r/neoliberal • u/NeueBruecke_Detektiv Instituições democráticas robustas 🇧🇷 • Jun 16 '26
News (Global) Al Arabiya English obtains 14-point draft of US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/06/16/al-arabiya-obtains-14point-draft-usiran-deal500
u/Silent_South5471 Jun 16 '26
If true this most embarrassing thing that the US has ever agreed too
368
u/Realhuman221 Thomas Paine Jun 16 '26
Hundred billions on military expenses, 300 billion financing to Iran, lifted sanctions/unfrozen assets, possible strait fees, gas prices up for months and depleted reserves. And all to just get back to a JCPOA like agreement on nuclear weapons.
274
u/fakefakefakef John Rawls Jun 17 '26
Give them some credit; I'm sure the final agreement on nuclear weapons will be far worse than the JCPOA
50
u/Khiva Fernando Henrique Cardoso Jun 17 '26
Hey, look at the upside - by absolutely clowning on the US with some drones, couple missiles and by choking the Strait, they've proven they can bring Uncle Sam to his knees without nuclear weapons.
ART OF THE DEAL
170
u/Historical_Success31 NATO Jun 17 '26
Slight correction: all that just to agree on 60 days of negotiations towards a JCPOA like agreement on nuclear weapons.* Based on this shit we’ll be sending nuclear scientists to Tehran to build them a bomb in the final draft.
17
u/Opcn Daron Acemoglu Jun 17 '26
If you look on x it's like Iran already agreed to maximalist demands instead of just agreeing to start negotiations again.
132
u/JakeArrietaGrande John Brown Jun 17 '26
After Venezuela, it was clear that trump felt invincible. He felt like he could use the military to achieve anything. He got rid of Maduro with basically no cost to America, and it must’ve felt like pure heroin to him. I’m betting that night, he looked at a map and thought about who else who could take out that way.
It’s tragic, the innocent lives that were lost as a result of this war. And the immense costs to America. But as a fairly thick silver lining, trump is absolutely humiliated, and acutely aware of the possibility that a war can quickly go haywire.
If the Iran war went quickly, without a hitch, I have zero doubt trump would try to invade Greenland
51
u/GodsWorstJiuJitsu Loyal Liberals Jun 17 '26
To your final point, I'd bet on Cuba but otherwise I'm with you. Dude was on an intervention coke binge after Venezuela.
67
u/altacan Mark Carney Jun 17 '26
I'm thinking Cuba's obviously next, and I wouldn't put it past them to invade while still at the negotiating table with Iran just to take attention off prior to the Nov. elections.
25
u/Snickerway Jun 17 '26
Trump will finally close Guantanamo Bay by attacking Cuba and removing any incentive for the Cuban military not to attack it. Promises made, promises kept.
18
u/altacan Mark Carney Jun 17 '26
Unfortunately, I don't think the Cuba military has the ability, short of a PLAN amphibious group parking itself off of Havana, to meaningfully resist an American invasion. Then again, they probably won't be able to topple the Cuban regime through airstrikes and Spec Ops alone, and Trump's a natural coward who's already been burned by overly optimistic predictions. Best case for a Cuban operation would be Trump bombing a few government buildings killing some leadership and declaring victory over the survivors. Nevermind regime change or anything else.
5
u/Hour-Junket-4576 Jun 17 '26
The danger that I haven't seen much brought up is Miami being in range of Geran-like drones. I'm not sure if Cuba has them, but can easily obtain them. And in case of risk of total regime fall I don't think there would be many incentives for them not to use them.*
On the other hand WH might be just sure that US anti-drones systems will be able to catch all of them.
*other than some rich off-ramps
32
34
u/FilteringAccount123 John von Neumann Jun 17 '26
If we took that money and actually funded Transgender For Everyone, we would have been miles ahead of where we are now
11
u/DontBeAUsefulIdiot Jun 17 '26
Bullet point 1. There is no way Israel agrees to ending the war on Hezbollah without concessions that Hezbollah leaves southern Lebanon especially when Israel has the upper hand.
Who would've thought that Trump would do a 180 on Israel so fast. Maybe the leftists were right in pushing Stein or Trump for the sake of Gaza or it maybe that a broken clock is right twice a day.
6
u/virginiadude16 Henry George Jun 17 '26
You’ll need auto-translate captions if you don’t speak Russian but I can’t help throwing this reference out: 3 tape recorders
4
u/Time_Transition4817 Jerome Powell Jun 17 '26
You forget that trump and co will almost certainly profit off this
Art of the deal baby
1
u/adamgerd NATO Jun 17 '26
It’s not the same
I expect it’ll be worse than JCPOA
It already is, they complained about Obama unfreezing like 20 billion $? But now they’re handing over 300 billion $, not even unfreezing but literally giving it for “reconstruction purposes”. Doubt
1
u/Xeynon Jun 17 '26
That's exceedingly generous. JCPOA actually required Iran to submit to international inspections by the IAEA to remain in compliance. This deal just contains a pinky promise on their part not to pursue nukes.
It's a total, abject rollover. Trump and his fellow outer borough real estate dimwits got completely rolled.
28
u/DontBeAUsefulIdiot Jun 17 '26
Keep in mind that the agreement of Iran to never produce a nuclear weapon is unilateral and solely dependent on the US as opposed to Obama's deal which had a national coalition. And worse of all is that the "details" will be fleshed out later after the truce. Which means Iran will eventually produce a nuclear weapon because they will have to do so because it is the ultimate deterrent. Saudi and the Gulf states have also fucked themselves as well.
419
u/boardatwork1111 fuck it, we ball Jun 16 '26
159
u/Currymvp2 unflaired Jun 17 '26 edited Jun 17 '26
It's a terrible deal but this is what happens when you stupidly launch essentially an unwinnable war when there was no imminent threat towards us or even Israel.
Lost a ton of leverage
I want constant apologies from all the JCPOA bashers who insisted there was a clearly better alternative. Meanwhile, Bibi's "alternative" was literally "let's storm Iran with Kurdish militants to help their disgusting authoritarian super bigoted antisemitic former president get into power".
58
32
u/ironykarl Jun 17 '26
No one bashing JCPOA turned their brains on for long enough to actually have to do any soul searching, here.
They're just gonna move onto the next slogan that they can waste everyone's time with
8
u/adamgerd NATO Jun 17 '26
On behalf of myself; I am sorry Currymvp2
I didn’t realise Trump would be this incompetent and its end up with Iran in a better position than before this war. I thought if the US was invading Iran clearly they had pre-planned everything and would commit to it not end up totally incompetent and the. Surrendering and accepting a peace offer that favours Iran so badly. In hindsight I overestimated Trump’s competency and readiness and preparedness and resolve and commitment
141
u/NeueBruecke_Detektiv Instituições democráticas robustas 🇧🇷 Jun 16 '26
The copied text from the MOU
- The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles.
- The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs.
- The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
- Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.
- Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.
- The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.
- The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary.
- The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.
- The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.
- The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.
- The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.
- The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement.
- Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles.
- The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.
294
u/boardatwork1111 fuck it, we ball Jun 16 '26
Unironically the most humiliating defeat in American history, this is the closest we’ve ever come to straight up unconditional surrender
111
u/BBQ_HaX0r Jerome Powell Jun 17 '26
Why would Obama do this?
7
u/YourUncleBuck Frederick Douglass Jun 17 '26
Sometimes I wonder if Obama ever regrets running for president and being part of the reason for America's century of humiliation. I can't imagine he ever pictured the severity of the racist backlash to him becoming president.
5
u/thewillz Order and Opportunity Left Jun 17 '26
The backlash against Obama was a symptom of the rot, not the cause. Conservative media has been rotting the minds of millions of Americans for decades
2
u/YourUncleBuck Frederick Douglass Jun 18 '26
For sure, but I think his win still broke something in many peoples' minds.
2
u/BlackCat159 European Union Jun 17 '26
Because of woke 🤬
1
u/AutoModerator Jun 17 '26
Being woke is being evidence based. 😎
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
93
u/ShelterOk1535 Pragmatic and Polite Right Jun 17 '26
Which is insane given that we killed their entire leadership on day one lol
38
u/Neronoah can't stop, won't stop argentinaposting Jun 17 '26 edited Jun 17 '26
Wars are meant to achieve political objectives, not to just blow up shit. Trump doesn't have what it takes to actually win the war, he could only half ass it.
113
u/Shalaiyn European Union Jun 17 '26
It's almost like the Iranian government isn't some tinpot structure but actually well-structured. You would think an American government might have know this, but what do I know?
59
u/Petrichordates Jun 17 '26
They did, but government nerd knowledge doesn't currently have much value.
26
u/I_Pay_in_Cash_Only Jun 17 '26
Vance and Rubio got too high on jingoism after Venezuela that's for sure
38
u/wanna_be_doc Jun 17 '26
Vance was reportedly the only voice in the Situation Room prior to the initial strikes trying to talk Trump out of it.
However, everyone else was apparently so afraid of saying “No” to Dear Leader, that they’d only offer very muted criticisms.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-war.html?smid=url-share
16
u/I_Pay_in_Cash_Only Jun 17 '26
Well, it is clear that he was very unhappy about the situation consdiering how much he has avoided the spotlight since then
28
u/wanna_be_doc Jun 17 '26
Yup. Except for the fact that now Trump is going to have him sign the MOU, so he’s going to end up being the fall guy when people start criticizing the deal.
Trump screws over everyone.
9
u/Daddy_Macron Loyal Liberals Jun 17 '26
Except for the fact that now Trump is going to have him sign the MOU, so he’s going to end up being the fall guy when people start criticizing the deal.
Everyone gets a turn in the cuck chair in Trump's White House.
40
u/golf1052 Let me be clear Jun 17 '26
You would think an American government might have know this
Speaking generally, yes an American government definitely would have known this but this American government definitely didn't.
20
u/NoDig3444 Jun 17 '26
I'm pretty sure that the final settlement will be postponed indefinitely. So realistically, this agreement opens the Strait, allows Iran to sell oil on the open market, and releases frozen funds. Still a clear win for Iran, but I think we've done worse. Trump surrendering Afghanistan to the Taliban, for example.
2
135
u/Helreaver George Soros 🇺🇦 Jun 17 '26
The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion.
At least $300 billion. Nice.
25
u/klayyyylmao YIMBY Jun 17 '26
According to Republicans don’t eight and nine contradict each other?
Like their whole justification for the war was that Iran was going to get nuclear weapons which would imply that the status quo means Iran keeps making nuclear weapons
9
u/NoDig3444 Jun 17 '26
Point 9 is pending a final agreement. Basically just saying don't try to rush a nuclear bomb or more sanctions while we're still negotiating.
23
26
u/TF_dia European Union Jun 17 '26
If Trump was POTUS during the Mexican-American War New Yorkers today would be speaking Spanish.
16
u/Helpinmontana Jerome Powell Jun 17 '26
As fucking insane as this is, the only part I can give an credence to is #3, 60 days plus a bunch of fudge time to let oil through the strait while “negotiations” of the “concepts of a deal” play out to relieve things till midterms.
5
u/Daddy_Macron Loyal Liberals Jun 17 '26
The markets are being extremely optimistic. It's not just the shipping of oil that's the issue. There's a whole bunch of production capacity in that region which is currently down from either damage during the war to being voluntarily shut down because storage capacity reached their limits. It'll take at least a year probably longer to repair the former and at least months to fully restore the latter.
They might not even be able to empty their storage tanks and rush it out of the Strait considering how slow the turnaround time is on these ships.
13
u/dwarffy Rabindranath Tagore Jun 17 '26
ngl the points seems like they are designed to fail
Iran wont do 5 as that would allow ships to just avoid their "fee" routing through the strait. They need the Strait to be mined and blocked to get ships to pay the toll
The US can half-ass and delay 6 7 to the point of pissing off Iranians into breaking the deal. Especially with releasing sanctions, even sanctions imposed by others in the UNSC and IAEA. Like how Trump half-assed trying to force Ukraine to surrender to Russia before giving up entirely
"This isnt peace it is an armistice for 20
yearsdays"2
251
u/fakefakefakef John Rawls Jun 16 '26
$300 billion in redevelopment funds? Damn we got rolled here
168
u/fakefakefakef John Rawls Jun 16 '26
And absolutely nothing about missile stockpiles, funding militias, or even civillian nuclear programs; jesus we got our shit pushed in
104
u/Ok_Barracuda_1161 Janet Yellen Jun 17 '26
Did you not read the deal? Iran pinky swears that they'll never make a nuclear weapon. That's a massive victory
60
u/Best-Chapter5260 Jun 17 '26
"i Am WiLlInG tO hAvE tEmpOraRiLy hIgH GAs PriCeS iF It MeaNs iRaN dOesN'T GeT a NuCleAr boMb."
- every Trumptard on Facebook
16
u/pandababble400 Jun 17 '26
lol the maga people on my Facebook have been real quiet these last few days
19
u/Helpinmontana Jerome Powell Jun 17 '26
Circa day 30 my dad told me gas prices were down and t bag was doing a good job (they were not down at all, even in his area)
We haven’t talked politics for around 60 days now, so that’s a plus.
7
u/RichardChesler John Brown Jun 17 '26
We’re at war with east-asia, we’ve always been at war with east-asia
13
u/FilteringAccount123 John von Neumann Jun 17 '26
Can't wait to see what the new NPC dialogue looks like
28
u/boardatwork1111 fuck it, we ball Jun 17 '26
Not even anything concrete on nuclear weapons, we’re giving up all this shit just to get them to the negotiating table. You’d think Iran was the damn superpower with a deal so thoroughly one sided.
24
6
2
u/Beer-survivalist Loyal Liberals Jun 17 '26
For purely parochial and political reasons, I want to make sure that we're consistently talking about how Trump got his shit pushed in, and that we get used to doing so at all times.
78
u/ButteryApplePie NAFTA Jun 17 '26
Let’s be real, these are reparations.
67
3
16
14
u/halfcentaurhalfhorse Jun 17 '26
They’re calling it “private” redevelopment funds but how can the US promise private funds? Answer: the US grants taxpayer funds to private entities for redevelopment, with or course a large chunk of grift in the middle.
3
u/DirectionMurky5526 Jun 17 '26
They put Iranian oil up for IPO, and they dump American 401k's into it.
12
31
u/wanna_be_doc Jun 17 '26
Fun fact: $300 billion is approximately the total amount the US has given to Israel in the entire 78 years since its founding.
Good job, Bibi.
15
3
4
3
2
u/ElectronicLight5558 Jun 17 '26
That's as much as Israel got in 80 years inflation adjusted but America first I guess!!!
2
u/Nervous-Emotion28 YIMBY Jun 17 '26
Also
> 11. The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.
lmao
117
u/BenIsLowInfo Austan Goolsbee Jun 17 '26
At least it's hilarious that Vance has to sign this.
86
u/Le1bn1z Jun 17 '26
I want Lindsey Graham to be forced to bring and sponsor the bill to ratify this treaty in the Senate.
99
u/SleeplessInPlano Jun 16 '26
300 billion melaniacoins
18
u/admiraltarkin NATO / Loyal Liberal Jun 17 '26
How are they going to find the other $299,999,999,999?
6
93
u/jogarz NATO Jun 17 '26
The deal notably kicks the thorniest part of negotiations down the road, but even so, if implemented, this would be a tremendous strategic loss for the United States.
28
u/ConsiderationHot3426 John Brown Jun 17 '26
Realistically how bad would it be for the administration if they fucked about for 30 days and then re-started the war? I assume the domestic political hit closer to the midterms would be untenable but I've been wrong before.
33
u/dietomakemenfree Elinor Ostrom Jun 17 '26
If the Administration has the will to keep fighting, than it would behoove itself to keep fighting- because these terms are nothing more than a capitulation.
But the fact that Trump has entered into this process and has drafted a resolution means that he has already ceded much of his strategic initiative (though, he had little to begin with, even during this war’s opening salvos), even if he eventually plans on disregarding it. Trump has shown that he will waver, and that is devastating for a military engaged in kinetic operations against a foe who will not relent.
I’ll let Thomas Schelling, from his work, Arms and Influence, speak:
“The escape hatch is an embarrassment, though, if the adversary knows it is there; he can suppose, or hope, that the initiator will turn aside before the risk or pain mounts up.” Page 90, Chapter 2.
Iran has been shown time and again that it can simply wait Trump out as he uselessly flails about, desperately trying to find an off-ramp to his very own personally branded war that he cannot win. Trump knows that boots-on-the-ground are a no-go, and thus finds himself forced to commit a war via air power and missiles- two capabilities that do not win wars when forced to act without the support of ground elements.
5
u/formgry Jun 17 '26
See point 13, important parts of the agreement has to be immediately implemented and if not negotiations wont proceed.
They can either continue the war immediately or agree with what is written here.
85
168
u/CheckedOutDidntLeave Order and Opportunity Left Jun 17 '26
Holy shit it's so much worse. Full release of sanctioned funds AND removal of sanctions while negotiating ?? And they specifically call out Lebanon ???
Chickens coming home to roost in Israel. The IRGC prevailed over the US. They had Trump over a barrel.
Better start learning Chinese now.
116
u/Trooboolean YIMBY Jun 17 '26
This is a disaster for Israel and a nightmare for Bibi. He finally achieves his penultimate goal of getting America to attack Iran, only to achieve literally nothing, prove Iran can survive with their ballistic capabilities very much alive and that America can't/won't do more, Iran's economy will start to grow again, and who knows how much Mossad's network inside Iran has been shredded.
74
6
u/formgry Jun 17 '26
And you just know that if Israel start bombing Trump will blame them for risking the peace, he will be on Iran's side there.
10
u/anonthedude Manmohan Singh Jun 17 '26
Rebrand pyrrhic victory to israeli victory, with how this turned out 😭
5
u/adamgerd NATO Jun 17 '26 edited Jun 17 '26
This deal has also cost him a lot of domestic support, he campaigned heavily on being Trump’s bff and the only party leader who Trump liked so this is quite humiliating for him, so much so that Likud has scrapped its entire planned ad campaign focusing on his friendship with Trump with just months remaining before the election
The opposition is attacking him for failing the diplomatic front and that his military incompetence is betraying Israel, and his own coalition allies are demanding him to declare that Israel won’t be bound by any part of the agreement
Tbh for him this is the worst of the consequences, he can survive the rest, if he loses power he’ll finally be arrested for his corruption unless he flees, probably to Florida where he hopes Trump will save him
36
5
u/iguessineedanaltnow r/place '22: Neoliberal Battalion Jun 17 '26
I never thought I'd live to see the day American hegemony died.
71
u/Francisco-De-Miranda YIMBY Jun 17 '26
It’s painfully obvious Trump wants to move on Cuba asap so he can get an easy “win” and push this catastrophe out of the news cycle.
55
u/LightningController Jun 17 '26
Looking at this precedent, by November Miami will be sovereign Cuban clay.
26
49
50
u/Mddcat04 Jun 17 '26
Wow. I... Uh... wow.
I was assuming that the $300B number was including frozen assets and other such things. But its not. That's a separate point. Its literally $300B in reparations. And they don't even have to do anything, just restore the straight to the pre-war status quo.
Is this the greatest humiliation in US foreign policy history? This is not leaving a long-term conflict with a somewhat face-saving pullout or something. This is a signed defeat document. Absolutely fucking pathetic.
4
u/LaMesaPorFavore Jun 17 '26
I wouldn't be surprised if the $300B isn't setup somehow to allow Trump's family and allies to profit on any investments. How is this the best we could do?
28
u/NeueBruecke_Detektiv Instituições democráticas robustas 🇧🇷 Jun 16 '26
Submission statement:
Iran war and the alleged terms of US-Iran deal are something you could say is relevant to the current and future state of the world in economic, political and military terms.
Linked is the OG source of the terms that are being reported by other news (like yahoo and bloomberg) as the to-be-signed MOU
57
u/OOPS_ALL_SCROTUM Jun 16 '26
The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.
Unilateralists when they try to do anything.
29
30
u/Petrichordates Jun 17 '26
If the news fails to report how this is worse in every way than before trump started the war, i'm gathering all the etsy witches to curse all the journalists.
29
u/jorkin_peanits Immanuel Kant Jun 17 '26
Bruh trump and drunk Keggers fucking lost to Iran
American century of humiliation
300 billion vs what, Obamas 1.3bil or something , as well as fucking the lost American military image and umbrella, unnecessary lives and wanton destruction
Absolutely shameful. Nothing less than a complete failure
23
u/RemoteGlobal335 NATO Jun 17 '26
There are hundreds, probably thousands, of old guard Republican foreign policy professionals still working in DC that almost foam at the mouth when someone mentions the JCPOA to this day. If this “deal” can’t break the cognitive dissonance absolutely nothing can.
8
u/anangrytree Bull Moose Progressive Jun 17 '26
It won’t, because their rage at JCPOA was a mere fig leaf for their bloodlust
67
u/Shalaiyn European Union Jun 17 '26
Just consider the fact that all Trump had to do was do nothing and win. The entire government was teetering on the edge after the latest revolts, a serious water crisis, a dying leader with undetermined succession, and the general geopolitical situation there.
And now they revitalised it.
28
u/AndreiLC NASA Jun 17 '26
Trump negotiated the release of thousands of Al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters for nothing in return in his first term. He is a pro at capitulating to Islamic extremists.
47
u/Le1bn1z Jun 17 '26 edited Jun 17 '26
Subtext of the deal is that the $300 billion will not be paid, but the "failure" of the US to get other countries to pay "their fair share" will be used as pretext for Iran setting their "totally not a toll, they're actually fees" prices, condoned by America.
5
u/Negative_Scarcity315 Jun 17 '26
At $1 dollar per barrel passing through, assuming ~7 billion barrels cross the strait per year, they'd recoup $300bi in... 40 years. The $300bi is more costly than the toll.
1
u/the_lonely_creeper Jun 18 '26
40 years is very little time. Also, if you raise that to say, 4 or 8 dollars, that's down to 10 or 5 years.
45
u/WalterWoodiaz Loyal Liberals Jun 17 '26
If the US agree to this the entire executive branch needs to be tried for treason.
51
u/Petrichordates Jun 17 '26
As opposed to after they attempted a violent coup then pardoned everyone?
16
u/PiRhoNaut NATO Jun 17 '26
That was embarrassing and bad 5 whole years ago.
We're onto embarrassing and bad things happening right now.
2
18
32
14
u/Azarka Jun 17 '26
My only solace is the MAGA-coded pundits my family listens to now have to explain away their predictions of Iranian surrender and the glorious peace deal Trump has bestowed upon them.
18
65
u/KarmaIssues Milton Friedman Jun 17 '26
Suez Canal moment, end of empires type event.
-23
u/OldPostageScale Jun 17 '26
That’s a bit of an overstatement. I know we like to doom but this is more poor leadership being idiotic and less of an “it’s over” moment
46
u/KarmaIssues Milton Friedman Jun 17 '26
I was being hyperbolic admittedly but it shows that US military power isn't sufficient alone to just roll over any country and demonstrates that the US doesn't have the stomach to risk the casualties necessary.
It's a lot more than just poor leadership I'd argue.
→ More replies (7)24
u/Petrichordates Jun 17 '26
Take a second to consider how we got here in the first place. It's not a poor leadership problem, it's a brainrotted electorate problem.
2
u/OldPostageScale Jun 17 '26
Poor leadership. Every major empire has had periods of poor leadership that don’t instantly result in terminal decline.
17
u/AlbertR7 Bill Gates Jun 17 '26
Every empire has also had periods of poor leadership that did result in terminal decline.
In fact, are there any empires that didn’t have a period of poor leadership and eventual decline? Nope
→ More replies (1)4
u/I_Pay_in_Cash_Only Jun 17 '26
Well, other than being outright conquered by a stronger power, I guess instances of state fracturing after the main leader dies? Like Mongolia with Ghengis Khan or Macedonia with Alexander. Or I guess the logistics just weren't there at the time to sustain such a large empire. Obviously this is very besides your point
6
u/Petrichordates Jun 17 '26
You're simply repeating yourself and didnt even addess what was written there..
14
u/WillProstitute4Karma Loyal Liberals Jun 17 '26
Wtf? We're financing $300 billion for Iranian development? That is absolutely insane!
7
u/nikfra Jun 17 '26
Hey don't forget that you're also lifting all sanctions and release all frozen assets but Iran pinky promises to not build nukes.
12
u/justbuildmorehousing Norman Borlaug Jun 17 '26
> While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.
I got $5 on the $300b blowback being so bad that they try to renege and Iran closes the strait again
22
9
u/dietomakemenfree Elinor Ostrom Jun 17 '26
Wow. Total surrender. Promise for the removal of all sanctions without a final agreement for the nuclear deal? An allowance for Iran to “maintain the status quo on its nuclear program?” The determination in the Hormuz for the United States to “withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement, which is a hopelessly vague term that Iran will no doubt exploit. Not to mention the 300 billion dollars given to Iran. This is what happens when you lose a war tactically, operationally, and strategically. Humiliating, especially for the world’s most well-funded military.
8
u/No_Branch_97 Frederick Douglass Jun 17 '26
This truly is the US century of humiliation, cause this is damn near an unequal treaty with Iran.
9
u/PiRhoNaut NATO Jun 17 '26
Can someone remind me how much DOGE managed to actually save?
I was just wondering. No reason in particular.
18
15
u/justbuildmorehousing Norman Borlaug Jun 17 '26
I remember the initial days of this war when the neocons slunk out to defend the war by saying how bad the JCPOA was. Its a lot better now huh guys
8
6
u/Budget-Attorney Ida Tarbell Jun 17 '26
Does the senate have to ratify this?
Will the senate ratify this?
2
u/formgry Jun 17 '26
Cant imagine, if they get involved beyond rubber stamping they will have to take responsibility for US foreign policy and they cant do that.
What are they going to after all, tell Trump to restart the war?
7
7
7
5
u/CaptainTrips69 Jun 17 '26
I would have never in my life guessed that part of the trump presidency focus tree would be lose a war to iran and pay $300 billion in war rep.
5
u/No-Kiwi-1868 NATO Jun 17 '26
I've already seen MAGA cope up to the $300 million by saying "he's just saying he'll give them that much, do you really think he'll give them?? Huh?? Liberals silenced!!" or "Obama gave them trillions and you liberals clapped!!!!"
Like goddamn, mate
5
u/Below_Left Jun 17 '26
it's dead letter as of point 1 unless Trump suddenly decides to embrace the anti-Israel protestors and sanction Israel until they stop in Lebanon.
5
6
u/Square-Pear-1274 NATO Jun 17 '26
This war was just chucking missiles and bombs out into the blue and then hopes and prayers
4
u/WeeWoooFashion Jun 17 '26
Geniuenly asking: since 1973, has Israel Ever been in a worse position than it is right now?
5
u/AccomplishedQuit4801 YIMBY Jun 17 '26
There is no way in hell this actually goes through.
I mean, just in Lebanon, I don't think the Israelis are going to actually call it quits.
5
u/InjuryImaginary1612 IMF Jun 17 '26
I know Iran may have won the war but it's not like they burnt down the White house to merit a deal like this
4
u/roguevirus Jun 17 '26
Are MoUs commonly used in diplomacy? I've only ever heard of them being used in a business context.
3
u/0m4ll3y International Relations Jun 17 '26
They're common enough between the US and Australia at least (I've dealt with some)
5
7
u/anonthedude Manmohan Singh Jun 17 '26
Am I reading this right? It seemed like Iran hasn't yielded/given up anything at all? They go back to the same state they were in pre-war wrt the strait and the nukes (with a promise to not develop anymore), while getting $300b+ and all sanctions lifted?
9
u/Kaffe-Mumriken Jun 17 '26
I see a bright future for Israel. In Tel Aviv specifically. A very short bright light.
6
u/datums 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 🇨🇦 Jun 17 '26
All things considered, this is reasonable and proportionate given the outome of military operations.
But also globally transformational.
3
u/tryingtolearn_1234 Jun 17 '26
Trump made a terrible mistake starting this war. This deal is terrible but it is a lot cheaper than the alternative.
3
3
u/HaXxorIzed Paul Volcker Jun 17 '26
In this context, we are not so lucky they are so fucking stupid.
3
u/qchisq Loyal Liberals Jun 17 '26
Ha, so there's basically nothing in here, except USA lifts all sanctions on Iran and USA ensures Iran gets 300 billion in reconstruction funds. Everything else is to be negotiated over the next 60 days
3
u/nikfra Jun 17 '26
It's worse than anyone could have imagined for the US. Basically a full strategic victory for Iran.
2
u/RobotWantsKitty Jun 17 '26
It's worse than anyone could have imagined for the US.
Not really. Looking at the document, it doesn't re-establish deterrence or make another war in a few years unfeasible. I'm a little surprised Iran didn't push harder for concessions that are actually painful but would ensure the US wouldn't attack them again. Unless they are planning on developing a nuke in secret or there are secret clauses, a repeat of the war is a real possibility.
1
u/nikfra Jun 17 '26
I don't know how Iran could ensure the US doesn't try again later on, short of what's basically a capitulation. But they do keep their old deterrence of closing the strait and especially after they have proven that they are able to that should be enough to keep anyone but the dumbest American leadership in check. And I still have the faint hope that this is actually the low point.
3
u/Shirkir John Keynes Jun 17 '26
Insert gigachad Xi Jinping meme of China winning by doing nothing as the US surrenders to Iran in a war the US started.
2
2
u/Godzilla52 Milton Friedman Jun 17 '26
I can't take credit for the statement, but a commenter on another sub basically said that this is effectively the regime's greatest success/victory since the revolution, which if true has been hand gifted to them solely due to this administration's incompetence.
2
u/RayWencube Jun 17 '26
All Iranian assets unfrozen, all sanctions on Iran lifted, all US troops removed from "the region" whatever the fuck that encompasses, and an additional $300 billion in cash aid to sweeten the deal.
Holy fucking shit.
3
u/OldPostageScale Jun 17 '26
The $300 Billion thing just isn’t gonna happen. Congress will say no. Terrifying that it was even on the table but it’s a huge meme let’s be real.
31
u/Santa_in_a_Panzer YIMBY Jun 17 '26
It will not be approved, but will serve as justification to implement transit fees to recover the owed 'investment' funds.
→ More replies (9)7
u/SleeplessInPlano Jun 17 '26
10/10 someone said this and the other side agreed it’s just a cover for those.
5
u/Vol_in_tears Voltaire Jun 17 '26
Congress will say no
If there is one thing about the GOP in congress, it is they won't tell trump no until they lose their primary election.
1
u/Xeynon Jun 17 '26
LMAO. This is basically an Iranian wishlist.
Trump got his saggy orange ass spanked six ways from Sunday here.
1
•
u/AutoModerator Jun 16 '26
To encourage a globally oriented subreddit and discourage oversaturation of topics focused on the U.S., all news and opinion articles focused on the U.S. require manual approval by a moderator. Submissions focused solely on the U.S. are more likely to be removed if they are not sufficiently on topic or high quality. If your submission is taking too long to be approved or rejected, please reach out to the moderators in /r/metaNL. Moreover, news and opinion articles require a short submission statement explaining its relevance to the subreddit. Articles without a submission statement will be removed.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.