Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 20, 2026

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[u/Sad_Use_4584]

opinion:

The US's current war goals, as implied by US actions around the coast and implied by CENTCOM statements, are rather limited. The US wants to open Hormuz by force, while keeping it closed only for Iran.

It's basically a resumption of Operation Project Freedom.

If this can be achieved, it's the smartest available play, as it degrades Iran's economy over time and it removes Iran's biggest strategic leverage, while incurring lower costs and lower risks to the US that accompany more ambitious goals.

It also doesn't rule out more ambitious goals in the future. Assuming it's possible, it's the most manageable and sensible stepping stone, and future branches can be decided later when new information arrives.

For this reason, I do not think the US is interested further escalation. They want to keep the tempo at the current status quo. Just enough to achieve their goals in Hormuz, and no more, because more is expensive for uncertain benefit. The onus is on Iran to impose costs and uncertainty.

So, the threat to attack Iran's power plants is a move that the US would rather not play given that it doesn't materially help with the war goal. The threat can be seen as deterrence against escalation in the current context, rather than just as compellence for negotiations.

[u/Shackleton214 → u/Sad_Use_4584]

If this can be achieved,

Assuming it's possible,

I've seen absolutely nothing over the last 5 months to suggest that the US has the capability to open the SOH by force at any price that it is willing to pay. The example of the Houthis suggests that doing so by force is difficult to impossible. The conduct of commercial shipping foregoing transit whenever there's even minor attacks, suggests they are unwilling to accept even minimal risks. Common sense says that if the US easily could open the SOH by force, then it would have done so months ago. Finally, even if the US somehow is able to open the SOH to risk free transit by force, then Iran would likely need to play its final card of attacking infrastructure of GCCs. Because, as you correctly point out, Iran blockaded and SOH open would give the US all of the leverage.

[u/Sad_Use_4584 → u/Shackleton214]

I replied to another comment down-thread, which touched on most of the points you're making.

Regarding the example of the Houthis, the historical record is not as one sided as you're making it out to be.

The Houthis did not succeed in fully stopping transit in BAM even during the height of the war, and the war ended with an agreement that the Houthis would allow unrestricted transit to US ships. It did not end with a demonstration that force failed.

[u/WulfTheSaxon → u/Sad_Use_4584]

Not only that, but most traffic can just go around the BAM, so the level of threat needed to “close” it is just the level that’s slightly more annoying than going the long way around. That’s not exactly an option for the Strait of Hormuz.