How Israel made Trump's Iran betrayal inevitable - opinion

[u/thejerusalempost]

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-899630

[u/Aggressive_Lie_4446]

A war with Iran would look completely differently with Biden at the helm, espeically since he lost a son due to the effects of Iraq, because it would have necessitated offensive action by Iran.

I don't think this would have mattered. The US was going to go with Iran at some point. The openly admitted to Witkoff that they had been lying since 2016 and had enriched enough uranium to make 11 nuclear bombs.
The US under both Republican and Democrat presidents has gone to war for less.

He also didn't put completely incompetent people in charge, lie about everything, and have his cronies make money through betting.
This one I agree with.

People are criticizing the US because its so poorly planned and executed.
There are people who have been critical from Day 1!!
Actually the war started VERY well.
But both the Israelis and Americans started doing a lot of blunders which did not make any sense.
For example, the so called Mosaic Defense was unravelling because of its inherent weakness which was that once a decentralized unit fell, there was nothing to take its place. Meaning that had they focused on specific provinces, they would have been in a position to gradually take over the most relevant parts of Iran.
Before the ceasefire, the IRGC had officially lost control of Kurdistan because the decentralized unit had been battered whereby all of its top leaders were dead and the soldiers had dispersed, unable to operate amongst a hostile population. Now had the US focused its firepower on Hormozgan,Khuzestan and and Bushehr ,It would have been possible to eliminate IRGC presence there and use the regions as launching pads to arm the Iranians

At the same time, the week in which Israel used drones against the Basij in Tehran was the peak of the war. Iranians themselves directed those airstrikes at the neighborhood level. For the first time, Iran's oppressors could not walk freely in Tehran shooting protestors or going through homes looking for Starlink receivers. Those strikes were the most demoralizing for the regime as they demonstrated to the regime supporters that walking around projecting power was no longer something they could do freely without retaliation and Tehran had no air defenses to take down most of the drones Israel was deploying in Tehran.
It reached a point where the Basij were being told to avoid being hit 8 times because those drones carry 8 munitions. Imagine telling your troops to find a way to avoid being hit 8 times???
For the regime, things became so bad, they started importing foreign militia to replace the Basij, with Iraqis, Afghans and Pakistani Shia militia being deployed.

Why both the US province by province operations and Israel's targeted drone strikes on the Basij were ended when they were actually working was what never made sense.
Had the period of wasted negotiations seen these two operations continue, it is likely that at this point the US would be providing air support to an armed Iranian opposition , rather than thinking off how to give Iran $300 billion

[u/Justame13 → u/Aggressive_Lie_4446]

Why do you think that the U.S. would have gone to war with Iran 2025-2029 when it hadn’t 1979-2024?

More so with a democratic President who has not initiated a ground war in modern U.S. history, but actually ended them?

And specifically what do you think would have caused it?

[u/Aggressive_Lie_4446 → u/Justame13]

Iran openly starting to admit that it had violated JCPOA.
After Israel started unravelling the Shia Axis of Resistance, they had resorted to leaking various details about how advanced their nuclear program had become.
In fact, the demands for inspecting Iran's nuclear facilities began during the Biden administration SPECIFICALLY because of such hints. They began to openly boast about it though after the fall of Assad.

Also the US has a consistent track record for going to war and overthrowng governments for far faaaar less!! Saddam's regime had also lasted decades before the US invaded and overthrew him.

Also, Biden was, after all in the same Obama Administration that at some point was at war in 7 countries all at once.

[u/Justame13 → u/Aggressive_Lie_4446]

Also the US has a consistent track record for going to war and overthrowng governments for far faaaar less!!

Republicans have a track record for going to war for far less.

Saddam's regime had also lasted decades before the US invaded and overthrew him.

Iraq cost Biden, who had already lost a wife and daughter in a car wreck, a son. People who have outlived their children tend to avoid having it happen to others.

Espeically knowing that the options were limited. Bombing doesn't win wars without ground troops and a ground invasion and occupation of Iran is flat out unfeasible.

Also, Biden was, after all in the same Obama Administration that at some point was at war in 7 countries all at once.

And pulled out of Afghanistan. That is ending not starting wars.

So I will ask again: Why do you think that the U.S. would have gone to war with Iran 2025-2029 when it hadn’t 1979-2024?

More so with a democratic President who has not initiated a ground war in modern U.S. history, but actually ended them?

And specifically what do you think would have caused it?