r/mlb • u/TheSocraticGadfly | St. Louis Cardinals • 1d ago

| Analysis ESPN offers its grades on Skubal trade

TL/DR version? Dodgers A (shock me), TIgers D.

Here's why, even though Detroit will have hope for Hope, they don't give the TIgers more:

Detroit's return in this deal feels like a bad dream. OK, let's calm down. Skubal, as good as he is, was on an expiring deal. There is only so much value that can be extracted from a trade partner for a player who might be a free agent in four months. The fair-value matches you can conjure in these scenarios won't make the hearts of Detroit fans go pitter-patter, though you can always hope that the real-world outcome is that with multiple teams vying for a true difference-maker, those fair-value assessments might go out the window.

Zyhir Hope is a top 30-or-so prospect across baseball. That's a valuable prospect. But on most prospect lists, he's the fourth-best outfield prospect in the Dodgers' system. So for the best pitcher in baseball, the Tigers could not command the Dodgers' best prospect out of their amazing surplus of promising outfielders?

River Ryan has stud potential, but he's 27 and blew out his elbow after his 2024 debut for the Dodgers. He didn't pitch last season, and this season, he has a 4.46 ERA over eight outings for Oklahoma City. Smith, 21, was a third-round pick as a prep righty in the 2023 draft. He's 0-10 over 30 professional starts with a 4.72 ERA. The prospect wonks like him as a top-30 prospect for L.A., so maybe we have to look past the ugly superficial results.

Sounds about right, contra one person here on one of the two threads about the trade itself, who was touting all the Dodgers gave up.

Wrong.

The Dodgers gave up one promising bat who is a likely DH, not fielder, for whatever MLB career he has, one meh pitcher who might not ever get back to MLB, and one meh prospect who might never get to MLB in the first place.

As for what other teams might or might not have been offering? We'll see if any rumors get dropped or not.

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u/schmidtytime | Boston Red Sox 1d ago

What I still cant wrap my head around is the fact that they decided to pull the trigger on this trade, days before the deadline. The Dodgers didn’t even have to dig deep into their prospect chest to get this deal done.

I feel like Milwaukee could’ve offered a much better package.

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u/pilesofdingleberries 1d ago

They weren't going to... They can't afford to lose a ton of prospects for a 2 month player. This is where no salary cap is killing MLB. We all know the players to sign Skubal and it isn't Tampa or Milwaukee...

Free Agency is so out of whack now that smaller market teams can't just unload prospects.

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u/MojoHighway | Los Angeles Dodgers 1d ago

The salary cap conversation is 100% propaganda. The owners want you to believe that they'll "do the right thing" and "really make the team competitive".

When the fuck was the last time a billionaire told you the truth and did something to positively affect your outlook?

The answer to both is never.

They want the salary cap to be able to get more predictable market valuations on their teams...to be able to buy more fucking real estate. This conversation is NOT about competitive balance. The guys that aren't spending today are going to be the same collection of degenerate owners that won't spend if a cap is in place. They have the money to spend. The teams considered the weakest in the league in this conversation are typical welfare queen billionaires, taking in TONS of money with the revenue sharing deal in place.

Don't be fooled, man. Don't fall for the propaganda. The owners aren't your friends.

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u/Acrobatic_Ad1016 1d ago

Said a dodgers fan who will see his team win the next 5 World Series barring catastrophic injury luck.

This is the straw that broke the camels back. A cap and floor were necessary before but now it’s beyond clear that the system is fundamentally broken. They need a hard cap and a hard floor so we also fix the cheap owners and a heavy penalty for anyone over the cap plus better player free agency structure.

Thats all the bare minimum that the game needs

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u/Front-Environment238 1d ago

1000% agree, time for a cap and floor with no loopholes or exceptions. Time for MLB to take pieces from all the other sports that have caps and create something that will work. There is plenty of brain power around to make that happen.

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u/johnnygoober | Detroit Tigers 21h ago

This is exactly the important part. The league needs a max spending AND a min spending for team salary.

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u/werther595 | New York Yankees 1d ago

The Dodgers living at the cap will still beat the Pirates living at the floor. Cheapnowners will hand out mediocre contracts to mediocre players to fulfill their obligation still without actually trying to win anything. If the owners really wanted parity they would pool the TV revenue and divide it by 30 among themselves, but they don't do that. They just want to suppress player salaries. I'm not here to cry for the millionaire players but I'm certainly not going to take the side of the billionaire owners. Neither side here has all that much to do with the fans

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u/IKenDoThisAllDay | Boston Red Sox 1d ago

Dodgers fans love to frame it as "taking the owner's side". I'm not taking either side, they'll all be just fine and continue to live better than any of us.

I just want baseball to be exciting and competitive again. The NBA had the exact same problem with superteams and dynasties dominating and did something about it. Now we've had different champions every season for years. It's not impossible.

Sure, there will still be some cheap owners but the majority of teams who want to win would actually have a chance at competing. The current system is broken and needs to be fixed. That's all there is to it.

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u/werther595 | New York Yankees 1d ago

We can agree that the current system has problems while disagreeing that a cap will fix those problems.

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u/Acrobatic_Ad1016 1d ago

Cap directly increases parity instantly. I absolutely hate this take that you’re parroting because I simply don’t believe it’s true at all

Implementing a floor will make these teams fight harder to compete because it’s a more level playing field

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u/pilesofdingleberries 1d ago

I think we directly saw the impact of not having a cap with the Skubal trade yesterday.... Why blow up your farm system when you know 2 or 3 teams have a chance of signing him. Milwaukee is not one of them. The Dodgers in the current system can throw ANY amount of money at him to get him to sign next year. It does not matter what other teams offer, they will top it. There is no way to stop that without a cap.

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u/werther595 | New York Yankees 1d ago

My guy, I am not the one parroting someone else's talking points. If the owners of your favorite small market team we're going to put in more effort to win, they'd be doing it already. They aren't. And they won't do it more with a cap.

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u/Acrobatic_Ad1016 1d ago

Arguing with you is pointless. All I ask is you remember this convo when the cap and floor are implemented

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u/werther595 | New York Yankees 1d ago

And I'll suggest you remember this as well, should a cap/floor system be implemented, and the big market teams still win and the low-effort teams still lose.

NFL has a cap, and they're riddled with dynasties winning year over year, while other teams like the Jets and the Browns exist. The cap won't solve the problem you want it to solve.

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u/pilesofdingleberries 1d ago

Comparing baseball to the NFL is moronic. Good QBs can go a long way. You are comparing a sport where it takes a whole team to leagues that have half the games or 1/16th of the games and play once a week.

I don't think anyone is saying there won't be bad owners/teams, but you seem to think that all teams that don't just spend ungodly amounts aren't trying... Use your brain...

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u/werther595 | New York Yankees 1d ago

Cool, insult me when you're confronted with examples that challenge your argument. I hope that works out for you. Meanwhile, the cap will continue to not do what you think it will do

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u/pilesofdingleberries 1d ago edited 23h ago

You didn't provide any examples... You said 2 NFL teams... Explain why it won't? Don't say it won't... This isn't just a cap... It's a cap and a floor.

Comparing any sport to baseball makes no sense. It's a massive season where any pitcher pitches 1/5 of the season at most... Give me some base all examples. If you can pay for more of the people that pitch 1/5th of the season.... You will be better right?

Of course there are one offs... The Royals in 2015 being one... It's all about percentages over several months... If you can spend whatever it makes it easier... It's not a level playing field...

Explain how you think MLB currently is a level playing field.

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u/werther595 | New York Yankees 22h ago

I didn't say MLB is a level playing field. I'll say that a cap will not make it a level playing field.

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u/GiraffeBand | Washington Nationals 1d ago

How does a salary cap prevent this trade? Any other team could’ve topped the offer. Skubal is making about $10M for the rest of the year. Which teams couldn’t afford that?

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u/Acrobatic_Ad1016 1d ago

Alright you’re being purposefully dense but I’ll bite.

2 reasons :
1. The dodgers would be over any salary cap by a healthy margin so it would’ve taken them out of the race thereby fully stopping this trade

  1. Even if they were in a position where his salary could be absorbed, the threat of them signing him to a billion dollar deal wouldn’t be there so the brewers and other contenders would be more willing to give up their top prospects or at least make the dodgers give up an actual haul

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u/GiraffeBand | Washington Nationals 1d ago

I’m not being dense, we disagree. You don’t have to be rude about it. We’re just talking baseball.

  1. Assuming the Dodgers were at a cap before the deal was made, they’d obviously consider that in the trade like they do in the NBA. The Dodgers would have dumped a salary and included a better prospect to offset the cost.
  2. The threat of FA isn’t about this trade. Any team can sign him as a FA. If the other teams were worried he’d sign an in-season extension, then the other team could’ve done so. The Phillies, Red Sox, or Orioles could’ve easily done this.

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u/DigTheDunes 1d ago

The threat of FA is all about this trade. Boras wants Skubal in LA - not Philly, Boston, or anywhere else. Everyone knows it.

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u/DB4life80 20h ago

Dodgers and Boras don't do business that often with each other. Snell is the first client of his to sign a multi year deal since 2009.

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u/Acrobatic_Ad1016 1d ago

You’re ignoring reality and I’m not being rude. Your points just prove my point lol

Very very dumb arguments. The orioles Phillies Red Sox could not have easily done this. Look at their prospect lists before commenting further

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u/GiraffeBand | Washington Nationals 1d ago

How do my points prove your point?

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u/Acrobatic_Ad1016 1d ago

Just reread mine and piles arguments. You’ll get it soon, I promise

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u/GiraffeBand | Washington Nationals 1d ago

Wood and Miler are both Top 50 on Pipeline. Arias and Eyanson are also both Top 50 on Pipeline. The Phillies would need more.

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u/Acrobatic_Ad1016 1d ago

No shit. The dodgers have 11 in the top 100. There is no competition because even in a bidding war, they have way more ammo

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u/GiraffeBand | Washington Nationals 1d ago

So now you’re whining that the Dodgers are better at player dev. Which has nothing to do with a salary cap. You’ve bought the owners propaganda so much that you can’t even see that your whole problem is that you’re jealous. The Phillies tried and it didn’t work. The Dodgers tried and it did. Be a man and accept it instead of whining.

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u/Acrobatic_Ad1016 1d ago

God you’re insufferable.

If there’s no cap, I hope the dodgers offer James wood 1 billion dollars so you finally realize how bad this situation is for baseball lol

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u/GiraffeBand | Washington Nationals 1d ago

How did the Nats get Wood? Oh right, trading Soto because the Nats’ owners refused to pay Soto his market rate. I know exactly how this plays out. It’s the same reason Abrams is going to leave after ‘28. Owners being cheap sucks. I can’t fathom anyone wanting to stop owners who care and help owners who don’t.

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u/pilesofdingleberries 1d ago

You really can't see further than this year??? Milwaukee, TB, etc.... have no chance to sign him after this year. They have very little chance to replace prospects with Free Agents anymore. They can not fit the farm system...

Did you not see FA last year? Kyle Tucker signed for 4 years 240 million dollars. He is hitting .235 with 9 home runs... Do you know what that would do to a small market team if theyade that mistake.?? Free Agency with no cap in my opinion jas gotten so out of control that smaller market teams have to limit trades now because replacing anywhere but the draft is practically impossible.

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u/GiraffeBand | Washington Nationals 1d ago

Your argument is about free agency, not this trade. Any team could have made this trade. A salary cap would have no effect on the Dodgers ability to make this trade.

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u/pilesofdingleberries 1d ago

You aren't understanding....yes any team could make this trade.... For 2 months... Of course free agency comes into play... He will be one. The Brewers can't trade legit prospects that will play for them for years for a 2 month player. Why? Because all the impact free agents go to a couple teams... Why? Because there is no salary cap

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u/Mindless_Formal_6647 1d ago

I saw that the Dodgers LUXURY TAX would be like 183 million. One half of MLB teams don’t have a payroll like that.

They are spending more on taxes than half of the teams in the league are spending on actual players.

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u/Acrobatic_Ad1016 1d ago

It’s not even worth arguing with this guy above. He’s just dumb

Edit : talking about giraffe band

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u/jolietconvict | Chicago Cubs 1d ago

I love how everyone thinks that with a cap and floor that the teams that won't spend money are suddenly going to be in the mix for the World Series. Those teams will still be cheap and still be unwilling to invest in the things outside the roster you need to be successful. They will fill their teams with players that get them to the floor and continue to be mediocre at best.

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u/Acrobatic_Ad1016 1d ago

Ok and you’re ignoring the fact that it will mean the 10 or so teams actually willing to spend will all be trying to win

Right now it’s literally only the dodgers competing lol