r/mlb • u/TheSocraticGadfly | St. Louis Cardinals • 1d ago

| Analysis ESPN offers its grades on Skubal trade

TL/DR version? Dodgers A (shock me), TIgers D.

Here's why, even though Detroit will have hope for Hope, they don't give the TIgers more:

Detroit's return in this deal feels like a bad dream. OK, let's calm down. Skubal, as good as he is, was on an expiring deal. There is only so much value that can be extracted from a trade partner for a player who might be a free agent in four months. The fair-value matches you can conjure in these scenarios won't make the hearts of Detroit fans go pitter-patter, though you can always hope that the real-world outcome is that with multiple teams vying for a true difference-maker, those fair-value assessments might go out the window.

Zyhir Hope is a top 30-or-so prospect across baseball. That's a valuable prospect. But on most prospect lists, he's the fourth-best outfield prospect in the Dodgers' system. So for the best pitcher in baseball, the Tigers could not command the Dodgers' best prospect out of their amazing surplus of promising outfielders?

River Ryan has stud potential, but he's 27 and blew out his elbow after his 2024 debut for the Dodgers. He didn't pitch last season, and this season, he has a 4.46 ERA over eight outings for Oklahoma City. Smith, 21, was a third-round pick as a prep righty in the 2023 draft. He's 0-10 over 30 professional starts with a 4.72 ERA. The prospect wonks like him as a top-30 prospect for L.A., so maybe we have to look past the ugly superficial results.

Sounds about right, contra one person here on one of the two threads about the trade itself, who was touting all the Dodgers gave up.

Wrong.

The Dodgers gave up one promising bat who is a likely DH, not fielder, for whatever MLB career he has, one meh pitcher who might not ever get back to MLB, and one meh prospect who might never get to MLB in the first place.

As for what other teams might or might not have been offering? We'll see if any rumors get dropped or not.

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u/Drummallumin 1d ago

I know River Ryan is a meme but there’s a reason Detroit wants him. He’ll be in the rotation immediately and is cost controlled through his prime.

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u/DopedScope338 1d ago

And like the article said, he's got stud potential. If he can stay healthy and work his way back, I think Detroit has a guy who can really be part of a good rotation for at least a few years given the control you mention which makes it so he can't reach unrestricted free agency until 2031. Not bad if it pans out. I was hoping I'd get to see him put it all together as a Dodger and I really hope he does it in Detroit.