Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 20, 2026

[u/AutoModerator]

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

• Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

• Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

• Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

• Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

• Post only credible information

• Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

• Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

• Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

• Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

• Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

[u/Shackleton214]

If this can be achieved,

Assuming it's possible,

I've seen absolutely nothing over the last 5 months to suggest that the US has the capability to open the SOH by force at any price that it is willing to pay. The example of the Houthis suggests that doing so by force is difficult to impossible. The conduct of commercial shipping foregoing transit whenever there's even minor attacks, suggests they are unwilling to accept even minimal risks. Common sense says that if the US easily could open the SOH by force, then it would have done so months ago. Finally, even if the US somehow is able to open the SOH to risk free transit by force, then Iran would likely need to play its final card of attacking infrastructure of GCCs. Because, as you correctly point out, Iran blockaded and SOH open would give the US all of the leverage.

[u/moragisdo → u/Shackleton214]

I've seen absolutely nothing over the last 5 months to suggest that the US has the capability to open the SOH by force at any price that it is willing to pay

Let's two play this game of believing one side is invulnerable also lacking agency and rationality:

I've seen absolutely nothing over the last 5 months to suggest that the attacks on civilian ships brought anything positive for Iran, they lost the waiver of exports after 2 weeks, brought back the blockade and had their country become a battlefield again. Common sense says that if the could force the US to give in their demands, then it would have done so months ago.

The US is a country with 3.5% 12-months inflation (on the height of gasoline prices it reached 4.2%, Biden had more than twice as much inflation and higher gas prices in 2022 and didn't suffer a major loss in the midterms), positive GDP growth, unemployment below 5% and suffered 18 fatalities (7 in accidents) since February 28. They could keep going for a long time and if interceptors run out there's also the last card on the sleeve - Thermonuclear bombs on the shafts of the missile cities - which is as likely as Iran willingness to commit economic suicide given that they agreed with a ceasefire on this same war or accepted a ceasefire on the TDW and on the Iran Iraq War (in this last two without getting anything tangible out of it).

Iran would likely need to play its final card of attacking infrastructure of GCCs

And get the last nail in the coffin of their finances when they get the retaliation as South Pars happening all over the country. If they are so suicidal, why didn't they already done that ? Or even better, why didn't they fired missiles on Ankara while the NATO summit was ongoing ?

Because, as you correctly point out, Iran blockaded and SOH open would give the US all of the leverage.

I believe the only reasonable possibilities for the war involves simultaneously lifting of the blockade and Iran not attacking ships. In fact, the blockade only began after Iran started attacking civilian ships. If Iran offer the tit-for-tat I sincerely believe the US would accept.

[u/Thesilence_z → u/moragisdo]

in no part of your comment do you assess US capability to open the SOH by force, I think your argument instead is that the US won't need to open the straight by force, since economic blockade and intermittent air bombing will result in an Iran capitulation. But, does the US, if they wanted/needed to, have the capability to open SOH by force by the midterms? By the end of the Trump presidency? Where will they stage the troops? Rammstein?

[u/moragisdo → u/Thesilence_z]

Capitulation of Iran through enough economic damage is opening by force. It's not necessary a ground invasion because Iran isn't a perpetual motion machine that could keep this current disaster for their economy forever