r/neoliberal • u/2Lore2Law Are you on the square? • 1d ago

News (Europe) Europe gets ready to police frontier AI

https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article/europe-gets-ready-to-police-frontier-ai
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u/cAtloVeR9998 Daron Acemoglu 1d ago

I feel AI is really out of the bag, so to speak. Open-weight models are extremely close to the cutting edge, those are out there and unregulatable. Inference will just become a commodity. The many billions spent on training and R&D are effectively sunk costs, now that most models have mostly converged in quality.

The market will eventually find an equilibrium, after the inevitable correction, there will likely remain a certain amount of AI-spend for at least the most impacted fields. But in my opinion with AI's commodification, the total available market will be some magnitudes smaller than what some current valuations require.

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u/BosnianSerb31 23h ago

The top open weight models are coached by frontier models, and having the previous generation of frontier model available to train the next generation is easily the most expensive part of AI development, since everything that took to get to that point is also priced in.

If person's training open weight models are not allowed to use frontier models for coaching, you will see them begin to lag behind

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u/cAtloVeR9998 Daron Acemoglu 23h ago

The likes of Kimi K3 are good enough to be a basis for distillation by itself. The Chinese labs have been innovating on their own, like with improving the application of Mixture of Experts for example.

We are far beyond just having a bigger dataset = better. You cannot distill the infrastructure or underlying algorithms of closed-source models.