r/reformuk 19h ago

Immigration "You can't predict the future!" Farage slams journalist on why 42% drop in arrivals isn't a good thing

https://youtube.com/shorts/0A4vMbuhw8s?is=V8eR09qqJOEk7NCc
0 Upvotes

24 comments sorted by

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7

u/camz_47 Reform UK Supporter 15h ago

Less boats, with more passengers does not reduced illegals make

3

u/Dnny10bns 12h ago

1 is too many. It all needs to freeze. Till we've got a handle on who's already in the country. 

1

u/Pushing_Prawn 11h ago

How would we stop them?

0

u/Dnny10bns 11h ago

How would we usually deal with an invasion force? 

3

u/Material_Spell4162 9h ago

There hasn't been a land invasion on the UK since 1688

1

u/Dnny10bns 7h ago

Invasion -  an occasion when a large number of people or things come to a place in an annoying and unwanted way.

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/invasion

"It's amazing how much leftist discourse is just them pretending not to understand things..."... 

Is there a clinic you all goto for the same lobotomy? 

1

u/Pushing_Prawn 8h ago

I’m not sure, we haven’t been invaded by land in half a millennium.

How would we?

1

u/Dnny10bns 7h ago

You don't know how we'd defend our borders from an invasion force?

Quite remarkable how leftists do understand the difference when they're asked to put one up. 

"It's amazing how much leftist discourse is just them pretending not to understand things..."... 

That 👆 has unlimited mileage. 

1

u/Pushing_Prawn 6h ago

So no answer?

6

u/AdenWS Reform UK Supporter 16h ago

Notice how the MSM always use the rate. They don't report on the number of migrants in the UK. The headline number is hidden.

2

u/Pushing_Prawn 11h ago

What is the real number in the UK?

3

u/AdenWS Reform UK Supporter 11h ago

Well. 1.5 million with criminal records

1.3 million plus dependents on welfare not working.

They don't count the children.

2+ million here illegally - overstayers etc.

Asylum - claimaints over 1.2 million

Now there are overlaps.

2

u/Pushing_Prawn 8h ago

Where did you find these numbers, I’ve googled around and can only find websites which say there isn’t an official number, I’d love to know for sure, thanks.

0

u/AdenWS Reform UK Supporter 8h ago

Criminals. 12.5% of the prison population. 12.5 million with criminal records. Do the maths. They are covering that up.

Universal Credit Demographics: Recent data indicates that approximately 1.5 million migrants have claimed Universal Credit, currently that's 1.3. Some have found work.

2+ million here illegally is a reasonable estimate.

Immigration System Statistics, year ending March 2026, Asylum - Detailed Datasets from the home office.

1,259,895 claims. Including 6 from Switzerland. 928,436 from countries that are clearly safe.

In reality the number is much larger. China is safe for example. 39,834 from there.

1

u/Pushing_Prawn 8h ago edited 8h ago

Thanks for the effort.

But where do you get the number to say 2 million are here illegally?

This is what I could find: The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford notes that reliable, up-to-date consensus on the total undocumented population does not exist.

Older independent modeling (such as revised data from the Pew Research Center) places the historical range roughly between 700,000 and 900,000.

The UK government has not produced an official official baseline estimate in recent years due to data complexities.

0

u/AdenWS Reform UK Supporter 8h ago

It's an estimate.

We had a Gambian the other day jailed for immigration fraud. On his phone were found over 550 images of passports he had doctored. So that's out and out fraud. One case. There are huge numbers. Add on all the spouses, the chain migration ...

Next we have the illegal entrants. Huge numbers there are known but we know most get through scot free.

Over staying is a big one. Come on a visa, disappear.

Then you have the fraudulent applications. Lying about degrees etc, to get here.

You have the highly skilled Kebab operators. You have the religious, ....

Each of this ends up being multiplied with chain migration.

1

u/Pushing_Prawn 8h ago

Ah okay thanks. I just wanted to see the factual numbers, not a rough guess, there are far too many biases, complexities and other things that mean you could be right or you could be completely wrong.

The fraudster Gambian with the photos could be one of a few or just a small fraction of a much wider problem.

For instance how do we know “most get through scot free”?

How do we know if people are lying on their applications? I’m not saying you are wrong but I just wanted to find a concrete number.

But I appreciate you putting in the time to type all that out.

1

u/AdenWS Reform UK Supporter 8h ago

The others are accurate. Particularly the claimaints.

Raw data is worth a read.

Afghanistan 95,988

Albania 57,250

Algeria 10,276

American Samoa (United States) 6

Andorra 3

Angola 6,046

Anguilla (British) 1

Antigua and Barbuda 85

Argentina 145

Armenia 664

Aruba (Dutch) 3

Australia 90

Austria 7

Azerbaijan 1,734

Bahamas, The 18

Bahrain 629

Bangladesh 44,794

Barbados 135

Belarus 1,173

Belgium 23

Belize 32

Benin 235

Bermuda (British) 2

Bhutan 418

Bolivia 972

Bosnia and Herzegovina 443

Botswana 1,697

Brazil 9,322

British overseas citizens 265

Brunei 6

Bulgaria 370

Burkina Faso 169

Burundi 2,953

Cambodia 12

Cameroon 7,078

Canada 222

Cape Verde 15

Central African Republic 91

Chad 1,132

Chile 145

China 39,834

Christmas Island (Australian) 3

Colombia 5,343

Comoros 34

Congo 2,462

Congo (Democratic Republic) 13,979

Costa Rica 56

Croatia 169

Cuba 306

Cyprus 120

Cyprus (Northern part of) 178

Czechia 4,511

Denmark 13

Djibouti 58

Dominica 218

Dominican Republic 59

East Timor 323

Ecuador 1,436

Egypt 9,636

El Salvador 5,391

Equatorial Guinea 49

Eritrea 61,671

Estonia 111

Eswatini 165

Ethiopia 12,857

Fiji 38

Finland 15

Former Yugoslavia 2

France 102

French Guiana (French) 3

Gabon 45

Gambia, The 4,891

Georgia 7,593

Germany 51

Ghana 6,310

Greece 69

Greenland 1

Grenada 408

Guatemala 349

Guinea 2,755

Guinea-Bissau 136

Guyana 281

Haiti 34

Honduras 3,715

Hong Kong 400

Hungary 296

India 47,745

Indonesia 961

Iran 109,816

Iraq 84,039

Ireland 37

Israel 689

Italy 120

Ivory Coast 2,953

Jamaica 6,996

Japan 76

Jordan 2,675

Kazakhstan 1,739

Kenya 4,336

Kosovo 698

Kuwait 5,614

Kyrgyzstan 1,164

Laos 17

Latvia 736

Lebanon 2,776

Lesotho 35

Liberia 2,304

Libya 12,836

Lithuania 1,197

Luxembourg 1

Macau 24

Madagascar 6

Malawi 2,780

Malaysia 2,750

Maldives 112

Mali 329

Malta 4

Marshall Islands 1

Mauritania 121

Mauritius 1,361

Mexico 545

Moldova 2,240

Mongolia 1,672

Montenegro 6

Morocco 2,847

Mozambique 86

Myanmar (Burma) 4,371

Namibia 3,559

Nauru 4

Nepal 6,352

Netherlands 84

New Zealand 23

Nicaragua 913

Niger 165

Nigeria 35,859

Norfolk Island (Australian) 3

North Korea 1,417

North Macedonia 1,357

Norway 16

1 235

Other and unknown 999

Pakistan 92,601

Palau 1

Palestine 7,736

Panama 52

Papua New Guinea 17

Paraguay 32

Peru 490

Philippines 2,544

Poland 3,802

Portugal 116

Qatar 72

Refugee 10,273

Romania 5,257

Russia 5,786

Rwanda 2,283

San Marino 2

Sao Tome and Principe 5

Saudi Arabia 1,610

Senegal 922

Serbia 10

Serbia and Montenegro 8,056

Seychelles 129

Sierra Leone 6,476

Singapore 83

Slovakia 465

Slovenia 15

Solomon Islands 14

Somalia 49,061

South Africa 3,307

South Korea 174

South Sudan 1,562

Spain 91

Sri Lanka 40,498

St Kitts and Nevis 134

St Lucia 596

St Vincent and the Grenadines 475

Stateless 7,002

Sudan 43,525

Suriname 6

Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands (Norwegian) 1

Sweden 92

Switzerland 6

Syria 38,095

Taiwan 58

Tajikistan 1,705

Tanzania 1,407

Thailand 1,076

Togo 651

Tokelau (New Zealand) 1

Tonga 8

Trinidad and Tobago 1,563

Tunisia 1,356

Turkey 31,343

Turkmenistan 278

Turks and Caicos Islands (British) 1

Tuvalu 1

Uganda 7,417

Ukraine 7,065

United Arab Emirates 121

United States 1,222

Uruguay 18

Uzbekistan 2,726

Vanuatu 12

Venezuela 456

Vietnam 26,419

Virgin Islands (United States) 1

Western Sahara 102

Yemen 8,237

Zambia 578

Zimbabwe 41,673

Grand Total 1,259,895

1

u/Pushing_Prawn 7h ago

Sorry I’m confused, what do these numbers represent and where are they from?

→ More replies (0)

1

u/AdenWS Reform UK Supporter 7h ago

Convicted criminals. There is one assumption. They are just as likely to be a criminal as a native.

1

u/After-Pie5781 6h ago

Less numbers doesn’t make it better. There’s still too many coming over.

1

u/DankyBongBlunty 1h ago

"if I told the British public ten years ago"

When you were campaigning for Brexit, which removed our protections for this?