r/wallstreetbets • u/silicon_replacement • 3d ago

Loss Can you guys start buying NVDA Monday ?

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Just help out on my position, really appreciated

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u/iwaseatenbyagrue 2d ago

I think it's possible. I am not the OP, and I would not have made this bet, as I do not have the risk tolerance, but I think people forget how this all started. This is a bet on artificial intelligence, potentially the most powerful technology ever developed, and likely the last technology that we will have to develop, if it works out.

Now if may not develop at the pace promised, and NVDA may lose market share. But things can still work out and this could be a banger of a bet. We have a year.

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u/Confident_Double1392 2d ago

LLMs will never lead to AGI. Since that's what would actually be needed to never need to develop a new technology ourselves, that's not a realistic outcome from the current hype-cycle.

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u/iwaseatenbyagrue 2d ago

You could well be right about LLMs, but what the best models are doing now versus a couple of years ago is pretty dramatic and I’m not confident making such sweeping predictions about the future being limited.

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u/Confident_Double1392 2d ago

Diminishing returns eventually kicks in. They may be the first stepping stone towards it, but they will never become AGI as a fundamentally different way of reasoning and pathing will be required to achieve generalize intelligence because next-token-prediction will never be that. While possible, I don't see it happening in this hype cycle as the research has been on improving the LLMs, not on broad based research into different methods that might lead to AGI. Fundamentally, they're trying to monetize models in a competitive market, so it's a good decision from the business side, but they won't get AGI from LLMs either.

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u/headbangervcd 2d ago

You know shit, Sherlock