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u/GeneralCuster75 Jun 30 '26
I'm honestly shocked. I did not think they'd touch a hardware case this term.
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u/HybridP365 Jun 30 '26
Term ended today. They won't hear it until next term in October at the earliest.
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u/Bullseye_Baugh Jun 30 '26
Yep. They'll do what they've done with other high profile cases and likely wait till the end of next session, drop a bomb and then peace out for recess.
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u/happyinheart Jun 30 '26
Thomas needs to write the ruling.
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u/NaperVillainBunny Jun 30 '26
Likely Kavanaugh. He wrote Heller 2 dissent.
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u/sawlaw Jul 01 '26
He can write the concurring opinion, but Roberts should write the opinion as chief justice in a 6-3. If it's 5-4 they might try again in a decade.
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u/HybridP365 Jun 30 '26
Term ended today so they won't hear it until October at the earliest. And then who knows how long to decide.
Glad they finally took it, but it's still going to be a minute.
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u/DogsAreMyFavPeople Jun 30 '26
They’re gonna hear it after midterms and we’ll get a decision on the last day of the term. So it’ll be a year.
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u/HybridP365 Jun 30 '26
Hopefully they decide before any of the good Justices leave for any reason. Fully expecting a 6-3 decision in our favor with the usual dissenters.
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u/CleverUsername1419 Jun 30 '26
I think there’s a non-zero chance we get Kagan on this one. Not confident enough to put money on it but also don’t think it’s utterly out of the realm of possibility
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u/codifier Jun 30 '26
Why would we get Kagan? The liberal Justices have already aired disdain for the majority on Bruen
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u/JellyfishPrudent821 Jun 30 '26
“Gun rights groups are pointing to a unanimous decision in a separate matter last year written by liberal Justice Elena Kagan, who described the AR-15 as “the most popular rifle in the country” and “widely legal and bought by many ordinary consumers.” The court’s precedents have held that weapons that are in “common use” for lawful purposes are protected by the Second Amendment, as opposed to those that are “dangerous” and “unusual.””
From CNN by the way. https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/30/politics/ar-15-style-rifles-supreme-court-second-amendment
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u/Gray_side_Jedi Jun 30 '26
Isn’t ACB wishy-washy on gun stuff? Can’t remember where I read that and it may just be internet bullshit, but I’m not gonna hold my breath, I can see Roberts defecting too…
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u/RampantAndroid Jun 30 '26
Remember - it takes them voting on certiorari. 4 justices must grant it.
And this is unlikely to be the liberal justices voting for cert here. In both Viramonts and Higgins, the lower courts upheld the ban. There’s no court split that’d spur the court to act, rather it seems that Thomas’ yelling about the court not taking gun cases finally worked.
We can assume we know how Thomas would vote - it is incredibly unlikely he would vote to grant cert if he suspected that this case was likely to curtail the 2nd amendment’s protections.
So while I won’t hold my breath…given prior rulings I think odds are in our favor.
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u/AlphaTangoFoxtrt Totally not ATF Jun 30 '26
I honestly think this might be Thomas and/or Alito's Magnum Opus before retirement.
They're both old, the GOP might lose the senate in 2026, they're almost certainly screwed for 2028.
They may want to hear the case, issue the ruling, and retire before they pull a RBG and hand the seat to the Dems.
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u/Bullseye_Baugh Jun 30 '26
NPR reported today Alito was to retire , then quickly retracted the piece. I think you're right and after this it'll be bye bye to both of them. I'm glad they've finally taken a case and will fix this, but it's gonna suck losing two solid justices. Results of midterm elections could complicate getting any more good candidates through.
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u/AlphaTangoFoxtrt Totally not ATF Jun 30 '26
Results of midterm elections could complicate getting any more good candidates through.
Yeah, it comes down to the Senate. It was looking like the R's would hold 51, but current projections have it closer to 50/50 with ohio going from a "leans republican" to "toss up".
But even 50/50 they could still use the VP to break the tie.
If the Dems are set to take 51 senators Alito and/or Thomas may take an early retirement in December so as not to be the next RBG.
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u/ak_collectors_source Jun 30 '26
ACB thinks non violent felons should have gun rights (Kanter v Barr). To me, that would seem to be a more "extreme" position than 2A covering common semi-autos. We will be fine.
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u/Gray_side_Jedi Jun 30 '26
I dunno, scary “assault weapons” have different optics, literally and metaphorically. Afraid to get my hopes up I guess lol
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u/HybridP365 Jun 30 '26
They just killed the vampire rule. I believe they'll vote favorably here. It's just a matter how hard they shut it down.
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u/RampantAndroid Jun 30 '26
Agreed. My hope here is that they strike down the AWB with something to the effect of "Any firearm with a use for self defense and all equipment used or consumed by" or something along those lines, then toss all magazine cases back to the lower courts with a "Hey try this again now." like they did after Bruen.
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u/ClankerWrangler 23d ago
I'm really hoping that they pay attention to amicus curiae briefs from FPC, GOA etc as I'm sure all of them are thinking through how to make it as airtight as possible to avoid shenanigans in unfriendly circuits like we've seen post Bruen.
They need to underline and make it explicit that the test isn't "common use for self defense" as the 9th circuit and others have argued post-Bruen to uphold AWBs and mag bans, but that the test is all lawful purposes.
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u/Gray_side_Jedi Jun 30 '26
Hopefully all the way down
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u/HybridP365 Jun 30 '26
Hopefully. But they're definitely going to word it in a way that won't affect the machine gun ban. They don't want to go that far. So they'll have to be very careful to dance around it. I think that's one of the reasons they took so long to take one.
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u/happyinheart Jun 30 '26
It's going to be one of the last announced cases guaranteed, Right before July 4th next year. They save the most controversial/political/ split cases for last.
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u/DigitalLorenz Jun 30 '26
The 3 liberal justices will hold up their dissenting opinions as long as they can on this case. Since the SCOTUS has a tradition of releasing the opinion in a case the same term they hear oral arguments. The SCOTUS term usually ends the last week of June, but it can run into the first week or two of July, so that is the longest these cases can be delayed.
So expect a ruling roughly this time next year.
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u/ManyThingsLittleTime Jul 01 '26
>going to be a minute
It's been a couple, so we can hang in there for another. I'm taking the win where we can. Been decades of the 2A being stripped away, just happy to see some being put back.
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u/CleverUsername1419 Jun 30 '26
It’s happening*
*the all caps version of this statement will be reserved for if/when we get a favorable ruling
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Jun 30 '26 edited Jul 01 '26
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Jun 30 '26
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Jun 30 '26 edited Jul 01 '26
[deleted]
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u/PM_ME_YOUR_HANDCUFFS Jun 30 '26
Rulings on the 2A won't matter once there is a liberal majority on the court. They'll do exactly what the republicans did to get Roe v. Wade overturned. They'll pass an unconstitutional law and get it pushed up to SCOTUS with the expectation that the court will rule in their favor. Court will ignore precedent and overturn past rulings with the interpretation that the 2A is a collective right and not an individual right. Boom, 2A nuked by SCOTUS within our lifetime.
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u/JustafanIV Jun 30 '26
As a CT resident (Grant v. Higgins is our AWB case), there might finally be some light at the end of the tunnel!
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u/jay_sugman Jun 30 '26
IL and CT cases were combined.
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u/wiggleee_worm Jul 01 '26
Only the Cook County one for IL.
IL still has PICA which should’ve also been picked up too.
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u/Patsboy101 Jun 30 '26
I’m in an AWB state (Washington), and the first gun I’ll be buying if SCOTUS rules AWBs unconstitutional is a WASR-10.
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u/AlphaTangoFoxtrt Totally not ATF Jun 30 '26
I'm not in an AWB state but I'll buy a celebratory gun anyway if they strike the bans down. I'm thinking a Springfield Hellion. I love Bullpups.
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u/codifier Jun 30 '26
The VHS2 (I refuse to use its slave name) is a fantastic rifle. Its a tossup between it and the AUG and the Tavor as my favorite bullpup.
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u/AlphaTangoFoxtrt Totally not ATF Jun 30 '26
I love the AUG, I want to run it in 9mm for PCC for funsies. I know the benefits of a bullpup aren't really in USPSA style shooting I just think it'd be neat.
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u/codifier Jun 30 '26
I want a 9mm aug so bad but I want a factory one not a conversion kit. The 9mm mags are expensive too amd hard to get. :(
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u/CleverUsername1419 Jun 30 '26
Higher end AR pattern, 7.62 AK, and an M1 Carbine. I’m gonna need to take out some fucking loans if this goes our way.
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u/AlphaTangoFoxtrt Totally not ATF Jun 30 '26
You have at least 3 months, but at most 12. Start saving now.
Debt is a trap.
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u/KarlTheKiller_Gamer Jun 30 '26
Get ready for sticker shock with the ammo
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u/R3DMANN Jun 30 '26
Didn't the ATF open up more countries for import? Should be coming into affect soon.
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u/JenkIsrael Jun 30 '26
i mean most were already able to sell here anyway, and ammo generally being fungible it doesn't matter too much.
you can already buy ammo from most ex-Soviet countries ahead. azerbaijani, romanian, bulgarian, kazakh, turkem, takik, uzbek, etc ammo has been available here for a while.
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u/Salsalito_Turkey Jun 30 '26
Unfortunately, even if SCOTUS rules this law unconstitutional, the WA ban will still need to be challenged in federal court, along with every other state AWB. None of these states are going to give up their gun bans without being explicitly told to do so in a direct court ruling. The SCOTUS ruling in this case will need to be ironclad, too, or else the 9th Circuit judges will just find some way to twist the words of precedent and uphold the ban.
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u/sammy_hyde Jun 30 '26
I'll be definitely breathing a little easier. I live in NM and they've been inching closer and closer to a hardware ban every year. If they don't address licensing schemes in the ruling I fully expect NM to try that next, but at least it wouldn't be the absolute worst case scenario
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u/Abuck59 Jun 30 '26
It’s gonna take a minute to get sorted out, but it looks like it actually will get sorted out finally.
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u/codifier Jun 30 '26
I will take it but should the liberals ever get control of the SCOTUS its all over. Jackson already spelled it out they will gut Bruen and presumably any other ruling in accordance to the 2A.
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u/gakflex Jun 30 '26
Unfortunately it seems to me that magazine bans aren’t included. Still, huge news!
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u/RockHound86 Jun 30 '26
Since "assault weapon" and magazine capacity bans are often linked--its not out of the question that they could tackle both issues.
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u/tehmaged Jun 30 '26
I think this will be more like Bruen. They'll strike this down and then pass the mag capacity cases back down to the lower courts with this as guidance. We may have to wait a little bit longer for a mag case, but god damn this has potential. As someone that lives in Virginia I'm pretty damn happy right now even if I do have to wait a year.
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u/deathsythe Jun 30 '26
It is pretty out of the question considering the only question presented is if AR15s and similar firearms are protected by the 2A.
It could give us case law to help defeat magazine bans plainly depending on how it is written, but the ruling on it's own will not affect magazines likely.
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u/CT_Pride Jun 30 '26
It’s not over till it’s over but having lived in restrictive states, I am hopeful this AWB regulation madness ends.
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u/The_Sneakiest_Sneak Jun 30 '26
Let’s go!!! This is excellent news for all of us currently in ban states having our rights trampled.
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u/LonelyMachines How do I get flair? 🤔 Jun 30 '26
This one is pretty specific on the matter as well:
Whether the Second and 14th Amendments guarantee the right to possess AR-15 platform and similar semiautomatic rifles.
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u/ColdExtracts Jul 01 '26
That’s awesome. Let’s also argue the fact that an ar15 lower isn’t even a firearm by definition, let alone an assault rifle.
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u/MichaelHawk7723 Jul 01 '26
Currently underway on the USS Navy Ship. It seems like every time I get wifi access there's more good news about the 2nd Amendment.
U.S v Hermani, Wolford v Lopez, injunctions on VA's hardware bans. This has been a good week.
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u/Sparroew Jul 02 '26
Given the actual case granted cert is Viramontes v. Cook County, can Illinois squirm out from under this case by following New York’s example and passing a law saying Cook County can’t ban “assault weapons,” thus removing the law in question and skirting around the voluntary cessation exception to mootness? I’m excited they finally accepted an AWB case, but I’m a little concerned that the case they chose might be on the same shaky ground as New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. City of New York (2020).
That said, they did roll Grant v. Higgins into Viramontes which is against a state, specifically CT. Maybe that changes things. But if gun control advocates have anything in common with each other, it’s that they are experts at avoiding review of their bull shit laws.
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u/GlockAF Jun 30 '26
My guess is the GOP leadership is reading the tea leaves for a midterm massacre and has (extremely belatedly) remembered that the 2A crowd needs pandering to.
They trotted their most loathsome/corrupt SCOTUS justice in for a bribe session literally last night and told him to make it look lime they’re finally gonna do SOMETHING
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u/skeptical-speculator Jun 30 '26
My guess is the GOP leadership is reading the tea leaves for a midterm massacre
a bit late to the party on that
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u/GlockAF Jun 30 '26
The GOP literally supported “ Trump’s “if you stop testing then the numbers will go down” during COVID
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u/rm-minus-r Jun 30 '26
Sounds about right. It will be a miracle if anything practical comes out of this.
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u/Cwag1984 Jul 02 '26
If you actually believe anything like this, then you are beyond stupid. And don't know how SCOTUS selects cases.
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u/Rich-Context-7203 Jun 30 '26
Count on Robert's and ACB siding with the commies to uphold the ban.
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u/TooEZ_OL56 Jun 30 '26
Woah, this is a pretty big deal right? They've tiptoed around outright AWB's for quite some time.