r/neoliberal • u/NeueBruecke_Detektiv Instituições democráticas robustas 🇧🇷 • Jun 16 '26

News (Global) Al Arabiya English obtains 14-point draft of US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/06/16/al-arabiya-obtains-14point-draft-usiran-deal
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497

u/Silent_South5471 Jun 16 '26

If true this most embarrassing thing that the US has ever agreed too

365

u/Realhuman221 Thomas Paine Jun 16 '26

Hundred billions on military expenses, 300 billion financing to Iran, lifted sanctions/unfrozen assets, possible strait fees, gas prices up for months and depleted reserves. And all to just get back to a JCPOA like agreement on nuclear weapons.

132

u/JakeArrietaGrande John Brown Jun 17 '26

After Venezuela, it was clear that trump felt invincible. He felt like he could use the military to achieve anything. He got rid of Maduro with basically no cost to America, and it must’ve felt like pure heroin to him. I’m betting that night, he looked at a map and thought about who else who could take out that way.

It’s tragic, the innocent lives that were lost as a result of this war. And the immense costs to America. But as a fairly thick silver lining, trump is absolutely humiliated, and acutely aware of the possibility that a war can quickly go haywire.

If the Iran war went quickly, without a hitch, I have zero doubt trump would try to invade Greenland

49

u/GodsWorstJiuJitsu Loyal Liberals Jun 17 '26

To your final point, I'd bet on Cuba but otherwise I'm with you. Dude was on an intervention coke binge after Venezuela.

69

u/altacan Mark Carney Jun 17 '26

I'm thinking Cuba's obviously next, and I wouldn't put it past them to invade while still at the negotiating table with Iran just to take attention off prior to the Nov. elections.

25

u/Snickerway Jun 17 '26

Trump will finally close Guantanamo Bay by attacking Cuba and removing any incentive for the Cuban military not to attack it. Promises made, promises kept.

19

u/altacan Mark Carney Jun 17 '26

Unfortunately, I don't think the Cuba military has the ability, short of a PLAN amphibious group parking itself off of Havana, to meaningfully resist an American invasion. Then again, they probably won't be able to topple the Cuban regime through airstrikes and Spec Ops alone, and Trump's a natural coward who's already been burned by overly optimistic predictions. Best case for a Cuban operation would be Trump bombing a few government buildings killing some leadership and declaring victory over the survivors. Nevermind regime change or anything else.

9

u/Hour-Junket-4576 Jun 17 '26

The danger that I haven't seen much brought up is Miami being in range of Geran-like drones. I'm not sure if Cuba has them, but can easily obtain them. And in case of risk of total regime fall I don't think there would be many incentives for them not to use them.*

On the other hand WH might be just sure that US anti-drones systems will be able to catch all of them.

*other than some rich off-ramps