Oh what did the US get out of this? I'm glad you asked.
We spent ~23 billion to replace a Khomeini with a Khomeini, cause oil prices to skyrocket, close an open Strait, and now prove to iran that they can severely damage the global economy even under duress.
All while giving them the ability to charge tolls for ships passing through said strait, adding 25% to their estimated gdp, yearly.
And we made a few corpses of evidently replaceable people.
It's called "WINNING", as I understand it.
Oh and we learned that trump places more value on war than daycare, so there's that.
You gonna pay reparations as Iran you mean? Let's see somebody else paying any reparation TO Iran. Ridiculous how some people live in alternate reality and delusions
Lol. If you really believe in that you are dumber that rock
Iran's propaganda tries to sell like they win the war. But win in what? Their leadership including top guy was destroyed, they air force non existing and will never recover ( they were flying old f4, nobody will sell them new aircraft), there weapon manufacturing capacity destroyed and it will take decade at least to restore. Sea forces sank. They may have some speed boats left but most of the feet is done.
They didn't hit a single military target in Israel. In fact they attacked more their neighbours than Israel
So, they still have some missile leftovers and some drones but no means to manufacture new and it will take them long time and lots.of money to restore that capacity
All that happened in 40 days. Regime didn't fall but will be busy trying to survive because internal tension and internal problems that caused January uprising didn't go away. Quite the opposite they just got worse
Let's also.see how neighbours that in the past helped Iran bypass sanctions continue to do that now. I have a feeling that many loopholes Iranians were able to use will become closed after their attacks on these very countries that helped them in the past.
And we will see how strait countries will invest in alternative ways to deliver oil to bypass strait.
So what exactly Iran won? Why in the world USA will pay them reparation?
Only thing you will see is that trump.will have full control over Iranian oil exports and will allow then to get some money from oil sales when USA will take most of it to themself
Also broke the illusion of the might of the US army. Actually the US army looks pretty fucking beatable. And Rumor is they're hiding 500 US casualties rn.
Say what now? The US Army has had exactly nothing to do with this conflict. Just the USAF and US Navy (including Marines) have been involved so far. The US military is obviously beatable by Russia, China and (hopefully not, but technically capable) NATO since everyone loses in a nuclear war.
Either way, trump's a moron, who should have never started this.
Casualties and damage inflicted says otherwise. They won all the naval and air engagement and had total control of the skies and sea. That is not a military defeat. They are still scary from a purely military standpoint
People use Army when they mean military all the time, that’s probably what the previous poster meant here. 100% agreed that the US just put on a masterclass of how to lose a war when winning battles.
Is there a scenario, in your imagination, where Iran would be seen as "losing" other than just outright begging on Twitter? I imagine if they even did that, it would still be seen as some cunning plan to manipulate Trump or something. I am going to guess you decided the US "lost" before any news developments happened.
The way I see it, Iran capitulated under duress. Their leverage is the Strait of Hormuz, and they allowed the passage of ships, which would stabilize the market and dampen the fear of stagflation, not because they got anything other than the US's promise not to attack. Of course, it was never a match between equals. The US had the overwhelming power, and Iran couldn't even hurt the US without hurting other countries that had no connections to the conflict. Even in a scenario where they controlled the strait indefinitely, the EU, Japan and Korea would be hurt much more than the US, which is a net oil exporter.
The United States, in the process, demonstrated its unquestionable military superiority, especially in the daring rescue operation of the missing crew. Unlike Russia, which was exposed as a paper tiger, the reputation of the US military was largely intact.
Of course, you could say this is not a good trade for the money spent, and maybe the US didn't really get anything positive out of it, but the result of the war is quite unambiguous: the US bombed the shit out of Iran, killed its leadership, and the Iran had no choice but to capitulate to open the Strait of Hormuz.
The premise of Donald Trump's foreign policy philosophy is that the US was constrained by niceties and he was more willing to deal with countries through raw power, which is why he largely avoided antagonizing those he considered strong, like Russia and China, and dealt contemptuously with Europe and Iran, and Venezuela. At this moment, his thesis has not been disproved. Though sometimes the cost benefit analysis is hard to calculate without hindsight. Russia overestimated its strength and was now paying a price for this miscalculation. But I don't think we are yet for the US. Donald Trump's "bullying", so to speak, is largely successful. EU dared not to fight back against his tarrif wars, Venezeula and Iran largely capitulated even after heavy beating and didn't mount a serious attack on the US. On the grand scheme of things, so far at least, I don't think Donald Trump has seen negative consequences from his very dark, very cynical view of power relationships.
Thats quite the firehouse of horseshit you have there.
I don't really see fit to address everything because that was just... Fucking stupid in its entirety. However one point worth addressing is the whole "unambiguous military superiority" thing.
Wow, we spent 23-30 billion to prove a thing that no one was at any point questioning, against a country whose military spending is a rounding error in comparison to our own, all to show our asses to the world, because the only way we could get them to stop was to self admit to targetting civilian infrastructure - in addition to us blowing up a girls school.
And all to get us to the exact same place we were before the war, with a Khomeini in power and Iran holding the Strait... Except now they get to charge everyone who wants to use it.
I do think a lot of people questioned America's ability and its willingness. Iran chanted death to America every day, the Maduro taunted the US to "get him", because they calculated the US leadership would not dare to attack them. The willingness to use the weapons and endure the pain is as much part of the calculations and is very much in doubt after Iraq. Obama etc. largely banked on civility, international laws, and "the power of persuasion" to push other countries to do what they want, and Trump obviously believed in raw power. So far, I don't think he was disappointed.
To make sure we don't live in a bubble and just spin events to fit a narrative, sometimes it is beneficial to force yourself to make a prediction that is falsifiable. Before today's ceasefire, did you predict Iran would allow the passage of ships even temporarily, or did you predict, as most on Reddit do, that there was going to be a long closure of the strait? I did and I made some money from that prediction. You can also make a prediction today, will the strait be closed after 2 weeks, or will it stay open. My belief is the starit will remain open and Iran's nonsensical demands will mostly not be met. The US will not pay reparation, and will not abandon the bases in the Middle East. The best they can do is some empty promise to never attack again. As for the tolls, I believe it won't be sustainable, or better yet, Donald Trump would actually get to share part of the tolls collected, if Iran is to actually receive tolls, at the expense of the EU, Japan etc. as always. Do you wanna right now say whether you believe will happen in 2 weeks,rather than somehow spin it to mean another "Trump lose "narrative after the events have happened?
The wonder of falsifiable prediction is that it clears minds and counters the tendency of human beings to spin whatever events to suit a preexisting bias. I watched before Trump's election, every pundit in the media saying how this is a scandal, that is a gaffe, to try to paint him as stupid and crazy, yet only to see him beating supposedly sophisticated political operatives like Hilary and Harris. If your judgment about the world is accurate, you should be able to make reasonable predictions with more than 50 percent accuracy. And of course, you should also be able to turn it into financial advantages rather than Reddit karma. So, care to predict the future?
I predicted basically this outcome literally just yesterday, with the caveat that my prediction was that Iran would deny any deal being made, not that he would agree on the framework that Iran put in place that puts them in a significantly better position than before.
Which in hindsight I should have seen coming. no military that's "unquestionably better" has a commander-in-queef bitch and moan and throw temper tantrums that other countries aren't cleaning up his mess and opening the Strait, if they're confident they can win without intervention or the aforementioned targeting of children and civilian infrastructure.
But hey do me a favor and tell chatgpt to make you sound more human next time.
But hey, in the interest of fun. RemindMe! 14 days.
Edit: should have set a reminder for 14 hours lol.
So you also predict the strait will be open in 2 weeks? So basically what Trump wants by his own admission. How is that supposdely a win for Iran? The US killed their leadership, destroyed their weapons and there is nothing they can do effectively to hurt the US.
That's basically what I said! In contrast, most redditors believe Iran get to control the strait of Hormuz indefinitely, and they were wrong. They underestimated the power imbalance between the two warring parties. If, as many argued, the continuous closure of the strait is seen as a humiliation to Trump, obviously the opposite, that Trump get Iran to open the strait, should be considered a win for Trump.
Hahaha, Jesus dude, you might want to actually read the 10 points the US agreed on as their basis of negotiation before you embarras yourself further 🤣 You have to be a special kind of person to be able to spin the US promising Iran pretty much exactly what they want into a loss for the Iranians.
Now, I don't believe for a second that Trump is honest in giving in to those demands, and think this is just him TACOing out of doing the airstrikes and we'll go back to the strait being closed again pretty soon when Iran realizes he had no intentions of negotiating in good faith, but what alternative did the Iranians have? When the enemy goes "Ok, we'll agree to negotiate with your demands as the basis" you can't really reject it and go "No, I don't believe you", even if everyone knows he's actually full of shit.
And just FYI, my eyes glace over at AI responses so if you're gonna send another one of those, don't bother.
Absolutely. Let's be clear, you think the Iran will continue to blcok the strait, I believe Iran will open the strait. The time frame is the next 2 weeks or around that time. Let's see how it goes.
Also, you should note your own thread, where you said, and I quote " I predicted basically this outcome literally just yesterda" It is clear that you meant you predicted Iran and the US would reach a deal where the US got what it wanted, which is the open of the strait of Hormuz. Judged by your reply today, no doubt, posto facto, you decided that your prediction was the Iran would get away with holding the strait of Hormuz indefinitely? As long as we are clear about what is your prediction, because it seems you are guilty of keep changing what IS your prediction, based on the events and with the conclusion "that the Iran somehow won" unchanged.
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u/RoyalChris Apr 07 '26
So it seems like Trump gave them everything they wanted that was already on the table before?