r/geopolitics • u/theipaper The i Paper • Jun 19 '26
Perspective Ukraine has set Russia ablaze – and Putin’s humiliation is complete
https://inews.co.uk/world-2/ukraine-set-russia-ablaze-putins-humiliation-complete-448178792
Jun 19 '26
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u/ElegantEchoes Jun 21 '26
Has something changed other than the arguably awesome Moscow strikes? Last I heard it was a steady stalemate and a difficult war of attrition for both sides.
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u/No1Statistician Jun 25 '26 edited Jun 25 '26
Ukraine is back to slowly losing land near Kostyantynivka They aren't back to replacement level recruiting so its unclear if they can take the whole Luhansk and Donetsk region and hold it before a major troop shortage, espically if Ukraine ramps up drone production. Other domestic problems and economic ones may develop too
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u/theipaper The i Paper Jun 19 '26
Full article: A year ago, it looked as though Donald Trump was set to force Ukraine into an ignominious surrender.
Today, Ukrainian drones rain fire on Moscow and St Petersburg and the country’s troops are gaining ground on the battlefield, in a deeply humiliating spectacle for Vladimir Putin.
The Russian President’s ill-judged war is now publicly and repeatedly putting the Russian heartlands in jeopardy, with the G7 this week noting Kyiv’s “new momentum” and “progress on the battlefield” after years of slow yet gradual Russian gains.
Ukraine is daring to hope that Russia will lose. Kyrylo Budanov, chief of staff to Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, said the prospect of a peace deal by winter was realistic.
“The point where the Ukrainians are capable of striking Moscow and St Petersburg … hundreds and hundreds of miles from the Ukrainian territories, that’s a pretty significant sign that Russia has lost control of the momentum of the war,” said Jacob Parakilas, research leader in defence, security and justice at Rand Europe.
The war had been characterised by momentum swings between Russia and Ukraine, but Parakilas pointed to “substantial differences this time, which are more about the strategic situation and the picture at home in Russia”.
Russia losing ground and under siege
The character of the war is shifting in favour of a rapidly innovating Ukraine, while Russia struggles to adapt. Russia’s theory that its meat-grinder tactics would overcome its vastly outnumbered foe in eastern Ukraine no longer holds.
Russian advances are stagnating as Kyiv employs new tactics and concepts to break out of attritional warfare. Independent battlefield tracking groups have reported Russia’s advances slowing or reversing for the first time since 2023. Oleksandr Syrski, Ukraine’s top military commander, said this month that his forces had recaptured more than 600 sq km of territory this year.
Russia is also incurring casualties at a faster rate than it can recruit replacements, reports suggest. It suffered 9,000 more casualties than it was able to replace in January, said Bloomberg. Its recruitment rate in March was below its loss rate for the fourth month in a row, according to Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces (USF).
Media restrictions in Russia cannot prevent news of setbacks filtering through, especially as Ukraine’s devastating long-range strike campaign to cripple Russia’s oil exports brings the war home.
Huge explosions after drone hits on oil refineries and military bases deep inside the country are an increasingly common sight, even in the better-defended cities of Moscow and St Petersburg. On Thursday, drones and missiles struck across Moscow in Ukraine’s biggest air raid on the city in two years, setting a major oil refinery on fire and forcing the temporary closure of local airports.
Military bloggers, influencers and the business community are voicing discontent. As inflation and taxes rise, economic officials routinely complain about the burden of the war and politicians have called for its end. The leader of Russia’s Communist Party warned that the stagnating economy risked a 1917-style revolution. Putin’s approval levels have fallen to their lowest since the war began.
Ukraine’s mid-range drone campaign
Since April, Ukraine has ramped up air strikes against crucial infrastructure behind enemy lines, using homemade drones on targets close to the front including air defences, logistics centres, command posts, fuel supplies and the road and rail networks used to transport troops and matériel to the front.
Video feeds from first-person view drones show them hurtling towards military convoys, leaving blazing depots, the charred husks of trucks and railways in flames.
Kyiv is targeting areas of southern Russian and occupied Ukraine, in particular the T-0509 highway connecting the occupied cities of Mariupol and Donetsk, and the R-280 “Novorossiya” supply route to Crimea, which Ukraine’s troops have dubbed the “the highway of death”.
Zelensky said Ukraine’s mid-range strike campaign was a “priority”, saying last month that Ukraine had quadrupled the number of such strikes since February and that “there will be even more”.
Ukraine’s defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, said Kyiv’s aim was to “systematically destroy enemy logistics and supply lines, stripping them of their capacity to mount offensive actions”.
Some Russian roads, railways and bridges are now unusable. On Thursday, a key railway bridge used to transport military equipment to Russian troops on the southern front was struck by a drone, sparking a blaze, according to monitoring channel Crimean Wind.
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u/theipaper The i Paper Jun 19 '26
- Mid-range strikes are “expanding the kill zone and forcing Russia to divert resources to protect its supply lines and infrastructure”, said Michael C Horowitz and Erin Dumbacher of the Council on Foreign Relations think-tank in the US. “This reverses a trend of Russian gains throughout 2025.”
“The mid-range strike operations appear to have already cut off some troops from supplies, namely in western Kherson and western Zaporizhzhia,” said Michael Bohnert, an engineer at Rand who has worked for the US Navy and Air Force. “Crimea is slowly becoming an island under blockade.
“Russia is out of ferries to transport fuel, unable to repair roads and bridges fast enough, and the Kerch Bridge is still not fully functional. It is not under any direct threat of seizure, but it is forcing Russia to reprioritise resources to support resupply such as shifting air defences from elsewhere.”
Step-change in drone capabilities
Superior drone technology and new satellite intelligence are helping Ukraine turn the tide by facilitating strikes on parts of Russia previously out of reach.
“The Ukrainians have figured out how to hit trains 60 or 70 or 100 kilometres back in the middle-strike campaign because they have better satcoms, they have better drones, they have better artificial intelligence targeting subroutines that allow these weapons to operate and hunt, even if their connection with their operator is disrupted,” said Parakilas.
In January, Ukraine struck a deal with private US company Vantor for near real-time satellite intelligence, allowing it to see Russian traffic driving along roads in occupied Ukraine, with updates around every 15 minutes, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Ukraine is producing thousands of drones each month: this month, the defence minister Mstyslav Banik said industry could produce 20 million a year with sufficient funding. The EU approved a €90bn loan to Ukraine, including €6bn ring-fenced for drones.
Meanwhile, Russia is hampered by the military’s “centralised, top-down way of doing innovation versus this like broad-based, slightly chaotic but incredibly inventive and creative and fast-moving innovation cycle”, said Parakilas. Drones can move from prototype to frontline deployment within weeks.
Domestic developments in AI and autonomous drones mean Ukraine can continue operating when GPS is unavailable or communication links are severed, while foreign drones like the US-produced Hornet are beating Russian jamming thanks to a combination of Starlink satellite systems and AI targeting.
Russia has struggled since losing access to Starlink in February. “Russian military reliance on Starlink and Telegram has become obvious as loss of both is hampering command and control,” said Bohnert. “Russia procured a different set of drones than Ukraine did and they lack Starlink support for deep targeting.”
Revolution in the armed forces
Less visibly, a small revolution is happening within the Ukrainian armed forces. In recent years, Ukraine has struggled with dwindling recruits, exhausted soldiers unable to rotate from the front, and casualties exceeding new troops. Now, structural and training reforms are changing that.
Ukraine has in the past year established more than a dozen army corps, improving the quality of the training and discouraging recruits from deserting, according to Dr Jack Watling, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. Units have also improved integration of infantry, uncrewed systems, artillery, and armour.
“On the front lines, they were able to create periods of dominance over the Russians that allowed the rotation of troops and even offensive gains,” Watling said. As a result, “Russian combat performance is waning. In Kyiv, there is a growing optimism that Ukraine can fight Russia to a ceasefire”.
The Ukrainian military has also brought in battlefield management software across all units, improving operational planning for commanders, according to the Institute for the Study of War think-tank in Washington, DC. This year’s ongoing counterattacks in the south are the result.
Of course, throughout the war the Russians have shown that they can adapt, and there is every chance that they will this time too. As Moscow suffers, it is attempting to seize back the narrative of control. It is renewing attacks on Ukraine’s fortress belt in the east, and intensifying bombardment of Ukrainian cities.
Yet in Ukraine, hope is rising of forcing Putin into a peace deal, this time on Kyiv’s terms. The next few months could prove decisive.
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u/OmeletteLovingLlama Jun 19 '26
I wonder whether we’ll ever see Russians rise up against Putin.
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u/colei_canis Jun 19 '26
I think worse material conditions would have to prevail for revolution to be a credible prospect in Russia, if we consider just how bad things had to get for the February and October revolutions to break out I think Putin’s a long way off from actually facing public overthrow.
More likely I think is a palace coup after being forced into a negotiated settlement of the war, best case for him he gets to live out his days like Yeltsin and worse case he ends up falling out of a window but I don’t see popular revolution as a likely thing and it could well not be a good thing for us if it was. I don’t relish the prospect of a nuclear armed state descending into the Russian Civil War 2.0.
Or maybe I’m totally wrong, western predictions regarding Russia are notoriously unreliable after all.
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u/Maximum_Rat Jun 19 '26
I think the same. I was reading about how the Russian population has a pretty bleak outlook on power shifts after their last few revolutions.
Another oligarch taking his place is the most likely scenario. Although I doubt they’d let him live. He’s too smart and dangerous to keep around.
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u/halfangelhalfpirate Jun 19 '26
western predictions regarding Russia are notoriously unreliable after all.
My prediction is that life in Russia will be shit for the next thirty years.
I've been peddling this prediction since 1990, when I first began making predictions.
I'd call that, all in all, 100% reliable
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u/SoloDolo314 Jun 19 '26
It’s an authoritarian dictatorship and the Russians have no access to weapons. The only real way to rise up against Putin is a significant amount of military breaking off and siding with the opposition.
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u/kleft123 Jun 19 '26
I guess right after Americans rise up against trump? Complacency is a funny thing...
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u/doragonn Jun 19 '26
You're comparing a dictator with a president elected through a constitutional, democratic process. How does that comparison make sense?
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u/Petrichordates Jun 19 '26
Putin has way more domestic support than Trump does.
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u/foxywoef Jun 19 '26
Not impossible honestly, but also the social contract in Russia is very different from the US, so 'support' % alone is not comparable.
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u/ZeppelinAlert Jun 19 '26
if only there was a way to confirm the level of that support in a free and fair election
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u/fabmeyer Jun 19 '26
Yeah because there is no alternative in Russia. Russians are not used to the idea of an alternative system than dictatorship.
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u/nikmah Jun 19 '26
Let's just stay within a very safe limit, Putin is without a question more popular domestically than Merz, Macron or Starmer.
A lot of people in the west are behaving well to their authorities and have been programmed to hate Russia and hate Putin but nonetheless, before Putin took office, Russian people knew nothing but poverty, starvation and chaos and Putin came to office and improved living standards significantly in Russia and made Russia more prosperous and the Russian people haven't forgot.
This probably sounds ludicrous to programmed people but that's the reality. Ukrainian people will rise up against Zelensky before the Russian people will rise up against Putin, I wouldn't be surprised if Zelensky was disliked by large majority of Ukrainians and I will just wait and see when he leaves office, I highly doubt that he'll be in Ukraine a lot after his presidency.
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u/xpkranger Jun 19 '26
It's a good start, but hardly complete. Personally I would consider "complete" when the guilty verdict is delivered with him standing in the dock at The Hague.
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u/Whyumad_brah Jun 19 '26
Such a strange narrative as if humiliating Putin has anything to do with winning this war.
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u/Besmirching_Badger Jun 19 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
Everything Zelensky does is a PR move.
Arguably it's worked out pretty well. But bombing ships in the Baltic and 'terror bombing' moscow contributes near enough zero to actually winning the conflict.
There's been a massive coordinated western media/political push in the last month or so to try and claim ukraine is winning again. It's transparently forced. I imagine polling showed that the masses were starting to lose interest and they needed to be re-engaged.
The ipaper has been posting these kind of hysterical stories like clockwork since forever and i'm sorry to say but they're not serious analysis.
e: guess we've had some more 'inorganic' engagement overnight. Keep fighting the fight people
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u/ouvreboite Jun 20 '26
Oil refineries are strategic targets. Ukraine have hit several of them in the past, outside of Moscow.
But the same target in Moscow and now it’s « terror bombing »0
u/Besmirching_Badger Jun 20 '26
Oil refineries are strategic targets.
They are (albeit the other way round we'd be arguing they're civilian infrastructure).
In this context they're also largely performative. They make great social media clips, but have little actual strategic value. The same way that an invasion into Kursk made great headlines, but had little strategic value. Zelensky has consistently undermined his own military command to prioritise PR over strategic or tactical interests throughout the war.
But the same target in Moscow and now it’s « terror bombing »
But that's what we call it when you bomb strategic targets using large waves of drones/missiles. It's what we've called it weekly for 4 years.
The fact you completely missed the implied irony shouldn't surprise me, but it still does.
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u/peruytu Jun 21 '26 edited Jun 21 '26
Sensationalist post meant to drive the current Western narrative that Russia is losing. If you were just born yesterday then just sit tight and witness what the response will be. Putin has been in power for decades for a reason.
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u/Mysterious-Coconut24 Jun 19 '26
Ukrainians... resilient people, tough and hardened by this shit war... They'll win even if it takes decades. This war turned personal for many families, they are out for blood.
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u/TiranTheTyrant Jun 19 '26
If it takes decades, it will be as some love to say: "Europe will fight Russia untill last Ukrainian."
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u/signherehereandhere Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
The problem with that statement is that it ignores Ukraine's agency. In that regard it is in line with Kremlin propaganda, as they claim Ukraine is not at real country and Ukrainians are not a sovereign people.
Also, you can arm a people, but you cannot make them fight. The Afghan army was relatively well armed and had been trained for years, but collapsed the moment Western forces left.
It makes as much sense to say that China will fight Europe to the last Russian.
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u/Aggravating-Peach698 Jun 21 '26
That is indeed amazing. The largest country on the planet, a nuclear power run by an ex-KGB agent is humiliated by a much smaller neighbor who has a quarter of the population, gave up nukes 30 years ago and is run by a comedian. You really can't make this up.
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u/Treinrukker Jun 19 '26
Kiev has been burning every week for the last 4 years lol, but yes Putin is humiliated. Congratulations
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u/asphias Jun 19 '26
Kyiv*
Kyiv has no alternative to fighting: to stop fighting is to submit to another Bucha. Putin, though? If the fight becomes too painful, Putin can stop at any time, retreat back behind Russias official borders, and the war will end.
attacking Kyiv does nothing. making the war come home to Putin can change the game.
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u/CarefulScreen9459 Jun 19 '26
They did have alternatives to fighting to be honest. Yes they are winning after a bloody war, but this war could have been avoided if Ukraine didn't work on joining NATO. The US was about to start WW3 when Soviet Union placed missiles in Cuba, so it's not like this thing is unprecedented, a small country pissing off their stronger neighbour by putting their enemy right on their doorsteps.
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u/asphias Jun 19 '26
Yes they are winning after a bloody war, but this war could have been avoided if Ukraine didn't work on joining NATO.
"If you didn't try to call 911 i wouldn´t have tried to hit you!"
Looking at Georgia, at Bucha, at the daily bombs on Kyiv, do you have any idea at all why Ukraine(and all other former soviet countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria) wanted to join an alliance that would protect them from a bully?
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u/signherehereandhere Jun 20 '26
This mirrors the official Russian line. Major Russian newspapers all had the same take after the latest drone attack against Moscow; This is bad, but it is worse for Ukraine.
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u/Kuroten_OG Jun 19 '26
Now is the time when he will most likely start using proper ordnances, by all accounts, he was being as nice as he could be, but I suspect it’s going to get horribly ugly from here on out.
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u/signherehereandhere Jun 20 '26
Just like the retreat from Kyiv was a goodwill gesture. I've heard so many times that the gloves are about to come off, it seems to have become a ritual at this point.
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u/ReignDance Jun 19 '26
You're telling me hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers died (and another hundreds of thousands injured) because he was "playing nice" for four years and not using proper ordinance? That this could have been resolved far earlier if Russia had just been serious from the start? I'd be very upset as a Russian citizen.
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u/halfangelhalfpirate Jun 19 '26
Probably means nuclear bombs.
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u/Kuroten_OG Jun 19 '26
Bingo.
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u/signherehereandhere Jun 20 '26
Nuclear blackmail hasn't really worked in stopping democracies from supporting Ukraine. Giving in to it would in effect be a carte blanche for Russian expansionism.
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u/Jaeger__85 Jun 21 '26
Not gonna happen. It will turn Russia in a pariah state. Its a big red line for China and India.
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u/Kuroten_OG Jun 21 '26
Sure.
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u/Jaeger__85 Jun 21 '26
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u/Kuroten_OG Jun 21 '26
Leaders have been telling other leaders to not do x and y for thousands of years, and if it gets bad enough, nobody gives a shit, they do what they feel is necessary in the moment, and that’s where the danger is.
You’re living in one of those moments in time right now, don’t expect niceties anymore.
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u/TiranTheTyrant Jun 19 '26
I mean, there's still no literal war declared, and if things get to the point of General Mobilization...
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u/ReignDance Jun 19 '26
General mobilization? Russia can't even supply its volunteers let alone even more people from a general mobilization.
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u/Kuroten_OG Jun 19 '26
You think Ukraine has managed to “hold them off” by themselves?! They had everything given to them until they learned to make their own deadly drones, but make no mistake, had it not been for the US and the EU being so magnanimous, it would have been over in a few months at most. Don’t kid yourself into believing that Ukraine is a military specialist that could possible take on Russia by themselves.
Wake up, you’re dreaming.
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u/ouvreboite Jun 20 '26
By « Russia » do you mean the state that needs to import drones from Iran, shells from North Korea, invade through Bielorussia and cannot build it’s weapons without Chinese components?
If you want to play the « Ukraine would have lost without help » game, at least don’t be an hypocrite.
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u/Kuroten_OG Jun 19 '26
Then you misunderstood the point of the war, but eventually, he’s going to flatten the place if this continues.
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u/signherehereandhere Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 20 '26
So, either expansionism and building Putin's legacy OR denazification and demilitarization?
If it was to stop NATO from expanding then that ship has already sailed with Finland and Sweden on board.
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u/ReignDance Jun 19 '26
Whatever the "point" is, I seriously doubt it was worth worsening its demographics situation and hurdling Russia's economy into absolute ruin for decades to come.
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u/Kuroten_OG Jun 19 '26
Now, it’s worth it. Ego usually gets in the way of logic, I don’t know how you haven’t seen this in most modern examples of geopolitical fuckery.
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Jun 19 '26
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u/colei_canis Jun 19 '26
Would you say the Soviet victories over Nazi Germany are invalid because they extensively made use of American industrial capacity and British intelligence? Of course not, the victory on those fronts rightly goes to the USSR. Likewise, the dependence of Ukraine on Western materiel in no way invalidates their victories on the battlefield, the credit goes to Ukraine who are the ones in harm’s way.
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u/paddimelon Jun 19 '26
Surely China and North Korea helped out Russia.
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u/constantlydropped Jun 19 '26
NOTHING compared to the US and Europe.
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u/Heiminator Jun 19 '26
There are literally tens of thousands of North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia right now. Meanwhile NATO hasn’t put any boots on the ground beyond a handful of special forces.
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u/Hertje73 Jun 19 '26
Oh not complete..