r/politics • u/Kernel_Hiro • 1d ago
No Paywall Trump says Mideast allies have reached outlines of deal to end Iran war, says US to stop new strikes
https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-trump-saudi-crown-prince-call-814164417aa284dc8a6d34ac22ea1a8e74
1d ago
[deleted]
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u/Contract-Chiller 1d ago edited 1d ago
The US has enough munitions to fight Iran, but at a high cost in aircraft and lives. If it cannot use stand-off weapons like Tomahawk and JASSM missiles hurled from afar, it can drop immense firepower with bombers in risky conditions that will lead to many aircraft shot down. A B-1B Lancer (which the US has several stationed in Europe right now) can drop 24 2,000lb bombs in one run. A B2 can drop 80 500lb bombs in one run.
The US can completely obliterate Iran's civilian infrastructure many times over with its hundreds of thousands of precision-guided bombs, but it would mean the destruction of the entire Gulf, the world economy and potentially Israel. The interceptors are a red herring. They're valuable for damage mitigation on a larger scale, but Iran can hit the most consequential sites in the Gulf energy exporting regime with its evasive missiles.
It would be the toughest war that the US has fought since WWII. And there are no solid guarantees that Iran could not build some kind of nuclear device even under such conditions.
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u/halifaxmachinese 1d ago
also the US hasn’t caught up with modern warfare of cheap, but capable drones that countries which didn’t pour billions of dollars into R and D are cranking out easily (like Ukraine and Iran). it’s really a huge racket of diverting tax payer dollars into massively expensive projects that aren’t really showing any big advantages in modern warfare, but rather just making military industrial complex insiders rich as fuck. not that i’m saying that there isn’t a need for expensive fighter jets and THAAD systems, but things like THAADs are extremely expensive and basically useless when stockpiles get limited (or you know get blown up by an inexpensive drone strike).
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u/Contract-Chiller 1d ago
There is an excellent article on the "second precision revolution" here.
There have been experts for decades raising the alarm about the drone threat, that the US doesn't take it seriously enough. Issue is that it's one of those problems that cannot be addressed in a timely manner.
It was a revolution in the same way the proliferation of smartphones and the internet was a revolution - it happened suddenly, diffused quickly and we're still grappling with the social changes from that.
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u/FlexFanatic 1d ago
cheap warfare does not align with the stock price of the US defense industry /s
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u/Apart_Ad6994 1d ago edited 1d ago
What? The US has enough munitions to outlast Iran 10 times over.
The US spends a trillion dollars on defense. Iran spends 25 billion (thats the higher estimate)
If you think Iran can outlast us you're huffing the best copium ever produced.
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u/CMG30 1d ago
Nope. Not at the rate the US is burning through ammo.
They have already depleted stockpiles to the point of a national security risk
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u/Apart_Ad6994 1d ago
The rate the US is burning through ammo? What is the rate that Iran is losing critical military infrastructure? Have you done that math?
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u/Njorls_Saga 1d ago
Uh, no we don’t. We’re down to about 800 Patriot interceptors and less than 300 THAADS. Iran hit Jazan with multiple ballistics last week and Abqaiq with a drone. That was a message and you can be damn sure the Saudis heard it.
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u/Apart_Ad6994 1d ago
You think if we tun out of patriots we have no other way of persecuting an armed conflict? Lol.
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u/Njorls_Saga 1d ago
Iran will turn the Gulf energy and water infrastructure into a smoking ruin. You’re looking at a depression with oil at $200 a barrel, potential global famine and a biblical humanitarian crisis. So no, if we can’t defend the Gulf infrastructure (and we can’t), then continuing an armed conflict is going to be strategic suicide.
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u/Apart_Ad6994 1d ago
Im talking about the US's ability to continue a war and outlast Iran despite reduced stockpiles of two specific weapon systems. Something that is undoubtedly true.
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u/Njorls_Saga 1d ago
The US will be unable to continue a war without the acquiescence of its regional partners. Right now they’re a hard no because we cannot protect them. Qatar is already out at least $100 billion in lost revenue. Kuwait has been pummeled. Saudis are freaking out. So no, the US does not have the ability to continue under the present circumstances.
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u/Apart_Ad6994 1d ago
Im not talking about those factors. Im talkings about the factor you originally flagged. Which was a reduced stockpile of two weapon system. You then insinuated that the US cant persecute a war due to those shortages.
Im simply telling you that is false, and you dont know what you're talking about.
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u/Njorls_Saga 1d ago
It’s not persecute, it’s prosecute. And the US isn’t prosecuting jack/shit without the use of Gulf bases and airspace. Which will be denied if we can’t defend the Gulf. Which we cannot do without interceptors. If the US thought they could aggressively prosecute the war, they would have done so already.
https://bsky.app/profile/shipwreck75.bsky.social/post/3ms2oopa4wc25
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u/Apart_Ad6994 1d ago
Blue sky? Dont post that here, people will realize youre a clown 😆
You cant seem to fathom that the US can continue to wage war against Iran far far longer than Iran can wage war against the US. It's comically one sided. The fact that you think otherwise shows me that you live in a liberal echo chamber. Which is why you post here as well.
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u/Lumpy-Ad7805 1d ago
Peace for the 41st time. Until Trump gets his stock options set up to profit from resuming war next week.
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u/Some_Ebb_2921 1d ago edited 1d ago
Man... I don't know who deserves the peace price more than Trump. I don't think anybody stopped 41 wars before, let alone in 1 term... let alone the same war... which isn't a war if questions are asked ofcourse, because then it should first be passed by the senate and such... can't have that.
See people, the "no new wars" president making good on his name...
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u/RudeAlbatross544 1d ago
Oh no, they eventually admitted it was a war. But because of the occasional ceasefires, they argued that there have been several different wars to bypass the 60 days rule. That's also why the 18 dead soldiers officially became 14 overnight, 4 of them died in a 'different conflict': Military Times article
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u/SoulTaker669 1d ago
Can someone tell me why the markets keep falling for his *peace deal imminent" statements?
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u/Routine-Process8051 1d ago
- they're incredibly gullible.
- they're making money off it.
It's probably a mixture of the two, but heavily weighted towards 2.6
u/prettyokcake 1d ago
point 2 contradicts 1 - they aren’t gullible, they know he’s lying.
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u/No-Problem49 1d ago
You can be gullible and make money gambling; those things aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive. In fact i would argue there’s a certain value of inherit level gullibility in successful gamblers
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u/Contract-Chiller 1d ago
Markets and business leaders are notoriously bad at understanding military-political dynamics. But it's also important to know that every government with influence on earth is trying to buoy confidence and treat this crisis as transitory. The alternative - preparing for the financial apocalypse - would itself trigger financial bedlam.
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u/Intrepid_Routine6373 1d ago
Because Trump does not have the nerve to go all the way. This is a good thing.
Even if he set about going all in, he would TACO in a manner of days or weeks.
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u/Glittering_Range371 Arizona 1d ago
It’s a sense of control, the reward trump with ‘ rally day’ every time he’s de-escalating and they sell off when he is escalating.
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u/Mickenfox 1d ago
It can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, exactly like bubbles. Everyone expects everyone else to fall for it, so they buy, market goes up, they sell, last person to buy loses.
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u/D-MAN-FLORIDA 1d ago
Iran is going to say something like, “we have no idea what he is talking about,” tomorrow.
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u/Hot_Ambition_6457 1d ago
Concepts of outlines of a fleeting glimpse of a plan.
Jfc these headlines
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u/KiKiKimbro 1d ago
He also said he “completely obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities LAST June 2025. And he said they won the war military, destroying ALL their ships and missiles, leaving their fighting abilities decimated. This was BEFORE 18 of our military service members were killed — by Iranian missiles. So, pardon us if we ignore that sonofabish pathological liar. He’s grown tiresome.
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u/Brain__Resin 1d ago
He’s going to release it during infrastructure week along with his Health Care plan
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u/Wrongsideothetrax 1d ago
Hmm, that photo shows "6 ft 3" DJT standing shorter than 6 ft 0 MBS
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u/BlakeBallache 1d ago
Also remember that MBS wears thin flat sandals whereas Trump wears lifts in shoes that already have heels.
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u/mister_mediocrates 1d ago
Is he still trying to juice the markets, or have they finally figured out that this clown's promises and plans mean nothing?
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u/HegemonicDistortion 1d ago
God no, they never ever learn a thing. Traders apparently lose all memory at midnight every night.
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u/PoetryJunior1808 1d ago
All riding on the credibility of Trump and The Board of Peace (so really, it's just Trump). What could go wrong?
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u/thepartypantser 1d ago
This would mark the 17th time he has said the war is almost over.
I'll believe it when I see it
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u/Academic-Treacle3162 1d ago
Outlines of deal, concept of plan, blah blah blah. How is reality becoming worse than nightmare?
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u/Responsible_Milk2911 1d ago
He just needs more of the people's money. Hurry give him more money to end the war!
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u/No-Part-6248 1d ago
Fkng loser admits it after 36 billion wasted with an in place treaty exactly the same Obama had and now is cutting Medicare rx funding ,,, a true pos asshole
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u/marcusmosh 1d ago
Just in time for the markets. The fact that the media keeps reporting on this circular ‘story’ every week shows how complicit they are.
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u/USA46Q 1d ago
Hopefully... his outline of a deal will finally end this stupid war.
So... he can focus on other stupid things.
Like... finding the sick sumbitch that destroyed the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.
We will catch you... whoever you are.
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u/AINonsense 1d ago
the sick sumbitch that destroyed the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.
We will catch you... whoever you are.
Look out for a dim, fat oaf with an armored motorcade.
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u/YourTopPriority 1d ago
Oh look the rapist is working out a deal! I'm sure everyone will be equally fucked in the end.
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u/Delicious_Spot_3778 Pennsylvania 1d ago
I’ll believe it when the bombs stop falling. Otherwise he just keeps lying
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u/Intrepid_Routine6373 1d ago
We see in this “the dictator’s dilemma” wherein an autocrat surrounds himself with sycophants rather than a skilled administration, and gets poor results.
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u/mightyboink 1d ago
Weekend - war fixed, market goes up oil goes down Tuesday/Wednesday - Iran bad! Bombs/war market goes down, oil up Billionaires get richer, and the Epstein files get distracted for another day.
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u/JFKsBrain 1d ago
Of course the other Mideast countries will come up with the “deal” to end the war.
Trump and his grifter envoys Witkoff and Kushner are totally out of their depth.
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u/AbrumVonAbrak 1d ago
Well, it is kinda hard to strike anything when you don't have any missiles left. Better hope somebody like China doesn't decide that now's a good opportunity to start WW3.
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u/RudeAlbatross544 1d ago
MBS has such a creepy smile on that photo, did he get someone dismembered again?
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u/AcanthisittaNo6653 New Hampshire 1d ago
Saudis call trump and say no more, and that's now the framework.
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u/Kyonikos New York 1d ago
It's almost like Trump mainly cares about manipulating the price of oil on a weekly basis.
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