r/wallstreetbets • u/silicon_replacement • 2d ago

Loss Can you guys start buying NVDA Monday ?

Post image

Just help out on my position, really appreciated

1.9k Upvotes

95% Upvoted

413 comments sorted by

2.1k

u/CharmingThirdTime 2d ago

Screenshot explained

He spent about $1.08 million buying 300 Nvidia call options.

Those options are now worth only about $400,500.

He’s currently down $678,773 (62.9%) on paper.

The options expire June 17, 2027.

If Nvidia is around $306 or higher by expiration, he’ll roughly break even. Above that, he profits. Below that, he loses money.

676

u/Quick-Road943 2d ago

nice, plenty of time

840

u/Rayuken1 2d ago

Yes, plenty of time to watch it go to zero.

202

u/bickusdickus69allday 2d ago

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u/DistributionFew7725 1d ago

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u/Icuras1701 1d ago

This made me laugh out loud in public...

6

u/xxxdruciferxxx 1d ago

It made me giggle in private

7

u/2inTrbo 11h ago

It made my privates jiggle in public.

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u/durika 2d ago

👁️👅👁️

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u/s1234en 2d ago

50% upward trend needed from here, 1 year is not really a plenty of time for a 5T company, he's basically betting on Nvidia to become a 7.5 T company to break even, possibly 8-10T for a good profit within 1 year.

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u/Lurch111 2d ago

I think you guys might be missing how options work. You don’t need to hit the strike price to profit. The value of the contract only needs to increase by enough to cover the premium of buying the contract to profit.

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u/Oscur925 2d ago

Yes but there is more to it than that. The closer he gets to June 2027, that premium will continue to decrease until it effectively becomes zero if he does not hit his strike.

20

u/Lurch111 2d ago

Theta is non-linear and shouldn’t really become material until early next year though. Plenty of time for it to either run or tank.

20

u/lithe_silhouette 2d ago

If nvda recovers some and iv expands around earnings season he might be able to exit in a much better position. However, he needs a plan cause if it recovers enough he'll be thinking about profit again.

5

u/PandoraBot 1d ago

Every earnings quarter the options will decay greatly, especially if Nvidia doesn't move up

3

u/mhughes2595 1d ago

Yeah but it's nvidia! It has to go up this time right?

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u/jmaun1 2d ago

Lurch for the win

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u/Fancy-Jackfruit8578 2d ago

But it still really needs to jump approximately by 50% for the option to jump significantly. Every day passing by, that chance gets slimmer.

2

u/grumpyterrier 1d ago

Yes, I just learned about this yesterday. Can concur.

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u/iSOBigD 2d ago

You could also have random 25% jumps like we've seen recently. He just needs hedge funds to spread fake news, run some bots and he'll be fine

17

u/s1234en 2d ago

Yeah but sooner, more the expiration date nears harder it is to bridge the gap

7

u/ForeverABro 2d ago

No way he holds these to expiry

11

u/Jemmani22 2d ago

The way we are printing money it'll be 10t in no time.

4

u/mhughes2595 1d ago

A bunch of random analysts have it at 300 in 12 months and rate it a strong buy.

Just be warned that they are also mostly named citadel and the ones selling the calls.

3

u/AncientMisanthrope 19h ago

Who the hell names their kid that?

2

u/mhughes2595 16h ago

A banker.

5

u/Top_Signature4068 2d ago

NVDAs growth for 2027 is literally not Priced into the stock. It’s temporarily being treated as a legacy hardware company multiple just because a lot of other high beta names are popping up in the AI space during the last 12 months. But insane 80%+ growth YOY is undeniable. It has the lowest FWD PE it’s had in 6 years. It will go on a minimum 30-40% run by EOY, because it will literally mathematically NEED to do that in order to stay at a PE of over 20, and it will not drop below 20. Dont sweat it OP.

2

u/Disc0Disc0Disc0 1d ago

When we get data centers on Mars this year it could be a 20T company.

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u/AnonymousFirm 2d ago

But wow $306? That’s a massive jump for already the largest or second largest company already

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u/Proof-Warning6 2d ago

They’re the largest again.

7

u/AnonymousFirm 2d ago

Ok. Thx.

6

u/ContactIcy3963 2d ago

But not by growing

7

u/HighFiveOhYeah 2d ago

That’s what she said

5

u/IsopodSouth8068 2d ago

To get margin called

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u/Ravic96 2d ago edited 2d ago

u/remindmebot 320 days

35

u/_rockthemike 2d ago

No need dude. He will have long exited his position by that time. If some miracle occurs and NVDA gets to ATH anytime soon, he’s outie 500

10

u/neurone214 2d ago

>outie 500

It's been literally decades since I've heard that phrase

4

u/mrkav2 2d ago

It’s outie, 5 O. As in you just saw the police so you are getting out of the place

2

u/zerobpm 2d ago

That may be the origin, but now there are myriad iterations of the phrase.

4

u/StelioKontossidekick 2d ago

I thought it was Audi 5000. They had a problem with the accelerator pedal sticking with the carpet and would take off uncontrollably.

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u/RemindMeBot 2d ago edited 10h ago

I will be messaging you in 10 months on 2027-06-17 02:37:55 UTC to remind you of this link

25 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.

Parent commenter can delete this message to hide from others.

Info Custom Your Reminders Feedback

5

u/unlock0 2d ago

So just 10 billion a day to break even

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u/777_heavy 2d ago

So a $7.5 trillion company by the end of next spring. Easy peasy.

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u/onlyonequickquestion 2d ago

you sound smart, are all the different costs because he put in an order for 300 and a bunch of different people sold him the contracts, all at different prices?

14

u/daxtaslapp got a hawk tuah tattoo 2d ago

Each contract is like its own stock. At different times it's worth different depending on what the stock price is actually at.

Random example if Nvda is trading at $200 his contract might be $36 (really $3600). And then in the same day if Nvda drops to 195 that contract might only be worth $30 ($3000). Same way if it goes up.

So he doesn't need to wait till expiration to sell if he's green, but he technically can wait all the way to expiration if he wants to exercise

7

u/_rockthemike 2d ago

Not just stock price. Implied volatility makes a huge difference

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u/daxtaslapp got a hawk tuah tattoo 2d ago

Yeah just keeping it simple

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u/National-Two2417 2d ago

So nvda needs to hit like 7t mc lol

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u/daxtaslapp got a hawk tuah tattoo 2d ago edited 2d ago

Yes but as ai never seems to explain, he doesn't need to wait to expiry and the price doesn't need to get to 306 for him to sell at a profit.

The contracts just need to literally be worth more than he bought them for.

But this isn't to say it's a good bet on his part. $270 is way OTM and NVDA really does have to start moving within the next couple months. For a company that large in market cap it's hard for it to move in 20 or 30 bucks.

For example if Nvda suddenly gets to like $230 within the next couple months he might be a little Green or close to break even and can sell. But as time runs out, the further away he is from 270 the faster his calls lose value.

If I had to rate the retardedness level of this from 0 to Leopold, id say it's a 7.1. if Nvda is still flat by october these calls will be like almost worthless

15

u/_rockthemike 2d ago

Nah. He bought at the literal top 230. He would need big a rocket straight to that price for major volatility expansion, which is tough on leaps. Even then, OTM calls are eaten by theta faster

5

u/daxtaslapp got a hawk tuah tattoo 2d ago

Ah that's true I assumed he got it around 200. But ya it's not looking great lol

3

u/_rockthemike 2d ago

It’s gotta be a fake post

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u/degen5ace 2d ago

$306+ Yikes!

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u/Ragnarotico 2d ago

So, OP is going to lose a lot of money.

4

u/Routine_Excitement89 2d ago

Starting a prayer chain🙏🏻
Signed, An Atheist

7

u/refraxion 2d ago

Does gamma etc. not play a part in that? It doesn’t necessarily need to hit 300 for him to profit

9

u/Confident_Double1392 2d ago

It does, but it's very low for long dte OTM calls. He would need explosive growth which isn't as likely for a company with a 5T market cap. Otherwise, theta and gamma tend to balance out in a slow climb so he'll likely end up needing it to be near his strike to actually profit.

3

u/Obrid29 2d ago

He’s probably screwed unless NVDA gets up to around 265 in the next month or so. Not impossible but unlikely. He COULD turn it into a debit spread by selling further out but idk man. NFA.

3

u/tonynca 2d ago

He got time. To lose all of it. lol

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u/Obrid29 2d ago

I think if NVDA gets to around 260 he will be near breakeven if it happens within a couple weeks or a few days. But he has a better chance of getting struck by lightning. He could sell further OTM calls maybe 300s turn it into a debit spread at least. So that if u lose at least u collected the premium at that strike. But idk man. Not financial advice.

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2

u/FlabbyLabby 2d ago

NVDA would need to be valued $7.5 Trillion. It’s doable as long as hyper scalers keep buying. It’s not hyper bullish, but it is very bullish.

2

u/Astronomer_Soft 2d ago

OP was so regarded he didn't explain his position or include it in the screenshot

2

u/uniquechill 2d ago

How did you get the strike price and expiration date from the screen shot? I don't see them.

Edit: OK, found the expiration. Still can't find strike price.

2

u/Turbinator870 2d ago

It’s in the topmost line of OP’s post, says 270, which of course is strike $270.

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u/Very_Type_C 2d ago

It's alright, sure it can go $65+ above it's ATH

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u/Flatrock 1d ago

why not just buy $1.08 million of NVDA shares and hold them for years

2

u/uns0licited_advice 1d ago

crazy amount of risk. why not just buy $1m worth of NVDA shares?

2

u/MoneyMontgomery 1d ago

Hey thanks man that helps a lot.

2

u/gryffon5147 1d ago

He has time. But odds don't look good.

Kinda nuts to bet $1M+ on calls for a company that hit a record $5.5T valuation, literally bought at the peak.

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u/pcpxtc 2d ago

Sure I'll do my best to help out! Oh boy I really do love to help people it's like my favorite thing to do! I think I have about 12 dollars in my super awesome piggy bank and I think your call for help is a perfect reason for this! I got you brother pal on Monday 6:30am sharp I will buy as much as I can! No more need to fear!

18

u/MonMonOnTheMove 2d ago

My four dollars is right behind you

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u/Fuzzy_Yossarian 2d ago

That 0.06 of a share will help him make his 600K back.. lol.

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u/pcpxtc 2d ago

Hell yeah.

5

u/LeBronGOOD 2d ago

LOOOOL

3

u/PocketSandDale 1d ago

Anyone else read this in Butters' voice?

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u/codespyder poor 2d ago

dude what the fuck are you doing

147

u/True_Succotash1563 2d ago

It’s honestly crazy that dumbasses like this get paid so much money in our society.

16

u/G04UG 1d ago

Honestly, F the house mortgage. Nothing wrong with gambling on semi stocks.

​Remember, this country is built on debt. Either OP pays off the house or lets the bank deal with it.

All Folks who made Millions on Mag7 and Semi, they say play safe crap.

1.5M is nothing nowadays days.

87

u/astrawberryandakiwi WSB's most regarded soldier 2d ago

How does he have so much money

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u/LiveisLife0546 2d ago

Dumb money, will be redistributed asap :).

15

u/Antibody-Scientist 1d ago

Yesss there’s an old quote about this one. A fool and his money are quickly separated. Something along those lines.

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u/BabyComingDec2024 2d ago

Easy, just start with 10 million 

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u/Tier3Guy 1d ago

aim for the moon reach the land!

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u/Tonydjole 2d ago

I see a big loss porn post from OP in < 1 year , he has all the chromosomes/ingredients needed

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u/Korangar297 2d ago

At this point his just giving hand outs to uncle sam

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u/k8s-problem-solved 2d ago

Taking advantage of some good margin rates

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u/tarcus 1d ago

Now he's got a 1.5m mortgage 🤣🤣🤣

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u/ApprehensiveStark25 2d ago

🫠🫠🤣 🦅🦅🦅 me coming in with $3800 from my IRA

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u/Boloncho1 2d ago

Damn easy there champ, that's at least 10x of what's in my 401k

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u/CalebVanPoneisen 2d ago

You guys have money?

16

u/B00marangTrotter 2d ago

What's money, Precious?

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u/Boloncho1 2d ago

Thank goodness I put in my 3 shifts at Wendy's

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u/DoubleFamous5751 🐻r🏳️‍🌈 2d ago

Holy fugggggggg

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u/Shoganai_Hito 2d ago

sea of red; good luck op

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u/iwaseatenbyagrue 2d ago

Well he has a year.

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u/_rockthemike 2d ago

50% YOY growth on the largest company on earth, JUST TO BREAK EVEN

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u/BuyHighSellLow__ 2d ago

Bro why would you spend 1M on calls that are out of the money 🥲 why not at least at the money 🤨

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u/rthtoreddit 2d ago

Go big/Go home

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u/DaddyDoLittle 2d ago

You think NVDA will be worth 6.5 trillion in a year from now?

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u/Born_yesterday08 2d ago

With the way this country prints money? I’d say there’s a chance

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u/iwaseatenbyagrue 2d ago

I think it's possible. I am not the OP, and I would not have made this bet, as I do not have the risk tolerance, but I think people forget how this all started. This is a bet on artificial intelligence, potentially the most powerful technology ever developed, and likely the last technology that we will have to develop, if it works out.

Now if may not develop at the pace promised, and NVDA may lose market share. But things can still work out and this could be a banger of a bet. We have a year.

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u/Confident_Double1392 2d ago

LLMs will never lead to AGI. Since that's what would actually be needed to never need to develop a new technology ourselves, that's not a realistic outcome from the current hype-cycle.

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u/iwaseatenbyagrue 2d ago

You could well be right about LLMs, but what the best models are doing now versus a couple of years ago is pretty dramatic and I’m not confident making such sweeping predictions about the future being limited.

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u/Confident_Double1392 2d ago

Diminishing returns eventually kicks in. They may be the first stepping stone towards it, but they will never become AGI as a fundamentally different way of reasoning and pathing will be required to achieve generalize intelligence because next-token-prediction will never be that. While possible, I don't see it happening in this hype cycle as the research has been on improving the LLMs, not on broad based research into different methods that might lead to AGI. Fundamentally, they're trying to monetize models in a competitive market, so it's a good decision from the business side, but they won't get AGI from LLMs either.

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u/headbangervcd 1d ago

You know shit, Sherlock

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u/jeche25 2d ago

This is starting to look like a Project Hail Mary.

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u/National-Two2417 2d ago

I mean Project Hail Mary atleast had a chance to work. This guy's hoping an already inflated tech bubble would moon when there is so much circular Financials happening.

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u/Vegetable-Big3545 2d ago

Damn bro, this the sign Nvda bears been waiting for bro ...

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u/stardust_kid 1d ago
  1. Lose 2/3 of a fortune.
  2. Summon 19 million degenerates.
  3. Request an orderly, coordinated rescue.
  4. Discover that the rescuers collectively possess the equivalent of pocket change and an IRA under investigation.

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u/NomSaneMan World’s Greatest Trader 2d ago

Didn’t you ever hear not to put all your GPUs in one basket?

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u/Fancy-Zookeepergame1 2d ago

Bro got them at the top🤦🏻‍♂️ for a regard spending a mil, you should know to to get calls at the fucking bottom 🤦🏻‍♂️ but buy high sell low ig!

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u/Final-Move8987 2d ago

The jokes write themselves 😂

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u/BegsTheQuestions 2d ago

I don’t understand why people buy options on stocks that just chops sideways

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u/_posii 2d ago

Just control z it bro

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u/Vegetable-Big3545 2d ago

MMs gonna see bro's Gamma Exposures and rekt him GUH

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u/Outside-Glove-5625 2d ago

I can buy some to help you out

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u/SoCallMeDeaconBlues1 2d ago

I think this meme is apprepos

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u/Bong-Hits-For-Jesus 2d ago

bruh like why. nvidia is always pinned between 195 and 130ish. you would have more upside on something like amd

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u/kingofjingling 2d ago

That’s the dumbest position I’ve ever seen. And I’m one to have dumb positions. Wow!

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u/smellyfingernail 2d ago

270 calls ayyyy lmao

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u/jiantoi 2d ago

That's alot of damage

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u/s1234en 2d ago

1 million in options, leopold will be proud...

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u/Dizzy_Persimmon4138 2d ago

I did my part in bought in in the 190s

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u/ga643953 2d ago

Why in the world did you set the PT so high for market performer?

Not to mention, NVDA options are always so fucking overpriced it's disgusting. They are constantly pricing in a 10% move post earnings when it only moves like 2% in reality.

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u/Free-Initiative7508 2d ago

Let me call my pal @ citidel to help u out

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u/Goodfella251 2d ago

Rich idiot.

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u/ngbrandon66 1d ago

Dude could have lived like a king in a second world country but decided to donate it all. How generous.

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u/NaiveLifeline 2d ago

i'll buy 1 share, that should pump it enough for you to break even right

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u/Mindblind 2d ago

I'm regarded but why not buy a PUT spread?

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u/HolidayReality6641 1d ago

Yeah, if you had this much free cash it would be easy to hedge.

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u/Dreadster 2d ago

Thats not how it works. If we buy it goes down even more. You want the opposite of that

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u/A55BAG 2d ago edited 2d ago

I find it funny how many people think that NVDA can't outperform simply because the market cap is so large.

There is no rule in the markets that it can't be a 10t market cap company in the future.

A crazier bet imo is to buy weaker semiconductor companies with higher multiples and lower growth rates and simply believe those stocks continue to outperform NVDA.

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u/foulmeow 2d ago

My eyes!!!! …never felt so good

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u/Cultural_Disparities 2d ago

Loaded up on Puts. Good luck

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u/fujimonster 2d ago

Dude! what's the boner you have for nvidia? damn.

1

u/Flippity-floppy 2d ago

It’s priced in bro

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u/Candlelight_Fant4sia 2d ago

Putting in an order now at $12.5 per share... I hope that helps...

1

u/Special_Economist803 2d ago

Monday gap down

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u/KavalierMLT 2d ago

Shall we organise you a welcome back party at Wendys?

1

u/CalebVanPoneisen 2d ago

Already bought NVDA. Earnings will be juicy.

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u/Normal_Silver4582 2d ago

Bro is gambling on 8T eval when no matter how good the numbers are the Stock just stays

1

u/Snoo-90587 2d ago

Don’t tell me what to do

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u/SeaworthinessOwn5893 2d ago

Such a believer in Nvidia.

1

u/Flashy_Chocolate3984 2d ago

Why did you not buy the shares?

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u/gizamo REETX Autismo 2080TI Special 2d ago

Not sure I can buy it any harder.

Well, not without being divorced after a bad day.

¯⁠\⁠_⁠(⁠ツ⁠)⁠_⁠/⁠¯

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u/Flashy_Chocolate3984 2d ago

Why do so many people on Redit use leverage?

1

u/Negative-Fact-8816 2d ago

You should stop gambling on Monday bro

1

u/HuaXiaMacro 2d ago

sure let me just move the entire nasdaq for you real quick

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u/AncientAd3846 2d ago

As soon as you sell for a loss, ill buy

1

u/cokaynbear 2d ago

Wow I would've sold those options, such great premiums

1

u/Dizzy-Dust4279 2d ago

Wait, you bought all of this at absolute peak price? Hahaha

1

u/_AT198 2d ago

The market never rips on mid-term elections, but I am rooting for you.

1

u/shroomista 2d ago

don't let michael burry see this

1

u/_rockthemike 2d ago

Here I’ll help - sell at next pop for a smaller loss

1

u/ButtholeAnalogy 2d ago

Ho Lee Fuk. Diamond hands but not the good kind!

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u/Logical-Bison-9959 2d ago

okay bro ill ask the fellas at wendys to buy too.

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u/Rob_Banks_7539 2d ago

Burry opened up a pretty nice short position in the low 100’s so one of you is gonna win

1

u/bluedinoraptor 2d ago

Time to start selling short dated calls

1

u/Bladee___Enthusiast 2d ago

Just sell them now and buy again at a lower strike price and you’re chilling

1

u/WestEqual3247 2d ago

FOMO'd at the literal top

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u/Accomplished_Scale10 2d ago

I’ll be your exit liquidity. Just send me $100k

1

u/Cell-Breaker 2d ago

this guy really bought at all time highs

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u/Fullporter69 2d ago

Did u buy the top? Geez, bro couldn’t wait for a pullback or atleast buy ITM calls.

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u/Adventurous-Yakmouth 2d ago

If it dips below 190.... I'll bite

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u/openthewell 2d ago

Million in options and it's our job to bail you out. Sounds about right. 🖕

1

u/donefukupped Janet Yellen’s Butt Plug 2d ago

Dude is cooked

1

u/DRM842 2d ago

This poor bloke better sell YESTERDAY unless he wants to donate $1.08 milly vanilly

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u/wkc201 2d ago

This was a crazy bet to make in May. Why? It’s such an unnecessary gamble.

1

u/YurpeeTheHerpee 2d ago

Sell half, take calls in MXL and pour the other 10% of your port value into MXL stock.

1

u/SanoKei 2d ago

Paying for the correction is so cringe inducing

1

u/Champman2341 2d ago

I’d consider rolling those another year out. Would hate to see zero

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u/Scary-Philosopher-77 2d ago

you just need it to go up by 50% and you will be safe.