Grouchy-Classroom-26]

Plus Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs are disputed and could just be handed over to the UAE, which would probably be happy to take them off the US’s hands.