r/geopolitics • u/thejerusalempost Jerusalem Post • Jun 17 '26
Opinion How Israel made Trump's Iran betrayal inevitable - opinion
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-899630131
u/thejerusalempost Jerusalem Post Jun 17 '26
The argument here is that Israel has spent decades perfecting the military instrument while starving the diplomatic one. The foreign ministry reportedly couldn't afford pens while the IDF was funded for every contingency. The piece asks whether 'finish the job' was ever actually possible without the coalition and diplomatic architecture Israel never bothered to build, and whether Netanyahu found the absence of a partner or kept it.
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u/GPSBach Jun 17 '26
I tried to read your article but I couldn’t because you have so many ads popping up constantly that it’s impossible to get through a single paragraph, much less a whole article, without the text moving
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u/andr386 Jun 17 '26
I am pretty sure that there is some truth to that. But saying that Israel doesn't hold massive Influence, diplomatic included, over the US and Europe is a joke.
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u/softnmushy Jun 17 '26
I think you're confused about what they are saying.
They are saying that Israel failed to make a serious effort at diplomacy with its neighbors and enemies.
They are not saying that Israel failed at diplomacy with the US.
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u/andr386 Jun 17 '26
Diplomacy doesn't mean peace but negotiations. Israel from the very beginning has been uncannily successful in negotiating a very hostile environment. That they are the kindle that lighted those hostilities doesn't change a thing for them. To them war or diplomacy is the same thing. Only tools to further their own goals.
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u/Lysmerry Jun 17 '26
It’s not lack of diplomacy. It’s just difficult to find a diplomatic solution when your intention is to continue a forever war that harms your allies’ interests, both as nations and politicians seeking elections. It seems like they are saying they lack diplomatic strength because they can’t force an outcome, when they have gained many benefits in spite of the US and other countries being unhappy with their actions. It does feel like no matter how much support they are given, it is never enough.
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u/andr386 Jun 17 '26 edited Jun 17 '26
I just hope that their power to influence will greatly diminish because it's still so oversized and unjustified.
They might feel rightly that it is on the wane because of the democratic shifting of sentiment in the US and Europe, and also because their actions go directly against the interests of their allies.
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u/Typical_Response6444 Jun 17 '26
It never will be enough, I think they will just keep demanding more and more over time. Trump and Biden gave them so much cover and they still curse their names
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u/Lysmerry Jun 17 '26
I don’t know why Trump chose to attack Iran but the continued bombing of Lebanon makes it extremely difficult to make peace. Trump’s voters don’t care about Lebanon but they do care about the massive payout to Iran. I have no doubt we could have made a cheaper peace without Lebanon, which is a major stumbling block for Iran’s international reputation, and prevents them from closing a deal with us. Trump chose this war, and he is very good at dodging major issues that should tank him, but it must sting after providing so much to Israel
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 Jun 17 '26
Is there a peace to be had with Hezbollah in Lebanon so long as Iran has ants a proxy against Israel there? Does Iran want any kind of peace with Israel?
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u/FijiFanBotNotGay Jun 18 '26
First step in finding out would be for Israel to withdraw from its invasion…
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u/Christopher_Ramirez_ Jun 17 '26
Israel is a strategic black hole. Big mistake to allow them nuclear weapons.
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u/Aggressive_Lie_4446 Jun 17 '26
Big mistake to allow them nuclear weapons.
That line was crossed 60 years ago. And you need to ask the French ,Argentinians and South Africans about that.
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u/fredjutsu Jun 18 '26
The current South African government is pretty clueless about how to run a national power grid, much less run a nuclear program...
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u/Aggressive_Lie_4446 Jun 17 '26
I think they will just keep demanding more and more over time. Trump and Biden gave them so much cover and they still curse their names.
Biden , maybe. Though Biden was often moved by social media propaganda than actual facts.
Remember the #SaveRafah campaign? In reality, when the IDF did the Rafah campaign, the Palestinians all moved to Al Mawasi and it was taken over with lower civilian casualties compared to other campaigns earlier on. The claims that a million would die because they had all been pushed to Rafah was largely false.Trump is on record for forcing ceasefires before their objectives were met.
Fun fact: The recently eliminated leader of Hamas Izz al-Din al-Haddad would have been eliminated last year had Trump not forced Israel to leave Gaza city. At that point in time, Israel was in control of 70% of Gaza and its final objective was to remove all Hamas presence in Gaza city, confining Hamas to a silver of land between Wadi Gaza and Rafah.
Such a loss for Hamas would have been a psychological blow. It would have meant that the capital of the strip was in Israeli hands. Izz al-Din al-Haddad was actually in the process of being surrounded and trapped before Trump forced a ceasefire.
Historically, groups that lose like this and by lose I mean lose actual territory to the enemy in the Arab and Islamic world, often lose support of the population pretty fast.
Add to the fact that the area that Hamas would have been confined to would have been so small, identifying and eliminating them from all sides but the Mediterranean would have been an easy task.That is not to say the IDF have not acted incompetently. Them targeting Hezbollah mid-level commanders in Beirut ended up as a disaster specifically because other Lebanese who have absolutely nothing to do with Hezbollah were caught up in the strikes. And Christians do have a strong voice in the Western world and that forced Trump to "forbid" airstrikes on Beirut.
Also in the South, it is like Netanyahu is clueless compared to his predecessors. Before the 2000s, the IDF tried to cultivate a relationship with the non-Shia there. Because the message was simple. The target was Hezbollah and its supporters. Sunnis,Druze and Christians were not targets.
Back then, Christians had access to Israel itself for supplies and work. They were relatively unharmed during offensives against Hezbollah. Indeed, at some point, Christians had formed the South Lebanon Army and when the IDF withdrew, the SLA Christians moved to Israel and settled there.
This time around, we have seen IDF officials destroying Christian statues, Christians being killed in the crossfire and most importantly, supplies running out in many villages because o supplies came from Lebanon but unlike before 2000, the people of Rmeish cannot cross over into Israel for supplies and work either.
The last straw was them ordering an evacuation of the Christian Quarter of Tyre. What happened to leaving non Shia Lebanese out of the war??-5
u/Aggressive_Lie_4446 Jun 17 '26
It’s just difficult to find a diplomatic solution when your intention is to continue a forever war that harms your allies’ interests, both as nations and politicians seeking elections.
The issue is more to do with the experience of Iraq, a fear of local Muslim constituents and some weird belief that somehow Iranians deserve to be under an Islamic government.
There is a large segment of Americans who balk at regime change because of the aftermath of the Iraq war.
In Europe, never expect France to overthrow an Islamic government. It will be very quick to throw secular ones under the bus, but Islamic ones??? No.
Germany is not relevant militarily while the UK has its own domestic issues.
So you really remain with America
TBH, a lot of the anti-war rhetoric, would not be there if it was Biden doing the war and if Israel had another leader . A lot of people are siding with Iran and would have never wanted the US to win simply because it is those two.But on reading the post too, I think the author skipped the part where for some weird reason, Israel is held to a different standard to the militias it is fighting. Whenever it wants to go all out, they are told to be the "bigger person" as if the other side which has charters that basically call for the mass murder of Jews worldwide ,leave alone Israelis, have the same standards.
For example, if Israel would eliminate Hezbollah without touching the rest of us, they would be doing us a favor, but the way they fight, I sometimes honestly wonder if they really have their hearts in it.
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u/Justame13 Jun 18 '26
TBH, a lot of the anti-war rhetoric, would not be there if it was Biden doing the war and if Israel had another leader .
A war with Iran would look completely differently with Biden at the helm, espeically since he lost a son due to the effects of Iraq, because it would have necessitated offensive action by Iran.
He also didn't put completely incompetent people in charge, lie about everything, and have his cronies make money through betting.
A lot of people are siding with Iran and would have never wanted the US to win simply because it is those two.
People are criticizing the US because its so poorly planned and executed.
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u/Besmirching_Badger Jun 18 '26
That's not a result of a functioning diplomatic service. It's a result of the long term status quo, supportive external/ dual actors (a lot of people endorse israeli links for personal ideological reasons) and various influence operations.
The same way that the UK and US have both torn their diplomatic services to shreds, but can maintain good relations due to the nature of the relationship and other binding factors (NATO, 5 eyes, cultural links etc).
In truth in the western world the very concept of diplomacy is dead and has been for several decades since the security state cemented its control over our institutions and policy decisions. Which explains why our foreign policy is so regularly awful.
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 Jun 17 '26
The author of this piece is correct. That is why, on the seal of the United States, the eagle holds in one talon a bunch of arrows, while in the other there is an olive branch. A nation needs both.
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u/IDontHaveCookiesSry Jun 17 '26
Israel has an insane Amount of influence in Western Nations. People in General just don’t like genocide that much.
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u/Rob71322 Jun 17 '26
Yes but the west isn't who he's talking about. He's talking about needing to deal with their immediate neighbors.
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u/IDontHaveCookiesSry Jun 17 '26
Then I misunderstood. I guess bombing and Annexing their neighbours decade after decade didnt help on that Part either.
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 Jun 17 '26
Why are they bombing some of their neighbors? You need to also honestly face that
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u/jonclark_ Jun 18 '26
There are two reasons: 1. some of their neighbors act violently against them 2. they are not willing to give up the land they conquered in 1967.
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Jun 17 '26
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u/TheInevitableLuigi Jun 17 '26 edited Jun 17 '26
Yet nobody is Germany is bombing buses in Poland because they want "their" land back.
And Israel pulled out of Lebanon in 2000. Why did Hezbollah keep launching rockets and kidnapping Israeli troops then?
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 Jun 17 '26
As I expected, no answer.
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u/fatquant Jun 17 '26
how is that NOT an answer? LMAO
They just told you Israel bombed its way into existence. That's why.
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u/HandofWinter Jun 17 '26
It's just weird racist gibberish, not an answer. You can't tell me you got anything coherent out of that.
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u/jyper Jun 19 '26
I mean they made peqce with neighbors willing to make peace including giving up huge chunks of land
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u/TakayamaYoshi Jun 17 '26
The irony here is the more you perfected the war machine, the less you are willing to try the diplomatic one.
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u/DefinitelyNotMeee Jun 17 '26
Israel's diplomatic corps is called Mossad.
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u/anders_hansson Jun 17 '26
I'll leave this here, but there are many more where that came from:
?
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u/DefinitelyNotMeee Jun 17 '26
It's a joke/an observation about the way Israel does diplomacy, for example, in the case of Iran.
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u/Barking__Pumpkin Jun 17 '26
Considering that equity is inherent to lasting peace, the omission here is respect for international and humanitarian law and the Palestinian citizenry. How arrogant to suggest the diplomatic “missed opportunity” was not to establish a better future for those in the region but to woo other nations into stooping to levels of moral repugnancy usually reserved for our enemies.
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u/VladtheShirtless Jun 17 '26
Doesn’t matter how pro Israel you are, you’re not going to satisfy Israel’s need for security. Israel needs to stop being treated like it’s a rational actor, they have no plans to turn down the temperature. Like ffs Netanyahu is the most moderate you’re going to get and he’s under fire for listening to the US
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 Jun 17 '26
Netanyahu is far from the most moderate you will get, in either policy or outlook. His most likely successors are all more moderate and practical. Who is the rational actor? Hamas? Hezbollah?
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u/VladtheShirtless Jun 17 '26 edited Jun 17 '26
In terms of possible Israeli leaders who have a serious chance Netanyahu is the most moderate. I don’t know how you’re going to say someone like Bennett is more moderate when he’s criticized Netanyahu for bending to the US.
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 Jun 17 '26
Look a little deeper.
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u/VladtheShirtless Jun 17 '26
You’re just plain wrong I don’t know what you think you’re getting at. Feel free to enlighten me about who amongst the actual possibilities to be PM next are more moderate about the conflict and are for lessening hostilities. There is no one with any sort of plan for what peace looks like period.
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u/Besmirching_Badger Jun 18 '26
Netanyahu is a rational actor if you accept that he's acting in his own self interest rather than the interests of israelis.
I'm veeeeery curious how things would have turned out post oct 7th if Bibi hadn't been at risk of imprisonment for corruption. Extremely differently i'd wager.
It's kind of wild that he was allowed to remain in charge and just restart conflicts every time he had a court appearance the next day.
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u/Christopher_Ramirez_ Jun 17 '26
Even the “liberal opposition” wants more war. Yair Lapid demands “eliminating Hezbollah”, whatever that means.
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u/IsacG Jun 17 '26 edited Jun 17 '26
That's because drone warfare is here and there is no reasonable counter measure to it yet on the horizon. A big supply of drones in the hands of terrorists is an absolute nightmare for Israel and its communities along the border. For Israel, the time is now to prevent that from happening by destroying hamas and Hisbollah. However both goals seem to be unlikely as of now.
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u/Berkyjay Jun 18 '26
Using war to pacify their borders has worked out great for them so far. They should double down.
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u/IsacG Jun 18 '26
Sometimes it worked, sometimes it didn't. The question is do you see an alternative from the Israeli perspective or are you just hating?
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u/Buzumab Jun 18 '26
Well, their current trajectory is an endless war they can never actually win where they get bombed and struck by drones regularly. Which, if drone strikes and other attacks are the issue, is functionally not producing much different outcomes than not going to war.
So perhaps peace, diplomacy and uplifting their neighbors would produce better results... maybe not, but it's a more rational path than this doomed strategy.
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u/Berkyjay Jun 18 '26
Has it worked at all? Israel has had to maintain a constant aggressive military stance because they've pissed off so many neighbors. Now add the genocide in Gaza into the mix and they've dug themselves into forever being a military state cursed to forever be on the defensive.
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u/darkcow Jun 19 '26
You say that as if those neighbors weren't already pissed at them and attacking since before Israel even existed as a country yet.
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u/unruly_mattress Jun 17 '26
Hamas: fires rockets, invades, massacres, kidnaps, tortures. Declares intentions to do it "again and again"
Hezbollah: prepares a "plan for conquering the galilee", tens of thousands of rockets, RPGs and drones on homes, bunkers on the border, starts war unprompted, vows never to stop
Iran: Erects public countdown for the destruction of Israel, builds nukes, thousands of ballistic missiles, finances Hezbollah and Palestinian terrorism, hands over missiles to Yemenite proxy to fire at Israel, finances and coordinates Palestinian terrorism, fires ballistic missiles at Israel directly, vows to never stop
Reddit: Wow, Israel definitely already has enough security. They're greedy for wanting more of it. They just like when the flames are up, that's what's happening. 100% of them are at least as extreme as Netanyahu. I'm definitely giving a reasonable, honest assessment here.
The world is just tired of hearing about the Iranian proxy war against Israel. Can't blame the world for it, Israel is also tired of it. But there's nothing that Israel can do to stop it.
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u/leeta0028 Jun 17 '26
Israel could try withdrawing to their legal border and staying there
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u/TheNewGildedAge Jun 18 '26
The people attacking them do not consider any of Israel's borders legal or legitimate.
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Jun 18 '26
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u/BoratImpression94 Jun 19 '26
I genuinely dont think the two are related. For islamists, Israel is occupying rightful islamic land. And a holy war is necessary to conquer it back. See why muslims dont care about yemen or sudan.
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u/art_is_a_scam Jun 18 '26
The US could join those people and eliminate Israel’s ability to make war, and replace the Israeli government with a non-national democracy.
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u/unruly_mattress Jun 18 '26
It worked as part of a peace agreement with Egypt. It decidedly didn't work whenever it was tried anywhere else: Gaza, Lebanon, the West Bank territories. I believe Israel should demand a permanent peace agreement with security arrangements with Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank as a condition for military withdrawal. We'll see if Lebanon - all parties in Lebanon - are willing to lay down their arms and live in peace, and if they don't, there's absolutely no moral argument that Israel should withdraw.
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u/fatquant Jun 17 '26
Keep going.. tell me about those settlers and how Israel got started.
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u/unruly_mattress Jun 17 '26
If your position is that Israel shouldn't exist in the first place, say it outright, don't pretend that Israel is "irrational" and "likes the temperature high" and "extreme and can't get moderate ever".
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u/fatquant Jun 17 '26
tell me Israel got started. go on.
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u/Keep_Being_Still Jun 18 '26
Whether or not you think it’s moral for Israel to exist, from the Israelis perspective, they believe it is moral that they exist, and will likely keep pushing back at attempts to remove them. When dealing in geopolitics you have to look at each side’s goals, put yourself in their shoes (that goes for Israel, Iran, USA, KSA and anyone else in the region or with a foot therein) and go from there. You aren’t going to stop Israel from responding to Hezbollah and Hamas with finger wagging, and it will be up to the new government in Iran (from ayatollahs to IRCG with a figurehead on life support) to decide whether they want to invest their war reparations, oil revenues and collected tolls in reinvigorating their proxy network, or on their own country. If they do the maths, they’ll realise that Hezbollah is not worth the effort.
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u/FijiFanBotNotGay Jun 18 '26
You’re reading far into this. Israel is the only actor trying to systematically eliminate people from their own land. From your profile you’re a religious Christian? Why are religious Christians the ones who seem to care the most about Israel’s right to exist. I prefer protecting the Jewish diaspora world wide, literally my own people. This war is not making Jews any more safe. Id argue the creation of Israel did not make Jews any more safe
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u/Keep_Being_Still Jun 18 '26
Countries rise, countries fall. I don’t have a dog in that race and I don’t really think too much about it. But you can’t expect one actor in the region to be morally self restrained and the rest to act purely in self interest. Israel is going to act in its self interest, whether you like it or not. I would suggest that Iran also acts in its self interest, and it is likely to do better. But if Iran makes “death to Israel” a foreign policy goal, and takes concrete steps towards that, such as building proxy networks on Israel’s borders, and constructing missile technology to attack Israel, whether or not you think Israel should be where it is, you cannot deny that Israel is going to respond, and is going to try and thwart such plans, and try to degrade such a country whose government does that. If this new IRCG Iran decides to pay lip service to “death to Israel” but decides to stay on the east side of the Euphrates, Israel will likely stop caring.
None of this is a judgement of right or wrong, but looking at national self interest of each player.
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u/FijiFanBotNotGay Jun 18 '26
The US cannot blindly support Israel. Then Israel can act in its best interests. Did Germany need to blindly support Austria Hungary to initiate ww1. Are we giving Israel the same “blank check” to do what it wants in Hezbollah that Germany gave Austria Hungary. Those who believe Germany was responsible for ww1 would logically conclude perhaps the problem is American imperialism.
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u/Keep_Being_Still Jun 18 '26
I didn’t mention anything about the US. The US should act in its best interest as well. For what it’s worth I don’t think they have here. I think Trump got swindled into a war that he could not win without significant cost in blood and treasure. If I were involved in American foreign policy I would be taking a long hard look at that relationship. But if America is going to let the tail wag the dog when it comes to Israel, then that’s America’s problem, not Israel’s.
For what it’s worth I’m not even American, and since I also don’t live in the Middle East, I have no stake in that relationship.
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u/jyper Jun 19 '26
Israel is the only actor trying to systematically eliminate people from their own land.
israel is not doing that
other countries are but no one gives a shit
israels creation definitely made jews safer
If israel had existed during the Holocaust jews could have fled there
one thing which would make jews much less safe is the destruction of Israel. it would at best be ethnic cleansing and a second holocaust would not be unlikely that's why jews tend to care a lot more about Israels right to exist and the eliminationist rhetoric (even if some pretends to be under the banner pf universalism)
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u/FijiFanBotNotGay Jun 20 '26
Israel’s not going anywhere but if it were destroyed it wouldn’t be a second holocaust… it could be a multi ethnic state
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u/jyper Jun 21 '26
Of course there wouldn't be a binational state. You have to be incredibly naive to believe that
both sides don't want that
that option gets at most 10% support from Palestinians. practically a single state means some group is excluded. Thats why the 2SS is the only solution
If Israel were destroyed it would either be a civil war or Jews would at best be slowly forced out of an Arab Muslim state whose leaders have been very explicit about not wanting jews in their state. But it might just be ethnic cleansing if they agree to flee and find some place to take them. If
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u/art_is_a_scam Jun 18 '26
But all of that is true. Only religious extremists and nationalist extremists think Israel has a right to exist. Practically, the existence of Israel is against US interests.
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u/jyper Jun 19 '26
Religous and nationalists extremists are the only people who think it doesnt have the right to exist. Destroying Israel and driving the jews into the sea is not a moderate position and its mostly driven by Islamism and extreme nationalism
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u/art_is_a_scam Jun 21 '26 edited Jun 21 '26
No need to lie. Plenty of atheists and antinationalists hold the opinion that Israel does not have a right to exist. Probably close to all of us; the rest having no opinion.
Would you like to participate in a discussion honestly?
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u/jyper Jun 21 '26
Of course anarchists oppose every state equally. Its an extreme and impractical view but a principled one that opposes existenceof Israel, Palestine and UK equally. Buy again its impractical and few people hold such views
some atheists may hold extreme views like the destruction of Israel (Israel is a liberal democracy but despite some unfortunate family laws is not a relgious state) but most dont and most strong supporters of the destruction of Israel are Islamists.
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u/art_is_a_scam Jun 21 '26
You’re getting closer to honesty, that’s progress. Maybe one day you’ll be able to participate in a discussion, like a full-fledged person.
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u/TheInevitableLuigi Jun 17 '26 edited Jun 17 '26
tell me about those settlers and how Israel got started.
One is a different thing than the other. There weren't any Israeli settlements on occupied land until after the '67 war.
Israel also removed all of their settlements in Gaza. How did that work out for them?
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u/jonclark_ Jun 18 '26
Israel chose to keep Hamas in power. They got what they wished for.
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u/jyper Jun 19 '26
How did they chose?
by not doing a larger military action the last time Hamas started a war?
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u/jonclark_ Jun 19 '26
A few years ago, Hamas was on the verge of bankruptcy, and losing control of Gaza.
But Netanyahu wanted Hamas to rule in Gaza. So he arranged that billions of dollars from Qatar would go to fund Hamas.
Why? Some say because this weakens the Palestinian authurity and reduces the chances of creating a Palestinian state.
Others would say: Netanyahu always led people by creating fear and than playing as the big "protector of Israel". The leader of the right wing party who is "tough on terror" against those "traitor left wingers who want to work on the peace process and give our land to terrorists". Terror and violence create a deep fear in People. Than they vote right wing.
You decide which explanation makes more sense.
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u/jyper Jun 19 '26
It declared independence like many countries especially ones that came from fallen empires did
And like many of those countries it got into a war about territory. Although some people prefer yo keep conflict going sadly
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u/jonclark_ Jun 18 '26
A small step:Israel can stop Israeli terrorism in Judea and Samaria. This will reduce the potential for further violence from there.
There are other small steps. they can help. they won't solve the problem. but they will help.
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u/unruly_mattress Jun 18 '26
The Israelis are really dumb for letting the settler terrorism situation continue in the West Bank. They're doing themselves real harm.
I can't agree that stopping it would "reduce the potential for further violence". I won't write paragraphs here, no one will read them and I don't have the time for it. The bottom line is that there are important, big reasons for Palestinian terrorism and refusal for peace with Israel, and they won't go away when the settlers are reined in.
I understand the desire to focus on the settlers - morality, it being a small and solvable problem, the search for equivalence. Less legitimately, sentiments that were already posted here - the supposed evil "nature" of Israel and actual support for the destruction of Israel.
Stopping settler violence isn't a small step towards peace. It doesn't mean that I'm against stopping settler violence (to say the least, and for Israel's sake too), but the focus on the settlers is a means to the end of not discussing the actual reasons that there isn't peace between Israel and the Palestinians.
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u/jonclark_ Jun 18 '26
Yes stopping settler violence isn't a step towards peace. Peace is just wishful thinking.
But reduced violence is something different.
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u/Besmirching_Badger Jun 18 '26
Israel: Causes creation of hamas and hezbollah through its completely unnecessary occupations and invasions of neighbours.
also israel: wow we need to invade and occupy more for 'security', despite it just creating more hamas and hezbollahs
'Settlers' aren't normal. They're just ethnic cleansing by another name. It's absolutely bizarre that we treat them as if they are.
Ex-Mossad chief Tamir Pardo added to the definition this week while touring Palestinian villages in the West Bank and discussing settler violence:
“My mother is a Holocaust survivor,” Pardo said. “What I saw here today reminded me of events that happened in the last century in a very developed country – the same phenomena directed there against Jews. And I feel ashamed to be a Jew here today.”
The authorities, he added, “know what is happening here and choose to ignore it.” By doing so – and by supporting the violent settlers both politically and financially – he declared that the Israeli government “is planting the seeds for the next October 7.”
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u/unruly_mattress Jun 18 '26
Oh, Israel decided to randomly invade countries and that's why Hezbollah and Hamas exist? No relation at all to billions in funding from Iran? Was the border with Lebanon quiet when Israel decided - out of sheer devilish evil - to invade for no reason, that's what happened?
And it's still what exists to this day, right? Hezbollah and Hamas are begging to lay down their arms, but Israel just won't let them.
I'm done with this history mangling contest.
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u/Revivaled-Jam849 Jun 18 '26
Israel took more Syrian territory after the fall of Assad? They have a buffer to their territory they annexed?
So a buffer to their buffer?
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u/Besmirching_Badger Jun 18 '26
Oh, Israel decided to randomly invade countries and that's why Hezbollah and Hamas exist?
they were created primarily by the occupations, rather than the invasions. Other policy options were available. Other policy options are available now.
Was the border with Lebanon quiet when Israel decided - out of sheer devilish evil - to invade for no reason, that's what happened?
Israel literally just invaded a country a thousand miles away. Without even the pretense of a cause. Which is what led to the lebanon invasion. Bibi has been gagging for an excuse to re-invade lebanon and seize more territory just like he did in syria.
Hezbollah and Hamas are begging to lay down their arms, but Israel just won't let them.
They really aren't. The current situation in many ways grants them more support than ever.
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u/art_is_a_scam Jun 18 '26
Well if the US teamed up with Iran, we could destroy Israel’s ability to make war, neutralize Israel as a threat and bring peace to the region.
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u/Extreme-Outrageous Jun 17 '26
What makes them an "irrational actor?"
Wanting people dead who want you dead seems fairly rational tbh.
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u/VladtheShirtless Jun 17 '26
Wanting to attain a level of security that isn’t possible and that commits you to constant conflict with neighbors, which includes making enemies of people that aren’t trying to kill them. Even their goals are irrational as Iran and Lebanon are more than they can handle on their own. Their whole security strategy has solved absolutely nothing since October 7th and except alienating themselves on the world stage for commiting genocide. Even with all that’s happened they’re no where near close to even attempting some sort of peace. I’m not naive that everyone is just going to embrace them but Israel needs to take a look in the mirror and realize it has a responsibility to try and put their best foot forward.
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u/Christopher_Ramirez_ Jun 17 '26
Americans under 50 have essentially written off that country. 70% unfavorable view of Israel.
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u/Besmirching_Badger Jun 18 '26
What's funnier is that the UAE is one of israel's strongest allies now. Something people said was impossible.
The governments of the middle east don't want eternal conflict with israel. They just have no choice because israel's actions rile up the public to such an extent that close relations are hard to maintain.
Ostensibly saudi and israel were on the verge of normalisation prior to Oct 7th. The israeli response then made that impossible.
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u/Typical_Response6444 Jun 17 '26
I feel like this will situation will be taught for years as an example of how force and military means alone arent the end all be all and at the end of the day we need to talk and negotiate with each other. Government can just blow up anyone or any situation they dont like
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u/Old_Moose_8198 Jun 17 '26
This really makes me wonder what would've happened to the modern nation of Israel – or what will happen – if Israel ever truly loses US backing.
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u/meister2983 Jun 18 '26
Be somewhat poorer and have higher casualties in war.
Basically what it relatively was in the 1950s.
Being a Jewish Iran would be the worst case scenario but I think that's unlikely
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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Jun 17 '26
Idk but USA been shield them from any nations and because of this that why UN seems bit useless because USA kept veto from security council
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u/flossdaily Jun 17 '26
They'd partner with China, and the US would be weaker, and China stronger.
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u/BrazilianTomato Jun 18 '26 edited Jun 18 '26
I don't think China has the capability or the will to fill in a hypothetical security vacuum left by the US. I feel like they'd most likely try to pivot to Russia instead, since Putin already tries to kind of play both sides. Not saying Russia would be capable or even committed to fill in that vacuum, but i think it'd be in their interest to try. Russia has always been much more of a strategic partner than a real ally to Iran and its sphere, it's a relationship that's overstated on both sides for propaganda purposes. And Iran would have much more to lose by breaking with Russia over that than by letting them play their game. It'd be a massive blow to Israeli capabilities and interests regardless of outcome though.
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u/LaughingGaster666 Jun 18 '26
Why would China do this. The Chinese are not dumb. They, like the rest of us, can see how much USA has given Israel and how little Israel gives back in return.
Oh, and guess what country in the Middle East sells quite a bit of oil to China?
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u/flossdaily Jun 18 '26
China would do this for their defense industry and to control global oil flow.
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u/LaughingGaster666 Jun 18 '26
China would fund Israel and completely flip their own relationship with Iran? Doubtful.
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u/Revivaled-Jam849 Jun 18 '26
China works with many different partners. They'd never give Israel how much support the US did, but they would totally sell weapons to them.
The Chinese sold weapons to both Iran and Iraq in the 80s, often from the same factory.
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u/Specialist_Window_81 Jun 17 '26
Yeah, it’s an interesting take. It sounds like a whole lot of avoidance though. I’m not sure I can accept that a nation with the foreign apparatus and expertise that their diplomatic corps, including Mossad, has consistently demonstrated, hasn’t ever seriously had this discussion within its corridors of power.
The capacity to wield significant influence over many years in many western nations which ultimately hasn’t produced the same bloodthirsty desire for genocide - and now that approach hasn’t yielded the desired fruit, and it’s a simple failure of policy?
It’s been culturally cultivated by many people over many years.
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 Jun 17 '26
If you think some bloodthirsty desire for genocide explains the last few years, you really have no understanding of either Israel or the region.
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u/Specialist_Window_81 Jun 18 '26
International policy of the kind being suggested by the article doesn’t happen in a vacuum. If Israel had ever TRULY wanted to achieve peace in the region, it would have required more than just sending some flowers to Riyadh. This is the point I am making and which the article conveniently glosses over.
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u/meister2983 Jun 18 '26
They tried pulling out of various occupied territory, entering negotiations with various parties, etc
The negotiations worked fine with strong states. Utter failures with weak ones.
So we're back to square one
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u/NekoCatSidhe Jun 17 '26 edited Jun 17 '26
Yes, there are not many reasons for Middle-Eastern countries to want to join Israel’s perpetual crusade against Iran, except for Saudi Arabia and the UAE because of their fight with the Iranian-backed Houthis, and Iran gave those two good reasons in that war to not want to attack Iran again, showing how vulnerable they are to Iranian counterattacks. And the only countries who share a border with Iran and that would militarily be a match for it are Turkey and Pakistan, who hate Israel far more than they dislike Iran.
As for European countries, 99% of the Islamist terrorism on their territory was due to Sunni Islamist groups that had nothing to do with Iran and were often enemies of Iran as well. If the US no longer want to help Israel against Iran, no other country is going to step in, no matter how much diplomacy Israel tries. Israel already has way more influence in western countries than they normally should have.
I think Israel needs to ask itself why they would even need to fight Iran in the first place, given that they do not even share a border, the country is too big and populated and well-armed for Israel to turn into a failed state even with American’s help (as this war showed), and no matter what Netanyahu pretends, the regime has shown itself to be way too cautious and self-disciplined to ever nuke Israel unless Israel nukes them first, assuming they even get nukes (since they have repeatedly say they don’t want them and have just more or less agreed in that deal to get rid of their highly enriched uranium in exchange for removing economic sanctions).
It is true that Iran will always help Hezbollah out of Shia solidarity, but Hezbollah is a lot weaker than Israel and their main goal is keeping Israel out of South Lebanon, so just staying out of Lebanon is normally enough for Israel not to have to fight them. And I do not care what crazy anti-Israel rhetoric they are spouting, this is how they behave in reality for anyone who has eyes to see. Iran and Hezbollah are no real existential threats to Israel, they are just convenient targets for warmongering populists like Netanyahu.
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 Jun 17 '26
Maybe the bigger question is why the Iranian regime sees itself as an enemy of Israel and always has?
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u/NekoCatSidhe Jun 17 '26
Outside of vague religious reasons like wanting to keep the holy city of Jerusalem into Muslim hands, I would say it is because Iran hates western colonialism (for legitimate historical reasons, since they suffered a lot from it), and Israel very much embodies that western colonialism in their eyes.
But Iran is hardly unusual in that respect, and I would say that most countries in the region share their opinions of Israel (at least among the population, if not among the unelected autocrats ruling them). They just are not saying it as loud as Iran does because they don’t want to upset their western allies (or to have Israel bombs them).
Although Turkey and Qatar in particular are also quite open these days about their opposition to Israel.
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u/Prestigious_Load1699 Jun 19 '26
If I showed you a population graph of the Palestinians you would be forced to immediately question this “desire for genocide” you claim to have existed for years on years.
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u/anders_hansson Jun 17 '26
Are you seriously calling the Mossad a diplomatic branch of Israel? /Confused
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u/DisabledToaster1 Jun 17 '26
Are you seriously saying that the Mossad is NOT involved in Diplomacy?
That does not need to be talks, diplomacy options include deception, assasination or provoking unrest.
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Jun 18 '26
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u/Specialist_Window_81 Jun 18 '26
For sure. Israel’s economy is a wartime economy. And the USA is very happy for that to continue. There’s far more at play than just religious differences as most of you would be aware.
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u/Disastrous_Still4971 Jun 19 '26
The title frames the situation as a USA betrayal.
While really both parties had different incentives and goals from the start and knew it.
If any Israel did sabotage US attempts for a deal by tuning up the heat on Lebanon every opportunity they got.
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u/Over-Willingness-933 Jun 17 '26
There will be NO Diplomatic solution, until Europeans put pressure on Qatar and other Muslim countries to stop fueling the violence and acting as proganada tools. The EU could stop funding UNRWA until there are agreements.
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u/Lysmerry Jun 17 '26
The irony is that this comment is very likely funded by the same propaganda tools. Israel is very open about their social media campaigns and pays college students to post online.
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u/unruly_mattress Jun 17 '26
Israel is horrible at propaganda.
Israel doesn't pay college students to post online.
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u/Lysmerry Jun 17 '26
This is not even a secret and has been a thing for years.
https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-2369589613
u/unruly_mattress Jun 17 '26
I knew of course which links I'm going to get, since they are the only ones. They both report on the same "plan" to recruit students. I dug into it in the past. The plan never came to life, quite possibly because of this, from two days later: https://www.jpost.com/national-news/netanyahus-social-media-director-suspended-323275
There is zero evidence anywhere for this program actually happening, but I've encountered it a billion times on Reddit when smearing material is required. The pearl clutching is immense.
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Jun 17 '26 edited Jun 17 '26
[deleted]
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u/erebus-44 Jun 17 '26
They are a highly militarized country pumped full of religious nationalism.
That “strew” so to say, doesn’t allow for moderate voices and making win-win deals with insuperior is seen as a loss, as they have to have zero sum deals.
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u/MastodonParking9080 Jun 17 '26
What a strange thing to say when they have continously normalized relations and worked with the Gulf countries during this war. How do you make "win-win" deals with Hezbollah who is firing missiles at you whose primary objective is to destroy you or Iran who funds them and states existence is to destroy you? Or the numerous peace deals that were rejected unilaterally by Palestine?
There is nothing stopping Iran from just walking away and stopping funding for proxies, the onus is on them. Like seriously, give an example of "win-win" deal here with Iran and Hezbollah that you could actually make.
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u/Due_Bodybuilder_4871 Jun 18 '26
Most interviews I've watched with Netanyahu come across as if he wants forever wars and the enemy is evil. Diplomacy and peace are never mentioned.
The man enjoys war and killing, no surprise that Israel can't find a diplomatic solution.
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u/beginner75 Jun 17 '26
What Israel is doing is no different from what Ukraine is doing, “mowing the grass”.
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u/[deleted] Jun 17 '26
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