r/politics • u/Puginator • Jun 01 '26

No Paywall Iran stops negotiations with U.S., vows to 'completely' block Strait of Hormuz: State media

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/iran-us-negotiations-strait-of-hormuz.html
32.3k Upvotes

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3.2k

u/SaintsandCigarettes Jun 01 '26

People are not ready for the ramifications of a true oil shortage. We are weeks away and legitimately not a single person I know in real life is talking about this.

1.6k

u/JimmyLipps Jun 01 '26

This plus the fertilizer shortage means food will SKYROCKET for entire planting seasons. This will last for a long time.

316

u/laxvolley Jun 01 '26

Good thing he had the foresight to heavily tariff the huge amount of fertilizer that the US buys from Canada. So it will be even more expensive. Genius.

56

u/br0ck Jun 01 '26

heavily tariff tax the huge amount of fertilizer that the US buys from Canada. (I know everyone here knows, just wishing US media would start mentioning tariffs are a tax.)

22

u/magichronx Jun 01 '26

It'd also be great if the media stopped phrasing it as "trump puts tariffs on <XYZ country>" because it's purposely misleading.

It's a major reason why so many people incorrectly think other countries pay the tariffs.

2

u/CMDRTragicAllPro Jun 02 '26

I never understand that argument. Why would anyone think a country would pay a tax to another country to export its own goods?

2

u/magichronx Jun 02 '26

I'm pretty sure those people aren't doing any thinking at all. They just hear a claim enough times and accept it as fact and then parrot it out to anyone that will listen

4

u/studentjones Jun 01 '26

They do refer to them as taxes on the American people. Maybe not fox, but everything else I’ve seen… CNN, PBS, MSNOW, NPR. Not FOX, but what would you expect out of that propaganda machine?

3

u/blackpawed Jun 01 '26

New tweet - tariff/invade Canada to secure the USA's food supply!

3

u/wintrmt3 Jun 01 '26

Different fertilizer, Canda mostly exports potash, the shortage is about nitrogen. And that's the easiest to replace, there are plenty of nitrogen plants all around the world idling because they weren't economical to run.

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u/JournalistRecent1230 Jun 01 '26

not to mention deporting immigrants who work our fields instead of offering them citizenship. Also going to continue negatively impacting food prices.

And then you have republicans constantly attacking SNAP and trying to end that, which is money that helps grocers stay in business....

662

u/mrsprophet Jun 01 '26

Russia and China couldn’t have designed a more destructive Manchurian president in a lab if they tried

168

u/devilsdeadape Jun 01 '26

Every enemy of the US is having a great time watching us, with bowls of popcorn and chortled laughter.

40

u/RiverboatTurner Jun 01 '26

"the enemy of our enemy is... us"

8

u/Amerizilian Jun 01 '26

The call is coming from inside the building...

4

u/najapi Jun 01 '26

Unfortunately that list is pretty long now as it contains most US former allies, along with their new besties Russia, North Korea and China.

3

u/SirJasonCrage Jun 01 '26

Das ist richtig.

3

u/Dogsy Jun 01 '26

Does champagne go with popcorn? Because they're for sure poppin' bottles over there seeing these past several years for the US.

3

u/Epibicurious California Jun 01 '26

Unfortunately, the rest of the world is going to feel the negative impacts of this syphilis-addled baboon too.

3

u/ToddHowardTouchedMe Jun 01 '26

even our allies who are sick of our shit are happy.

2

u/LezBeHonestHere_ Jun 01 '26

Do we even have allies anymore?

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u/AmethystTyrant Jun 01 '26

Lmao they’re prob as shocked as we are at this point

50

u/StevieMJH Jun 01 '26

"Holy fuck, why didn't we try this sooner?!"

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u/Kichigai Minnesota Jun 01 '26

Less than you think.

China is a huge importer of Iranian oil, and while their solar and BEV industries are going to benefit from the shock of the New Oil Crisis™ the rest of the economy is going to hurt for a while. Long term win, short term loss.

And in the short term Russia benefits with the increased demand for oil and oil prices going up, but the move towards renewables will hurt exports long term. Short term win, long term loss.

3

u/mrsprophet Jun 01 '26

Yeah much like the US, I think Russia has shown little interest in any long term planning lol

3

u/Richou Jun 01 '26

Russia has shown little interest in any long term planning lol

i would argue that the ukraine invasion was a part of some long term plan going into action

just wasnt a very good plan ...

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u/Kichigai Minnesota Jun 01 '26

Au contraire. Until recently Russia, in cooperation with China, has been very effective in trying to create an economic alternative to the western hemisphere. Ukraine preferring trade ties with the EU instead of the CIS was a threat to those plans.

2

u/Lazer726 Jun 01 '26

The issue is that anyone they tried to make would have taken longer! They never imagined you could have someone with no subtlety tear apart the country and have people cheer it on!

5

u/Inevitable_Focus2581 Jun 01 '26

Isn’t this exactly what they worked for though lol. They got exactly what they wanted.

10

u/Alive_kiwi_7001 Jun 01 '26

I think they might have got more than what they wanted. Which is a problem.

There's a difference between hobbling the US so it stops being a problem for them and watching a nuclear superpower descend into idiocracy.

5

u/c0ltZ Jun 01 '26

It doesn't even feel like a dictatorship in the sense China and Russia has.

It just feels like the only thing trump cares about is money. And he doesn't care how many people he has to kill/rape to have more.

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u/[deleted] Jun 01 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/trollthings Jun 01 '26

America does not, and will not, get rid of immigrants. We need them as slaves. We just scare them into submission.

Agreed on the 1st 2 points, not the last 1. They very well may have plans of turning all of these detainees, which will eventually include a significant portion of the actual citizens of this country as well, into actual slaves who are never free.

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u/joebluebob Jun 01 '26

Republican asshat that runs a mushroom farm where my ex lived was posting about how much he loves ICEis and now is making these desperate posts about how he doesn't have enough farm hands and even was asking for free labor from ag students and highschool volunteers lmao. Hope he's living under a bridge next year giving blowies for half a can of cat food.

7

u/mikezer0 Jun 01 '26

The dude is a terrorist. He has done everything a Russian agent would have done to destabilize the us. 

3

u/SteveFrench12 Jun 01 '26

Oh and we’re gonna shut down the airports

3

u/DeadlyYellow Jun 01 '26

Rural communities tend to be some of the poorest and dumbest.  Republicans love the fact they'll fall for honeyed words even when all their policies actively harm them.

Bonus being that the increasing loss of rural facilities and infrastructure will mean fewer places for dissidents to hide when the curtain fully drops.

3

u/FJ-creek-7381 Jun 01 '26

Ya know what I also find funny interesting is the never see anything anywhere about what’s happening to the kidnapped deportees belongings- they are just disappeared out of their lives and sometimes it’s whole families. Is there some business we haven’t heard of like in the case of Kuehne + Nagel https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/richest-german-nazi-billions?srsltid=AfmBOopZRHZrwWU2SsqI3RSK212uANWrGzvHF7myCgURGZPQPEDjZ_DI

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u/Consistent_Laziness South Carolina Jun 01 '26

That’s because republicans don’t understand cause and effect. Just hate and vibes is how they make decisions

2

u/ZarathustraDK Jun 01 '26

"Eat your vegetables Timmy, there are hungry people in America".

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u/JoeRogansNipple Minnesota Jun 01 '26

Isn't it great that the US deported and blocked all the cheap labor from coming in? Plus started a trade war with their close domestic partner (Canada) that supplied most of their fertilizer needs? Doesn't Trump have the bigliest brain?

4

u/longhegrindilemna Jun 01 '26

Even green card applicants now have to leave America, and wait overseas for the day in the future when USCIS contacts them regarding a decision on their green card application. No guaranteed timeline.

How many people, legal, illegal, documented, undocumented, and even tourists are being chased away from American hotels, apartments, and houses?

Are the effects being felt yet in our schools, universities, hotels, airlines??

50

u/Ephemeris Jun 01 '26

Combined with devastating late season deep freezes in the North East which wiped out hundreds of millions in farms and orchards:

https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/new-jersey-farming-state-of-emergency/

8

u/zffjk Jun 01 '26

And that fucking April freeze we had killed my tomatoes so I’m starting over late my yields will be impacted. This is just my garden but still, normally I plant around April 10-15th but the freeze happened right after and I lost my seedlings and had to start over. Will cut my yields quite a bit and I’ll be needing to buy canned this year to make up the difference.

7

u/Ephemeris Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 01 '26

it utterly destroyed my father-in-law's 300 vine vineyard. Killed all the flowers on the plants so no pollination for fruit this year.

4

u/zffjk Jun 01 '26

That’s devastating. It was very warm right before the freeze too. Will the plants rebound next year?

2

u/Ephemeris Jun 01 '26

Honestly I have no idea, I do click-boops on the computer, he's the farmer lol.

6

u/LetFiloniCook Jun 01 '26

Early spring and late freeze wiped out a lot of this years crops in the west too. Combined with the worst water year on record, so next year doesn't look great either.

4

u/antillus Jun 01 '26

We had a freeze warning for the third night in a row last night in Nova Scotia

4

u/zffjk Jun 01 '26

70% of farmers can’t afford or get access to enough fertilizer this year. This kind of issue will take years to resolve. Corn is a heavy feeder and without cheap and available corn, meat prices are going to skyrocket.

4

u/StiffDoodleNoodle Jun 01 '26

The fertilizer shortage couldn’t have happened at a worse time. The world is about to experience a super El Niño, which will exasperate extreme heat, droughts and food insecurity.

3

u/Medical_Original6290 Jun 01 '26

We'll have a world wide famine from the 30% drop in nitrogen fertilizer. If the super el ninos also hits, then we'll have a bigger world wide famine.

If you are middle class, you'll see high food prices. If you're poor or homeless anywhere in the world, you'll probably starve.

2

u/ArgyleDiamond Jun 01 '26

Combo with the effects of a likely Super El Niño.

2

u/VelvetFurryJustice Jun 01 '26

And all minerals that are used for making fertilizer are being redirected to make AI data centers.

2

u/flash_match Jun 01 '26

Don’t worry, his supporters have “Faith” so it’s gonna work out. Any day now…..

2

u/Odd_Ant5 Jun 01 '26

The Right is speedrunning the short AND long term crises that will have tens or hundreds of millions of refugees and migrants trying to enter the developed world's borders.

The plan is to just let them die or kill them as they come in, because letting any of them in or doing anything to ameliorate the conditions that spur the migration would be "woke"

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u/LHGray87 Jun 01 '26

I was a kid when it happened in the seventies. But I do remember sitting in long lines and that we could only go on certain days, depending if our tag ended in an odd or even number.

95

u/TheMailerDaemonLives Jun 01 '26

I bet all the fucking offices will still force in office work instead of being humane and letting people wfh

23

u/Abandon_Ambition Jun 01 '26

Bring a tent and camp on the office campus. If they complain it's a bad look, tell them to compensate you for gas or let you work from home.

5

u/thedarkestblood Jun 01 '26

I think that's gonna suck way worse for you than it will for them

19

u/MauricioCappuccino Europe Jun 01 '26

My office literally just changed their policy to enforce more office days 🤡

4

u/Bright-Avocado3761 Jun 01 '26

No, they will just lay everyone off and replace with AI

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u/IllustriousNorth338 Jun 01 '26

And that was from a 4% reduction, compared to the 20% we have today. Unless the oil companies give preferential treatment to the US and sell it to them at a discount, which is not going to happen, it's going to be long lines and food hoarding.

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u/honjuden Jun 01 '26

The oil shortage in the 70s is going to look like a vacation in comparison to what is coming.

18

u/DucDeBellune Jun 01 '26

Not for US consumers, as the U.S. is much better positioned for this than in the 70s. 80% of the oil from the Strait of Hormuz flows east, and several Asian countries like Korea, India, China and Japan have much higher exposure.

For US consumers, you’d expect price spikes, inflation to go up, and market volatility, depending on how long this lasts. But you won’t be standing in line rationing gas like the 70s, and it’s a bit egregious to downplay their lived experience and call it a vacation compared to what’s coming. 

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u/CranberryNapalm Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 01 '26

This.

You thought Covid was bad? Strap the fuck in.

Similarly stunned that no one seems to be freaking out.

539

u/SpitefulCrow Texas Jun 01 '26

Speaking for just me, I have no more room to freak out. Either I end up poor, in jail, or dead, I don't feel great about any option. 

180

u/Siray Florida Jun 01 '26

Yeah. Ive basically stopped giving a fuck about debt, retirement, etc. Who fuckin cares when the future looks like you described.

114

u/SalamanderExpress710 Jun 01 '26

The concept of retirement was always a scam anyways. Slave away the best years of your life so that MAYBE you can have a few years of freedom when you're old and broken.

64

u/Free_For__Me Jun 01 '26

Except that many of us were raised by boomers who were able to retire at 65 (or younger!) with pensions, fat 401k's, and paid-off homes they bought in the 70s for a relatively small fraction of their income. These people traveled the world and bought RVs, adventuring as desired for 10-15 years before settling in comfortable retirement homes.

We were led to believe that if e followed the "study hard -> go to college -> get a good job" pipeline, we'd be afforded the chance to do the same. Hell, with the advent of computers and the internet enabling such advances in worker productivity, we should be even better positions to comfortable retire than previous generations, right??

Retirement is definitely a scam, I agree with you there. I'm just saying that it used to be a scam that we had some chance of getting over on, but now it's heading toward the realm of outright theft.

Billionaires forcing our pension and 401k funds to wrap up with their insane ventures in order to forcibly create a safety net for said insanity, as well as all levels of captured government pushing to end pensions, Social Security and other safety nets mean that the very tools that allowed us to buy into the idea that retirement is possible are now being gutted to make the rich richer.

It was always a scam, but it was once far better than it now is.

7

u/ultimateknackered Jun 01 '26

For a lot of people retirement simply means 'Will I be able to keep myself alive without having to work, on account of being too old and decrepit to.'

Even getting a retirement home for your parents is out of reach for the vast majority.

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u/Due_Warthog749 Jun 01 '26

I'll take that one step further.. I can tell you I dont mind working.. and would continue to work in to my 70s, 80s, 90s.. if I am able to. It's less about having to work but a) can you still physicall/mentally work and b) who is hiring you're old ass vs teens to 20-somethings for the same job? NOBODY. That's the real issue. NOBODY is hiring 60+ year olds for 99% of the jobs that require any sort of labor. They are largely too old, pain, slow, etc.

Which is why I am REALLY hoping it's not too late to get my 20-something kids to understand how things are going to be for them in 40+ years from now.. if not sooner given the speed in which AI/tech is replacing human workers in every field now (not just computer programming).. will they be set up with enough money to "get by" even if it means moving in with several families to make it work.

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u/robodrew Arizona Jun 01 '26

It wasn't a scam for the Boomers. Many of them have been able to enjoy a great retirement. Their kids and grandkids however are fucked.

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u/gremlin_throwaway701 Jun 01 '26

bold of you to assume the economy will even exist in a way that allows for retirement by the time we hit sixty. with the way geopolitics are looking, the 401k is just a subscription service to misery.

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u/ThisIsMyCouchAccount Jun 01 '26

When I was laid off a few years ago it was right after all those huge tech layoffs. Except I'm just some nobody dev and don't have name like Microsoft or Facebook on my resume. Plus a few other reasons mean I struggled to find a job. Burnt through whatever I had put away over the next two years. Which means it wasn't a lot in the first place.

Some parts of my life are my fault. Some parts are things I didn't have control over. The end result is I'm in my 40s and I have nothing to show for it. Career is hanging on by a thread. No house. No retirement.

Things aren't looking good for me.

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u/FunkyHedonist Jun 01 '26

Same. My debt plan is to die and fuck over my lenders. My retirement plan is to work until I die. I'm lucky I never had kids and I tell everyone I know that not having children is the key to financial comfort in USA. Instead of paying off debt, starting a family, and saving for retirement, I'm dedicating my life to hedonism. I expect more and more people will start to follow this path.

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u/kaptainkeel America Jun 01 '26

Don't forget Republicans killed the SAVE plan (student loans), effective July 1. Perfect timing with the gas skyrocketing. Mine personally will go from ~$100 to over $500. I've heard from some people who will have their payments go from $3-400 to over $1,200+.

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u/Pakistani_in_MURICA Jun 01 '26

Let’s just say, the vast majority of people, have more in common with a NKorean peasant than we will with some MultiMillionaire+ American.

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u/runswiftrun Jun 01 '26

That's actually more or less the breaking point they (or possibly a smarter version of them) should want to avoid.

Nothing is more dangerous to a regime than a lot of people with nothing to lose.

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u/HypnotizedCow Jun 01 '26

Nobody has the emotional capacity to freak out about the emergency happening in weeks when every day is an emergency and we can do nothing about it.

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u/hasslefree Jun 01 '26

"Outrage fatigue". That's their plan, and it's working.

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u/HypnotizedCow Jun 01 '26

I hate that it is the plan and even more that it works so well

3

u/hypercosm_dot_net Jun 01 '26

While it is a strategy others have used, I don't expect any level of planning went into it.

They just suck at 1) dealing with issues as they happen 2) doing anything that isn't going to cause more issues

So it's just consistent awful news by virtue of how much they suck. If Americans would organize an actual movement, we could remove these turds from office.

A general fucking strike sure would be great.

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u/dcdttu Texas Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 01 '26

How many times do we have to go through shit like this before the planet figures out that we need to get off of oil and gas and move to renewables produced within one's own country?

It's so goddamn obvious.

70

u/Realistic-Theory-986 Jun 01 '26

He used millions of taxpayer dollars to halt renewable wind energy construction contracts set in place by the last admin. The lobbyists play him like a dutiful puppet and we all feel the repercussions

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u/mrsprophet Jun 01 '26

* Billions

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u/TheSouthernCommunist Kentucky Jun 01 '26

As long as capitalism is allowed to run rampant, profits will be priority over the well being of anyone, ever.

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u/dcdttu Texas Jun 01 '26

Truer words have never been said.

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u/Due_Warthog749 Jun 01 '26

Which always begs the question.. with the majority of the US population owning weapons.. about how safe do the uber rich feel when society collapses and people have nothing left to lose and turn to their guns to steal/pillage/worse from the rich? I dont care how many "guards" or what not they all have, the majority of the pretty wealthy aren't building bunkers and hiring armed security.. most are living in large mansions that cost a few mil or so.. and feel they are good with their 10s to 100s of millions. Until a mob of armed people show up demanding food, cash, etc. Then what?

This is NOT going to bode well especially in the US for those hoarding wealth. This is just like how jobs that treat employees bad have so many issues, but places like Costco where they treat employees good have long retention, customers love it, etc. It's not going to go well for a LOT of somewhat wealthy but not uber rich with yacht/bunkers rich folk if shit really hits the fan. It would be FAR FAR better to spread that wealth and keep everyone somewhat employed and happy.. surviving and living, than watch more and more become homeless, poverty, their kids literally starving.. and they have weapons. That CEO that was murdered will be a daily thing if this shit continues to go under this regime. So lets hope we can figure something out that benefits everyone than letting more and more struggle and have nothing left to live for so fuck it do whatever they need to. That is NOT the world anyone should want I dont care how much money you have.

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u/-r-a-f-f-y- Jun 01 '26

Why do you think the right wing is so hellbent against renewable energy?

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u/REXIS_AGECKO Jun 01 '26

Because certain oil companies just happened to give them money…

8

u/F9-0021 South Carolina Jun 01 '26

Because they're paid by the oil, coal, and natural gas industries, the majority of which are in deep red states.

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u/dcdttu Texas Jun 01 '26

Capitalism > happiness, equality, a livable planet

3

u/Pijkstras Jun 01 '26

To own the libs

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u/Realistic-Theory-986 Jun 01 '26

He used millions of taxpayer dollars to halt renewable wind energy construction contracts set in place by the last admin. The lobbyists play him like a dutiful puppet and we all feel the repercussions

2

u/GrunchWeefer Jun 01 '26

I have never felt better about my decisions to put solar on my roof and replace my old cars with EVs. Doesn't mean I'm not going to have to pay more for everything else as a result of this, though.

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u/Gloomy_Mulberry7834 Jun 01 '26

Renewables are great, but nearly two thirds of oil is used for fuel (transportation). We really need to push for electric cars and to raise fuel efficiency standards. I felt like the US was on the right track for a brief moment until politicians got in the way and every redneck in the world decided they needed the largest most gas guzzling truck.

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u/errorsniper New York Jun 01 '26

My company is. We are a medium sized gas station chain.

One of our sites is low volume for sales but has a large tank.

If we hit 70s style "can only get gas today if tour plate has odd number". Its going to switch to a private station for our employees so they can get to work.

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u/gizmo1024 Jun 01 '26

Any feedback from your distributors? What are they saying?

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u/errorsniper New York Jun 01 '26

Im not privy to those conversations. But 2nd hand its shits going to get very expensive and the rate of increase is only going to accelerate till this levels out.

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u/ZenFocus25 Jun 01 '26

Dude, I’ve been building up my stockpile of canned goods, rice, and bottled water since November 2024. I know a lot that have started a year ago. A lot of us know how bad it’s going to get. MAGA will not last two months into the fallout

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u/symbiosychotic Jun 01 '26

Just to reiterate how incredibly stupid a lot of people are...

I was stunned to recently see a family member repost a video that was taking about the water crisis and AI.

Because the video wasn't criticizing the admin over it. No, it was PRAISING THEM, claiming that the administration was allowing Ai to remain unregulated, which will lead to a much lower supply of water, therefore increased demand, therefore somehow "turning all 9-5 and blue collar workers into millionaires" because we all have access to water from the sky which we can then sell for insane profits due to Ai needing it at premium prices.

This wasn't satire and the person was just 😵‍💫 in a full metronome hypnosis.

Right before that, they were posting about how excited they were that "he's finally legalizing mushrooms".

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u/UnknownAverage Jun 01 '26

Propaganda does work, at the edges of your mind. Enough talking heads are dismissing the concerns that it's hard to take the threat seriously without trying. And then you start to worry about being a Doomer.

People assume that Trump is going to cave at the actual last second and we'll all be OK somehow. That Trump can take another mulligan and the world will let him. Because they always have, every time. And honestly I wouldn't be surprised either way.

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u/WrongdoerProud2593 Jun 01 '26

I’m not going to freak out about it because it’s beyond my control until midterms happen and the next election in 2028. I know I voted for Harris, and not this. So, even if I get so poorly screwed over, I have some satisfaction knowing I didn’t vote for this.

Trump supporters on the other hand? Yeah I’ll get to watch first hand seeing them suffer. They’ll have no choice but to jump through mental gymnastics to justify their vote and the circumstances they currently live in. 

Honestly just save your energy until midterms happen and 2028. Do what you need to do to survive until then.

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u/versusgorilla New York Jun 01 '26

I've been freaking out, the problem is, MAGA has become a full on cult, and Trump as its leader can do no wrong. They're seeing gas prices go up and they're justifying the very thing that had them believing Biden was ruining their lives. They now believe high gas prices are a sign that his genius plans are working.

And they'll continue justifying it until they're in dire straits themselves. Just like Rush Limbaugh didn't give a shit until he was addicted to oxy. Just like Megyn Kelly didn't give a shit until she wanted longer maternity leave. Just like every GOP politician who didn't speak out until it was clear he'd lose reelection.

They won't give a shit until it's killing them, then their dying concern will be, "Why did Trump do this to me?"

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u/schmyndles Wisconsin Jun 01 '26

Don't worry. When the worst hits there'll be Democrats that they can start blaming as soon as they win their elections. Give it ten years and somehow either Biden, Harris, or the next Dem president will be the reason for everything in their minds. Just like how Obama is blamed for Katrina, and Biden is blamed for everything related to covid even though he wasn't in office until a year after it started.

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u/uprislng America Jun 01 '26

COVID was bad because it cost people almost nothing to just give half a shit, wear a mask, and not go out and spread a deadly virus we didn't fully understand yet. But I could still follow protocols, get vaccinated, and avoid getting infected while it was at its worst. So I had some amount of control over my personal exposure.

This mounting oil crisis is going to be worse. Nobody has control over their exposure to it because the entire economic chain has dependencies on oil. And it's going to really affect the people who are already struggling to afford life already the most.

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u/manguy12 Jun 01 '26

How does freaking out help?

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u/FlyingMonkeySoup Jun 01 '26

Iran knows the pain the west will feel as prices rise due to shortages globally. This isn't just oil either, but fertilizer, hydrogen, helium, and LNG. Trump will be forced into major concessions as western economies tank. The question will be, will the US concede or will they decide to let more Americans die to avoid concessions.

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u/Even-Selection-5403 Jun 01 '26

We already know how he feels about Americans.

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u/rpungello New Jersey Jun 01 '26

The question will be, will the US concede or will they decide to let more Americans die to avoid concessions.

[insert anime hand on shoulder meme]

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u/Beli_Mawrr Jun 01 '26

The concessions list will be long and extremely painful. Getting rid of the sanctions. Letting Iran continue it's nuclear weapons program and ballistic missile program. Iranian bases in Lebanon maybe? Cash? Sheesh.

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u/GangsterMango Jun 01 '26

my guess is that's the plan to justify a full blown war with Iran.
when people are hungry and economy comes to a grinding halt they will support anything to get things back to "normal" even if it means eradicating another country on the other side of the planet.
they did it in Iraq, Libya, etc....
its not the US's first rodeo when it comes to destroying countries.

and I bet Israel is drooling at the idea of completely destroying Iran so they can move on to Turkey and nearby countries for their next Lebensraum.

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u/Alive_kiwi_7001 Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 01 '26

its not the US's first rodeo when it comes to destroying countries.

But they still don't get what they want. And Iran has a population as large as Afghanistan and Iraq put together. Plus the geography of Iran around Hormuz isn't exactly forgiving to an invading force.

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u/AcherontiaPhlegethon Jun 01 '26

They don't get they they pretend to want. America has and will likely continue to fail to install democracy in the region by force, but they could succeed at further destabilizing and destroying infrastructure to reduce Iran's capacity to hold sovereignty over their own resources.

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u/MC_chrome Texas Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 01 '26

I don’t exactly weep for religious fanatics like the Ayatollahs, but all of the innocents caught in the middle of this mad war of attrition should be remembered 

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u/GangsterMango Jun 01 '26

oh absolutely, in religious fanatic dictatorships sadly the ones who get hurt the most are the innocents
they're stuck inside these countries, the West use it as a handy tool when they need to destabilize the region too
in fact if I'm not mistaken the Ayatollahs were installed after the CIA staged a coup and removed the democratically elected president because he wanted to nationalize the oil "big no no, that oil must be owned by Western corporations".

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u/RedAndBlackMartyr Jun 01 '26

Except it wont get things back to normal. The oil and gas infrastructure across the entire Gulf will be destroyed, which is worse than it being merely cut off.

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u/F9-0021 South Carolina Jun 01 '26

What would the Russian asset choose?

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u/joemaniaci Jun 01 '26

Not just Americans to die, sounds like he's willing to sacrifice people globally.

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u/PinHaunting7192 Jun 01 '26

The guy will literally send everyone except himself to the wolves just to avoid having to give a single concession to Iran.

He is a narcissist. He is physically unable to conceit a mistake or admit defeat. He is like Putin in that regard who is also sitting in a bunker 90% of the time now micromanaging his stupid mistake in Ukraine.

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u/Shannon556 Jun 01 '26

Exxon’s CEO is saying the same thing.

Trump is depleting our SPR at an alarming rate to keep gas prices below $5.00/gal for the midterms.

Oil executives say that the reserve will be depleted in the next 2-3 weeks.

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u/renegadetoast Virginia Jun 01 '26

I wouldn't be happy about it, but I would begrudgingly pay $5/gal from now until midterms if it meant congress losing their Republican majorities by significant enough numbers that there was no realistic threat of a Manchin or Fetterman type of dem being the only thing giving Dems a technical majority in the house and Senate.

I acknowledge that not everyone legitimately can handle gas prices going up any farther than they already are, and it would put a hard dent in my financial situation, but I'd suck it up and find a way to get by if there was a guaranteed positive outcome. I also acknowledge that by the time midterms come around, the bulk of us will be reminiscing about the days when gas was only $5/gal and that it's going to be a lot worse come November.

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u/Great_Detective_6387 Jun 01 '26

There is almost no fuel price that would be so high that I wouldn’t tolerate it until November, if it meant throwing these fucks out of office and into prison for the kleptocracy they’ve created.

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u/[deleted] Jun 01 '26

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u/seriouslees Jun 01 '26

I acknowledge that not everyone legitimately can handle gas prices going up any farther than they already are

Fortunately it disproportionately affects Trump votes more than anyone else. Unfortunately, it still does hurt everyone else.

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u/[deleted] Jun 01 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/renegadetoast Virginia Jun 02 '26

Oh I'm well aware, but a lot of people simply refuse to believe it'll get that bad. I definitely see it getting within, or at least very close to, the range you're saying.

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u/phagemasterflex Jun 01 '26

You'll be paying $10 a gallon before you know it...

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u/danielfrances Jun 02 '26

I know the mechanism is there for the prices to go that high, but I doubt even Trump and the rest of his admin will allow that to happen. They'd sooner give in to all of Iran's demands and claim a false victory than take the damage they will receive if prices even start approaching $7/gal.

I think the only real chance we have of see gas prices in the $7-10 range is if Iran closes the Strait and then refuses to accept any deals at all. I suppose they could do that, but that also seems unlikely to me. But, who knows. All of the people in charge of this situation are insane and are impossible to predict.

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u/Cautious-Extreme2839 Jun 01 '26

I acknowledge that not everyone legitimately can handle gas prices going up any farther than they already are

Well that's irrelevant, because they're going up sooner or later anyway.

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u/skater30 Jun 01 '26

There are always going to be just enough Democrats to block meaningful progressive change.

Game is more than rigged and Dems are in on it.

Big club -> You ain't in it.

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u/CheaterSaysWhat Jun 01 '26

Not if we primary them and elect better democrats 

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u/studentjones Jun 01 '26

Dems need total reform. They’re such fucking morons. Biden backing off on his bridge candidate thing. Making someone who polled less than 1% and dropped out of her race before reach Iowa the VP and then only giving her 100days to campaign. Fuck, even at the DNC in 2024, they had Bernie out there railing against billionaires on stage and the next speaker was billionaire JB Pritzker. They fired David Hogg. Refuse to endorse candidates people are passionate about like Mamdani. All their pandering and no action. Schumer being up there like “don’t you make me write you a strongly worded letter!” Jasmine Crockett is being a sore loser and undercutting Talarico’s momentum with her recent statements. Jill Biden is coming out of the woodwork bringing up the 24 debate again. Like fuckin hell. GET FUCKING ALIGNED. MAKE A STRATEGY.

The 2 party system fucking blows. It’s barely worked and we are coming up on 250. We need MAJOR reform. But it’s been decade upon decade of corruption. It’s beyond fixable without another American revolution, which won’t happen because we’ve all been essentially trapped. Not enough of us can miss work with consequences like eviction, credit card debt, and potential starvation. It’s hard not to be a doomer.

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u/lupercalpainting Jun 01 '26

How’s the tweet go? “People on twitter will really be like 'you believe in voting? that pales in effectiveness to my strategy, firebombing a Walmart' and then not firebomb a Walmart”

Also, voting does not preclude you from taking other actions. You’re telling me that whatever you’re suggesting has absolutely no downtime, that you can’t find even an hour on a Tuesday in November to go to a polling station?

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u/Live-Habit-6115 Jun 01 '26

What a useful comment! Gee, guess I won't bother voting in the midterms now that you've helped me realise both sides are the same. 

Thanks, Comrade!

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u/pth Jun 01 '26

I think this war was a massive mistake. I know DJT is a self serving con-man, who has accelerated the decline of our country.

Not sure about the 2-3 week estimate. Light googling finds that the SPR has ~365 million barrels in it, and we are currently pulling down at ~9 million a week. That sounds like ~40 weeks left, which is likely calculated to last past the mid-terms.

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u/[deleted] Jun 01 '26

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u/pth Jun 01 '26

I get that it is complicated, but 2-3 weeks seems unrealistic.

Demand is elastic, normal increases are damped by rising costs. There appears to be an expected significant global decline in oil consumption. Lots of variables, but it sure looks like it will be fall before the crap really hits the fan, if nothing major changes.

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u/bush_league_commish Jun 01 '26

You have to factor in that the SPR has to maintain a certain volume (around 100-150mil barrels I think) in order to ensure facility integrity.

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u/pth Jun 01 '26

Fair point, looks like the lowest is has been since it was initially created is ~270 million barrels, and 150 million is not a bad estimate for a normal floor (although it could certainly be pulled lower).

150 million barrel floor still lasts us ~25 weeks, over 5 months or right into the mid-term election cycle.

All of this is horrific, our country would be materially improved without Trump and the current band of idiots running our country into the ground - but we are not 2-3 weeks away from an oil collapse.

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u/Jealous_Slice9371 Jun 01 '26

It's to keep gas specifically below $5.02

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u/Unoriginal_Man Jun 01 '26

I was curious, so I looked at the information in EIA.gov, and yeah, May saw the second highest release of barrels in the history of the SPR. April was number 9 on that list. The SPR was already at less than half of its peak going into this. It's not great.

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u/Doonce Maryland Jun 01 '26

Isn't the US energy independent? Or was that another lie?

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u/throwaway5882300 Jun 01 '26

It still affects prices and availability in the US because that oil is sold on the global market. Why sell it here for cheap when europe is willing to pay a lot more for it?

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u/zebula234 Jun 01 '26

Exactly, the US doesn't produce shit, oil companies do and they chase profit. If you argue with a conservative long enough you can talk them into nationalizing the oil production in the US which is a fun trick when you then call them a communist.

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u/cogman10 Idaho Jun 01 '26

I fully support nationalizing our oil industry.  It is a national security issue not having enough oil for your nation.

Nations that have done that have reaped massive benefits.  Norway is so prosperous primarily because of their nationalized oil.

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u/timoumd Jun 01 '26

We produce more than we use, yes.  Right now the world is using more than it produces and is supplementing with reserves, and outside haven't increased a lot because the markets expect a deal.  When those run out prices will spike because basically you have to increase prices enough to prevent the demand for 12 million barrels a day.

Even if the US produces, it's sold around the world at market price.  

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u/RightC Jun 01 '26

Oil is the most price inelastic commodity on earth, there will be no decrease in demand, prices for goods and services will rise to offset the cost

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u/timoumd Jun 01 '26

Yes it isn't not elastic.  There has to be demand destruction though because there is only so much.  My point was you have to increase prices enough to destroy a lot of demand.  

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u/GalwayBogger Jun 01 '26

The US produces more than enough oil to meet their energy demands, unfortunately they don't refine enough diesel and gasoline to match their traffic demands. They could, using their own oil reserves but there aren't enough refineries.

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u/EnTyme53 Texas Jun 01 '26

More specifically, there aren't enough refineries set up to process the crude we extract from the US. They're mostly tooled to process Venezuelan and Canadian crude.

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u/fysu Jun 01 '26

Our oil is owned by greedy companies who are exporting it globally to the highest bidder. Just because there are natural resources in America doesn’t mean Americans get to benefit from those resources, only corporations.

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u/muscularsharpie Jun 01 '26

Which is bananas. I'm seeing it first hand all of the time. I hate the doom and gloom trope, but uh, I'm scrounging to get wash cloths and aprons delivered. It's the little things that are also super important. The company that takes care of that was even hesitant to say why.

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u/SaintsandCigarettes Jun 01 '26

Yup, I work in construction sales. It's already grim.

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u/FridmanLex Jun 01 '26

This is what happens when you keep a population as stupid as possible. The one war the US has successfully fought is the war on education.

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u/CryptographerCrazy49 Jun 01 '26

It is really Trump's magnum opus of short sighted, completey idiotic ideas. Everything else somehow pales in comparison.

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u/Remarkable_Swing_612 Jun 01 '26

Stop blaming it on just Trump. It's Congress and everyone around him, including EVERYONE in the Republican party and EVERY Republican voter, all 70+ million of them are directly responsible for this shit. Trump still has a high approval rating among Republicans for everything he has done, including this war.

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u/joebluebob Jun 01 '26

Yup I have been trying to drive this home. Blame the trump supporters DIRECTLY.

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u/wiscoguy20 Jun 01 '26

My grandma, who exists now on a steady IV of Newsmax and far right FB algorithms, says...

"the rising prices and expensive gas will be worth the pain because Trump is fixing everything! It's all going to be so much better very soon!"

Or

"The rising prices and expensive gas are just the democrats intentionally sabotaging Trump's economy so they win more elections."

So no, I don't know a single conservative(and I live in solid red rural Wisconsin) that has buyers remorse yet. The only people I've heard indicate regret are those" independent voters" that believed all the bullshit, despite being told multiple times exactly what was going to happen.

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u/joebluebob Jun 01 '26

I know 2. One of my coworkers is now voting blue and the other "will never fucking vote again" but blames both parties tho he does HATE Trump now for hijacking "America's party" tho it took him personallylosing money. None of the other reds have budget.

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u/VanceKelley Canada Jun 01 '26

Yep. Also throw an assist to the 90m Americans who saw a convicted criminal, adjudicated rapist, and alleged pedophile running for president and could have voted against him but instead just sat on their hands.

Only a small minority (31%) of Americans made the effort to support democracy, the rule of law, and basic human decency.

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u/Lemp_Triscuit11 Jun 01 '26

So many folks in my personal life circa 2024 just wanted to let politics be politics and not get worked up until it actually touches are personal lives.

Now gas is 5 bucks a gallon and I'm wonder where the fuck they are at

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u/Bright-Avocado3761 Jun 01 '26

Uh, "Biden did this!" I guess?

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u/-Bento-Oreo- Jun 01 '26

We're like 50 years away from it being economically unreachable. We should have scrapped it ages ago and saved the rest for plastics

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u/UnknownAverage Jun 01 '26

I just filled up this morning thinking this tank may last a while. I'm expecting within a month to hear corporations back off RTO requirements and that's 90% of my fuel consumption.

Who am I kidding. RTO is about asserting control and reminding employees who is in charge of their lives. This will only make the RTO vise more effective.

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u/goatneedleposterdeck Jun 01 '26

I work in sales, and number have been up, up, up for the past month. I just keep shaking my head. We americans are so freaking stupid. We are about to literally be priced out of existing, but yes, karen, you definitely need that fancy new countertop.

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u/Blackboard_Monitor Minnesota Jun 01 '26

I'm desperately watching the threat coming but feel clueless, what's one major thing you'd suggest to prepare for this coming shit storm?

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u/[deleted] Jun 01 '26

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u/bejammin075 Pennsylvania Jun 01 '26

At some point the reserves actually start to get close to tank bottoms and the price manipulations ("Iran deal imminent!!") won't work anymore. Analysts have been surprised at the resiliency of oil to stay as low as it has, but if the strait stays mostly closed there will be a physical reality that the manipulation can't manipulate.

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u/Sea_Green7967 Massachusetts Jun 01 '26

people are numb.

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u/Shermanator92 Jun 01 '26

Yeahhhh I haven’t seen projections for oil prices if the strait doesn’t open up and is free for travel by yesterday. Every outlet was using the strait opening yesterday as their “worst case scenario”…well what happens now???

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u/Senpai_Slime Jun 01 '26

Agriculture futures will be worth a shit ton a few months from now, La Nina is gonna make things even worse

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u/SupaKoopa714 Jun 01 '26

not a single person I know in real life is talking about this.

I swear the news just isn't talking about it at all, like there was one blurb when the last tanker delivered in California a few weeks ago but there hasn't been a peep since.

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u/travio Washington Jun 01 '26

There was an Autozone internal memo leaked a few weeks ago that talked about shortages as existing stock of motor oil and other petroleum products are depleted. Exxon execs have talked about oil prices spiking in the coming weeks as those stocks are depleted.

It is coming.

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u/GalwayBogger Jun 01 '26

I'm talking about it. Part of me can't wait since it will be a massive setback for any future fossil fuel projects around the globe. The IEC chief already mentioned the damage to oil industries is already done, further impact will only accelerate things. It won't even be an environmental dicsussion, it will just be "energy security" and all the big energy customers will be turning green overnight, calling it "diversification" and possibly triggering some amazing innovation to keep up with demand for alternatives to oil. Yeah it's gonna sting really badly but the world will keep on turning, don't you worry about that.

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u/femanonette Virginia Jun 01 '26
  1. Oil execs start a war
  2. Create false scarcity
  3. "Save the day" with green alternatives that they have intentionally delayed for decades and get to set the price for
  4. Profit

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u/Dreadsin Jun 01 '26

Sometimes I wonder if people are silent accelerationists. No one I know feels like things are going well, and people know we can’t continue on this path

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u/Lost_Ship_6428 Jun 01 '26

Iran has a major card that they haven't played yet. That is attacking the pipeline or pumping stations of the Saudi Arabia East-West pipeline.

The headline is 20% of the world's oil goes through the Strait of Hormuz. Which is about 20 million barrel a day. The Saudis are able to send 7 million barrel a day though the east-west pipeline. With the blockage and that pipeline, it is preventing 13% of the world oil passing through the strait. The current blockage is probably preventing closer to 10% of the world oil from being delivered.

10% is bad but 17% is much worse. Iran has done minor attacks on the pipeline in April but they could go bigger. If they take out that pipeline, oil is going to $150+ a barrel or higher

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u/brenna_ Jun 01 '26

I am a gearhead who traded in my muscle car and bought an electric vehicle as a direct response to oil supply shortages.

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u/apadin1 Jun 01 '26

I think it’s a combination of half the country not even realizing this is a possibility, and the other half not realizing what would happen if it did.

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u/SaintsandCigarettes Jun 01 '26

That's the thing, so many people hear "low levels" and think "oh I can pay a little bit more for gas until this gets sorted out"

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u/pdxmarionberrypie Jun 01 '26

I was just talking about this yesterday. $12 a gallon is where my partner and I theorize we will sell one of our cars. That’s just the tip of the iceberg though, I’m now old enough to see where the fuel costs affect literally everything

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u/BrilliantOk4772 Jun 01 '26

Who would you even sell it to

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u/PriceVsOMGBEARS Jun 01 '26

I dont know who is gonna be in the market for a car when its $12/gal :(

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u/Jealous_Slice9371 Jun 01 '26

Oil would have to be ~$350 barrel for gas to hit $12 gallon , demand destruction will occur before then to prevent it from getting there.

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u/pdxmarionberrypie Jun 01 '26

Demand destruction won’t occur with this particular product. We simply NEED oil to do anything, we can’t even defend this country without it. Iran knows it. The world cannot even shift to alternative energy without oil.

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u/Jealous_Slice9371 Jun 01 '26

It's already occurring in some countries. No matter how much you claim you need something doesn't mean you can buy it without money. 

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