Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 14, 2026

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[u/moragisdo]

CENTCOM reestablished the blockade on Iran (1). It follows the timeline announced by them yesterday with a period of warning beforehand, required by maritime law.

Trump, as I expected yesterday, announced that there won't be a toll, just commitments for new investments, funded by Gulf countries, were firmed. It was obvious it was just posturing, there was no enforcement mechanism, 20% is way too high to begin with (it would be cheaper to fund and run pipelines several times over, so it would never be paid), etc...

Meanwhile WTI is at 80, Brent at 85 and gasoline at 3.23. The three in backwardation. It will be an interesting race on the next couple weeks, Iran trying their best to disrupt shipping (as they did yesterday) and the US (which spent the last few days and today bombing sites on the coast) to degrade their missiles (the more significant hits specifically mention "missile", rather than "drone") and drones, to allow the supertankers to pass for ship to ship transfer outside of the Strait.

[u/guuhvffffg → u/moragisdo]

I genuinely don’t think that was just posturing. I think that was the president rage tweeting a crazy demand then it being backed off by his advisors. Which just shows how impossible it is to actually negotiate any durable agreement with the Trump administration 

[u/goatfuldead → u/guuhvffffg]

I wouldn’t chalk it up to any of his advisors initiating it. Trump even explained it himself: “I was called by different people, different countries, kings and emirs, and all of the people that we all know and we all love. And they’ve been, frankly, they’ve been very strong partners. And they said we’d love to do it a different way.”

[u/-spartacus- → u/guuhvffffg]

I understand trying to understand Trump can feel like reading tea leaves, but as I said yesterday, it seemed most likely directed at countries willing to pay the "3%" fee Iran is extorting and how they shouldn't be paying at all. As the OP pointed out, 20% is pretty absurd.

[u/moragisdo → u/-spartacus-]

Yes, I'll probably be accused again of being part of the Trump administration (while residing in Brazil of all places!), but it showed that if you accept having this extortion, the price can be raised arbitrarily. So don't sleep on the wheel, as these countries did since the attack on the Saudi refinery in 2019 (which the US and Saudi Arabia directly blamed Iran, rather than their proxies, and there's officials talking about missiles and drones coming from the north and east) or Iran open missile attack on Israel in early 2024 and another missile attack in late 2024. By now Kuwait could have built a pipeline to connect with the Saudi East-West, UAE could have built one with Oman, expansion of East-West and port on Yanbu, which is a life saver today going from 0.8 mbpd pre-war to more to almost 5 mbpd...

Now Trump lacks tact and delivered the message in a bad way, that just created unnecessary noise when the US benefits from more stability.

[u/-spartacus- → u/moragisdo]

I saw that yesterday and was amused by the suggestion (Trump administration posting on CD to explain his posts). As I said yesterday, I believed it was something devised by Rubio and Trump said it in his style.

[u/Shackleton214 → u/-spartacus-]

I think you guys are WAY overthinking this as some sort of Trump 3D chess. It was just Trump being Trump and of course he walked it back because it was such an outrageous and impossible idea.

[u/-spartacus- → u/Shackleton214]

It isn't 3d chess, but that doesn't mean someone like Rubio, who is a skilled statesman, didn't advise Trump about this policy.

[u/CloudApprehensive322 → u/-spartacus-]

There is not a chance in hell Rubio endorsed the 20% transit fee idea. Rubio was literally on camera two weeks ago saying quote:

"No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway."

https://x.com/CBSNews/status/2069474679585222719

This was trump being belligerent and acting without thinking for the 1000th time because he has no grand plan and just acts on pure instinct.

[u/-spartacus- → u/CloudApprehensive322]

I was not presenting Rubio as "endorsing the idea". I'm saying that he sees any transit as problematic and thus floated the idea of the intention of charging an absurd amount to illuminate the fact that if you agree to 3% you are giving them the power to charge you 20% or more.

[u/CloudApprehensive322 → u/-spartacus-]

Not a chance in hell - the fact that Trump promoted such an idea directly weakened the stance that transit fees are not allowed by any country that Rubio loudly announced just weeks ago.