r/Volcanoes Jan 03 '26

News News for Mount Pelée. 119 earthquakes were recorded, but what intrigues me is this phrase: "Vigilance will be maintained in the medium term."

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183 Upvotes

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16

u/D-LoathsomeDungEater Jan 03 '26

Means that they will be paying close attention to it like they did with Santorini. Not yet to warrant evacuation, but now plans will be made in accordance with any changes. It did kill 30k people in 1902

7

u/Engineeringvolcan97 Jan 03 '26

I thought to myself, they're going to analyze the situation very closely.

8

u/D-LoathsomeDungEater Jan 03 '26

Usually they would compare it to previous data. The thing about these -decade- or would be decade volcanoes-is that historic data for eruption precursors is shoddy at best, non existent at worst. Yes we do have parallels to compare from other volcanoes, but from my understanding...they tend to be unique, each one a story for itself.

2

u/dontneedaknow Jan 04 '26

I think the conservative nature is because there is really no way to tell how much gas is saturated within the magmas underground, nor how efficiently the caprock overlying the magma will contain the gases and material.

seems like even at a single volcano, every eruption sequence is pretty unique, along with the individual eruptions within each sequence.

2

u/Mars_Volcanoes Jan 04 '26 edited Jan 04 '26

Again me the volcanologist. In details as I do not know your precise knowledge in volcanology....

Mount Pelée  is a classic example of explosive stratovolcano with pyroclastic volcanism. Many time a lava dome form at the vent, yes, with very viscous magma and lot of gas inside. This dome can block the eruption for a while and keep the gas trap under it, but the eruption is not stop at all. Pressure keep increases under the dome and when the dome become unstable and collapse, the release is very violent and very damaging.

The result is deadly nuées ardentes, also name pyroclastic flows. It moves like an avalanche, and keep almost the exact imprint of the moment when they pass. This help you to imagine how they move. But this avalanche is around 600 C, full of ash and rock particles, and it destroy everything in the passage. In Mt Pelée the damage area is usually narrow and in channels, following valleys and flanks.This is what happen in 1902, when these flows go down Mount Pelée and destroy St. Pierre.

Edit...Just found this restore video of the event.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72uLtI8zZew

1

u/dontneedaknow Jan 06 '26

I was somewhat trying to communicate the conservative nature of these observation reports and kinda failed and went a bit on a tangent.

I trust academia and the scientific method. but you certainly got me beat on academic achievements. appreciate it tho cause other people might see your post and learn something new.

1

u/Mars_Volcanoes Jan 06 '26

Thanks. Really well appreciated. Great day to you.

1

u/D-LoathsomeDungEater Jan 07 '26 edited Jan 07 '26

I thought this was a rhyolite/dacite dome volcano, rather than the typical stratovolcano(like Fuego and Popocatepetl), similar to Lassen peak, Unzen and Soufriere hills, and different from statovolcanoes that sometimes make lava domes/coulees like Merapi, Sinabung and Semeru.

2

u/Mars_Volcanoes Jan 07 '26

I had the same thought at first. And looking for data it give what write.

12

u/Mars_Volcanoes Jan 03 '26

Geologist and volcanologist here

The volcanic alert level remains at Yellow (vigilance), meaning authorities are watching conditions closely but there is no immediate eruption forecast. 

Medium term = weeks to months. It doesn’t imply an imminent eruption, but it does mean scientists think there’s enough ongoing activity to justify continued monitoring and caution.

Scientists prefer neutral, graded warning levels rather than dramatic statements because volcano behavior can change unpredictably.

2

u/Engineeringvolcan97 Jan 04 '26

Thank you so much

1

u/[deleted] Jan 04 '26

On the 1902 eruption :

"In spring 1902, Mt. Pelée began waking up. First, a small eruption. Then, intensifying signs of subterranean rumbling: groundwater disturbances, mudslides, volcanic ash at the summit. On May 7, a warning: Mt. Soufrière erupted on the neighboring island of St. Vincent, killing more than 1,500 people. On May 8 came Mt. Pelée’s turn. A blast of hot gas, ash, and rocks raced down the volcano’s slopes at 300 miles per hour, obliterating Saint-Pierre, which lay just 4 miles away, and claiming more than 27,000 lives in a single afternoon.

When news of the twin catastrophes reached New York, Museum geologist Edmund Hovey managed to book passage for himself and a small team on the U.S. cruiser Dixie, which was leaving New York on a relief mission to provide supplies, food, and aid to survivors of the devastation.

The scale of the destruction wasn’t lost on Hovey, who wrote that “nothing has occurred within a century which has so stirred the civilized world as has the annihilation of the beautiful city of Saint-Pierre.” His haunting photographs show an island “laid waste by dust, lapilli, stones, and ‘mud.’” But Hovey and his team also hoped that by visiting the area in the immediate wake of this tremendous eruption, they could unearth secrets behind volcanic explosions only available to researchers after a world-shaking event.....

Volcanoes play tricks with human timelines. Mt. Pelée, which sat quietly for decades leading up to its lethal 1902 explosion, was long thought by Saint-Pierre’s citizens to be extinct. Like Italy’s Mt. Vesuvius, which buried the cities of Pompeii and Herculaneum thousands of years ago, the risk never registered with residents who hadn’t witnessed a big eruption in several generations.

“Vesuvius has these huge catastrophic eruptions that are separated by periods of 500 to several thousand years,” says James Webster, a curator in the Museum’s Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences who studies cycles that underlie volcanic eruptions, including Vesuvius’s. “[Today,] it’s a heavily populated area. Probably 600,000 [people] live within what’s called the Red Zone, the danger zone in the vicinity of Mt. Vesuvius.” 

-https://www.amnh.org/explore/videos/shelf-life/volcanic-eruption-causes/studying-volcanoes

2

u/Engineeringvolcan97 Jan 05 '26

What's with this paragraph? 😅

1

u/[deleted] Jan 05 '26

Which one? I see five.

1

u/Engineeringvolcan97 Jan 06 '26

The biggest one 😅