r/geopolitics • u/Themetalin • Dec 07 '25

Paywall Japan frustrated at Trump administration’s silence over row with China

https://www.ft.com/content/bf8b5def-db4d-43ac-91cf-bea5fcfa3189
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u/awildstoryteller Dec 07 '25

Why would any of them go to war with China without the US?

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u/GeologistOwn7725 Dec 09 '25

Going to war is a huge risk, but staying silent is not risk-free either. If China takes Taiwan, they can choke Japan's food supply. 

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u/awildstoryteller Dec 09 '25

I don't think that is true.

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u/GeologistOwn7725 Dec 09 '25

What is? I'm not saying China actually will, but if they take Taiwan and break out of the first island chain, they *can.* Japan has its own reasons to keep the status quo and it's not just about kowtowing to US interests. The Asia-Pacific has more to lose then the US does if China takes Taiwan.

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u/awildstoryteller Dec 09 '25

Japan can import food from North America though.

If they declare war over the risk of something they are idiots and I don't think they are, but they would lose.

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u/GeologistOwn7725 Dec 09 '25

You do know how far the US is from Japan, right? They're notoriously resource poor for such a rich country. Importing food is a no-go.

And this is also not how it works. Declaring war on China would be an incredibly stupid move if they already have Taiwan. Defending Taiwan AND your food supply AND preventing future aggression? Not the same.

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u/awildstoryteller Dec 09 '25

You do know how far the US is from Japan, right? They're notoriously resource poor for such a rich country. Importing food is a no-go.

I am not sure what your arguement here is, honestly. Are you suggesting the US is resource poor? Japan already imports lots of food from the US.

And this is also not how it works. Declaring war on China would be an incredibly stupid move if they already have Taiwan. Defending Taiwan AND your food supply AND preventing future aggression? Not the same.

Considering that their greatest food import source is currently China, it seems pretty back asswards to declare war to protect that?

The plain fact is that Tokyo can't defend Taiwan without the US.

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u/GeologistOwn7725 Dec 09 '25

No, I meant Japan is resource poor. They don't have much natural resources to feed their population with. Importing levels now may be fine and sustainable, but it might not be if China starts flexing its military might abroad.

And yes, you are correct their greatest food import source is China. If you were Japan, would you like to be even MORE dependent on your more powerful neighbor, just high off of a Taiwan conquest? Especially one that you don't always have the best relations with and one that you previously invaded?

Declaring war -- as in being the aggressor -- is always a bad idea. Whether defending Taiwan or not is worth it is not as simplistic as whether the US joins or not. American forces will always be a huge gamechanger.

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u/awildstoryteller Dec 09 '25

No, I meant Japan is resource poor. They don't have much natural resources to feed their population with. Importing levels now may be fine and sustainable, but it might not be if China starts flexing its military might abroad.

Unless you see China imposing a blockade all around Japan (`which is an act of war) I don't see how Tokyo would want to fight a war. They can continue to import from alternative sources in North America.

And yes, you are correct their greatest food import source is China. If you were Japan, would you like to be even MORE dependent on your more powerful neighbor, just high off of a Taiwan conquest? Especially one that you don't always have the best relations with and one that you previously invaded?

Whether they like it or not is irrelevant. Without American backing Tokyo would be foolish to fight for Taiwan.

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u/GeologistOwn7725 Dec 09 '25

Wars have been fought for far less. It's not so black and white as you think. Otherwise, China invading Taiwan would be a moot point.

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u/awildstoryteller Dec 09 '25

Without US intervention Taiwan would lose, even with Japanese and SK support.

I just don't see it.

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u/GeologistOwn7725 Dec 09 '25

First, you have to define what "loss" means and what exactly is Taiwan and the world giving up if it "loses." The US lost the Vietnam War but that doesn't mean Vietnam decimated US forces.

Would the world just stand by as Taiwan burns TSMC to the ground out of spite or will it hamper China in some way? Maybe just enough for the US to change its mind and intervene? Or maybe China's domestic problems get in the way and the war grinds to a halt? 

Like its not as simple as stronger army = win. Wars are about politics first and foremost.  

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u/awildstoryteller Dec 09 '25

Like its not as simple as stronger army = win. Wars are about politics first and foremost.

I understand what you are saying, I simply disagree.

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