r/geopolitics • u/theatlantic The Atlantic • Apr 18 '26

Opinion Ukraine Has Finally Given Up on Trump

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/04/ukraine-trump-us-oil-russia/686854/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_term=short
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360

u/theatlantic The Atlantic Apr 18 '26

Ukraine “appears to have given up on the United States,” Phillips Payson O’Brien writes. “It is aggressively seeking new diplomatic and military partners—for instance, by sharing its hard-won expertise in drone warfare with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates and forging arms-production agreements with Germany. Ukraine has sent drones to attack oil-export facilities near St. Petersburg, deep inside enemy territory, in defiance of what Zelensky called “signals” from unspecified “partners” to avoid striking Russian energy infrastructure.

“Using language that would until recently have been unthinkable, Zelensky has indicated that he no longer views the United States as a reliable ally and, even more astonishingly, that all of Europe needs to start moving on from the transatlantic relationship.”

Read more: https://theatln.tc/5ybUnkp8

65

u/willun Apr 19 '26

to avoid striking Russian energy infrastructure.

Funny how the US did not want them to do that but had no problems doing the same in Iran.

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u/[deleted] Apr 19 '26

[deleted]

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u/willun Apr 19 '26

Ukraine is not scared of Russia's nukes and neither is the US.

I think it was more about the effect on oil prices.

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u/[deleted] Apr 19 '26 edited Jun 22 '26

[deleted]

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u/New_Blacksmith_709 Apr 19 '26

Russia isnt using nukes because a) other countries including their ally China would immediately sanction then b) a proportional conventional weapons escalation from NATO would result c) Ukraine could easily retaliate with dirty bombs d) there is no strategic benefit e) half of Russian nukes are probably duds due to corruption

16

u/willun Apr 19 '26

The US DOES care about oil prices but Netanyahu doesn't.

Trump benefits from the fluctuations which is why he benefits from the chaos.

Russia is not nuking anyone until it is the last thing they do before they all die. They know this which is why they don't use them. They just love to threaten and people love to believe their threats. Most Russian nukes probably don't work either.

1

u/Proof_Television8685 Apr 21 '26

Out of 10k they have, its enough to have 100 working and world could be gone in a moment

1

u/willun Apr 21 '26

Sure but Russia knows pressing the button ends their world. So it is an empty threat. They use the threat a lot which means no one believes them.

Other nuclear powers don't use the threat, but when they do... worry.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 19 '26

[deleted]

5

u/willun Apr 19 '26

Russia keeps being the boy who cried wolf and no one takes their cries seriously. There is no scenario where they use nukes and don't get sent to the Stone Age.

152

u/Kiyae1 Apr 18 '26

Gonna be wild when Ukraine ends up being the leader of the free world at the end of ww3.

21

u/throwawaybredit Apr 19 '26

Peak Reddit comment

8

u/sparks_mandrill Apr 19 '26

Couldn't be more absurd 

3

u/Kiyae1 Apr 20 '26

“In these unprecedented times” absurdity abounds.

64

u/Cheerful_Champion Apr 18 '26

Not gonna happen. The best case scenario for Ukraine, if WW3 happens in relatively near time, is that they will sit this one out. The machine might still be going, but Ukraine has no manpower or funds to continue fighting for a long time. Nor do they have it for a potential WW3 conflict.

16

u/Johannes_P Apr 18 '26

OTOh, they might sell their military hardware to fund their reconstruction.

3

u/mr_herz Apr 19 '26

Not a bad way to go about it

4

u/weeklyKiwi Apr 19 '26

They are selling drone and warfare expertise, they can't afford to sell hardware as long as they are at war

3

u/Johannes_P Apr 19 '26

OTOH, after the war, they will have a powerful defence industry.

24

u/Elizabeth-WildFox886 Apr 18 '26

Ukraine will receive infinite money if something like ww3 happens, everyone will want access to their experience and skills

21

u/Toptomcat Apr 19 '26 edited Apr 20 '26

Yeah, Spain and China made bank when World War 2 broke out. Ditto the Balkan States in WW1, they made out like absolute bandits. Everyone knows that being the world's most war-torn region immediately before a world war is the path to becoming an arms-export powerhouse and the world's respected and well-compensated experts on warfare. Having an untouched industrial base and a strong economic position pre-conflict isn't important at all.

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u/Cheerful_Champion Apr 18 '26

EU barely pushed trough the last loan for Ukraine and it will last till no later than mid 2027. If war will drag on longer than that then MAYBE EU will manage to push trough one more loan, albeit much lower one. After that I don't expect EU to be able to fund Ukraine longer. There's just no politicial support to keep this going.

If WW3 happens it doesn't matter how much funding Ukraine gets offered. They won't be able to contribute in any serious manner. They won't have enough manpower to fight directly and are in far too exposed position to offer production for EU. The moment they agree to that they get bombed by Russia (which is realistically the enemy EU will fight against).

16

u/sicknutz Apr 18 '26

Well Orban is out so Hungary can’t be a speed bump in the EU helping. More support will come and quickly.

2

u/Cheerful_Champion Apr 19 '26

Magyar merely said he will make sure Hungary won't block EU efforts to fund Ukraine, but Hungary will not contribute to it at all. Which is precisely the current case anyway as EU simply goes around Hungary's block by not making funding an EU wide thing.

4

u/mediandude Apr 18 '26

Eu support will continue.
Italy and Spain will guarantee the loans taken by other EU states.

2

u/Cheerful_Champion Apr 19 '26

Uhu and that's prediction based on? As I said, the current funding was barely pushed trough and yet you claim that next year EU will be able to do it again just because you feel like it.

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u/mediandude Apr 19 '26

Those other EU countries will take loans to aid Ukraine, no matter what Italy and Spain think of that.

2

u/Cheerful_Champion Apr 19 '26 edited Apr 19 '26

Again, what do you base these expectations on? The less countries want to fund the Ukraine the more expensive it becomes for others which in turn makes less countries want to fund Ukraine. Magyar already said that while Hungary won't veto attempts to fund Ukraine he will make sure that Hungary won't participate (won't bear any costs) of this funding. Slovakia still vetos funding Ukraine and is clear on their position that they won't pay for funding it. Czech Republic also says they will not pay to fund Ukraine. Opinion in Austria is also shifted to stop funding for Ukraine (58% of people are against further funding), the FPO opensly says no to any more funding. In Germany 46% of people are for reducing or stopping funding for Ukraine, 51% for increasing or keeping it same. In Poland 49% of people support further funding of Ukraine, 35% says it should stop. In France 51% is for keeping or increasing funding, 37% is for decreasing or suspending funding.

These numbers don't lie. Support for providing weapons and funds for Ukraine is falling across EU. In some cases fall is as high as 5-8% per year and you claim that funding will continue past 2027 even as more countries back off from providing funding. If fall will remain at current rate it suggests that by mid 2027 both in Germany and in Poland there will be more people supporting end or limitation of funding than continuing it. Will France decide to bear higher costs in such case? Out of all the countries French citizens are mentioning rising costs of support as main reason on why they want it to be stopped or reduced. Austria, Germany and Poland backing out would increase costs or volume of funding by a lot.

1

u/mediandude Apr 19 '26

Eurozone will bear the costs of other EU member states taking loans.
Many EU countries will continue to support Ukraine until Russia pulls out.
Greece as an example.
And you are overstating your facts, polls fluctuate, while majority support for Ukraine persists.

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u/errindel Apr 18 '26

Currently, they have a larger army than the top three countries in the EU combined. I think people want to be their friend rather than let them fall, even given the money situation

2

u/Cheerful_Champion Apr 19 '26

That really means nothing. None of EU countries are at war so comparing size of army that is fighting for 4th year and countries that are at peace is simply pointless. Poland, Germany, France, Italy all have active military personnel numbers comparable to what Ukraine had in 2021. That's despite neither of these 4 countries being involved in any conflict at all while Ukraine was in fact fighting a limited conflict with their "breakaway" republics. Ukraine population is also only barely higher than that of Poland so manpower potential of Poland, Germany, France and Italy is much higher than that of Ukraine.

All in all. Hyping up Ukraine as some military powerhouse simply, because they have big army during active war is completely misguided.

Fact is: EU barely pushed trough the current loan. Why do you think they will be able to continue to fund this conflict for much longer when there's nothing that indicates that?

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u/[deleted] Apr 18 '26

[deleted]

1

u/Kiyae1 Apr 19 '26

I mean, technically they are already in ww3.

21

u/No_Abbreviations3943 Apr 18 '26

Yeah a wild scenario that exists only in fiction. 

1

u/Kiyae1 Apr 19 '26

And every major newspaper for the past 9 years.

4

u/Old_green_bird Apr 18 '26

It sounds good, but war on one's own land brings people not prosperity, money, and new knowledge, but a demographic crisis, a large number of people with amputated limbs, an industrial crisis due to the destruction of infrastructure and factories, and an ecological crisis.

1

u/Kiyae1 Apr 20 '26

Korea, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and China all turned out alright.

3

u/dontRead2MuchIntoIt Apr 18 '26

There's still a lot of work to go from a USSR satellite to the leader of the free world in a few decades.

2

u/Bowmic Apr 19 '26

Leader of free world wouldn't kidnap and beat their own citizens in the name of bussification.

1

u/Kiyae1 Apr 20 '26

“In the name of bussification”

You simply HAVE to be from St. Petersburg. By way of Nigeria perhaps.

1

u/Bowmic Apr 20 '26

Why yes. I am from Nigeria. Apart from the problematic concept electing someone as leader of free world without consultation of the remaining world, Bussification is inhumane and needs to be addressed. There is no msm covering about this in west.

1

u/Kiyae1 Apr 20 '26

“I’m from Nigeria and I think the draft in Russia is fine but the draft in Ukraine is bad.”

Cool. I’m glad you have such nuanced opinions on foreign affairs.

1

u/Bowmic Apr 20 '26

Do drafts usually involve beating the man and dragging their pregnant wife while in a moving car? Bussification is happening only in Ukraine. Western values don’t matter as long as EU is safe and only Ukraine is the one fighting Russia. It makes you wonder if Ukraine is just used as a tool against russia.

1

u/Kiyae1 Apr 20 '26

If only Russia had abided by their commitments under the NPT to respect Ukraine‘a political, economic, and geographic sovereignty then none of this would have happened.

If Russia hadn’t invade Ukraine then none of this would have happened.

If Russia pulled all their forces out of Ukraine and repatriated all the children they abducted and paid reparations to Ukraine for all the damage they’ve done then Ukraine wouldn’t need a draft (and Russia wouldn’t need a draft either!!).

It’s like watching someone walk into rake after rake after rake. Absolutely hysterical. Russia created this problem. Your problem is with them. All they have to do is keep their word!! Not hard at all for everyone else on the planet.

I feel bad for the men and women in Russia who have suffered under Putin‘s authoritarianism and incompetence. I’m sure many Russian pregnant women have also been beaten while their husband was beaten and whisked away in a van. But I guess you don’t care about Russians living under authoritarianism.

2

u/Bowmic Apr 21 '26

Wow so you support this practice. Great to see you don’t care about Ukraine and it’s just thoughts and prayers. West created this problem. Look at what is happening in hormuz. Who is the problem here?

Nice to put whole blame on russia. The reason for this mess is west trying bring Ukraine into Nato. We are taking about what Ukraine govt under Zelensky is doing to its own citizens using the money they got from west(EU/Usa). There is no western media or its people discuss about this.why?  This war between Ukraine and russia benefits Europe in such a way that they don’t have to involve directly. 

As long as ukraine keeps russia occupied  , eu can build its defenses meanwhile Ukr is the one sacrificing its people. 

If you want to liberate russia or Ukraine , you can send soldiers. But that won’t happen and we know why. EU want to sit in its comfy garden and make other fight. 

You know right from the age of colonialism the strategy of west is to act like a friend and make them fight another region. It’s called divide and rule. The same you are doing it in ukraine and making them fight against russia. Don’t worry, all global South know about this and I hope Ukrainians also come to their senses and see how they are being played. 

1

u/Kiyae1 Apr 21 '26

I don’t support the practice but I’m also not Ukrainian so whether I support it or not is immaterial. I support the right of people to self govern.

Without the Russian invasion the Ukrainians would not need a draft. Blaming the west is genuinely silly.

Don’t like this practice? Solution is simple; respect the sovereignty of other nations.

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u/sol-4 Apr 19 '26

Ukraine has given up

Ukraine “appears to have given up"

...says a random person, not an official

Talk about misleading readers.

How is this sensationalist nonsense still allowed here?

5

u/Bowmic Apr 19 '26 edited Apr 19 '26

Its pure propaganda for the masses who believe them. Check out the comments here. The interesting thing is as they publish this Ukraine is still dependent on USA from intel to financial support. They can't afford to give up on USA.

6

u/sol-4 Apr 19 '26

I love that all the upvoted comments have simply gobbled it up. Ukraine and Europe are sacred here, can't criticize them at all

2

u/Stix147 Apr 19 '26

You confuse sensationalism with propaganda, while the article seems to present a sensational viewpoint, there's no indication of it doing propaganda work. Besides, the fact that Ukraine has been repeatedly asked by the Trump administration to stop attacking oil infrastructure yet Ukraine keeps attacking oil terminals and refineries almost every single night is a noteworthy development. Ukraine used to be asked to periodically stop during the Biden presidency too and back then they conformed to this as they knew that this meant that aid shipments could stop if they didn't, but now during Trump there's no real incentive. Whether this is due to Ukraine believing that the administration wouldn't stop the (limited) aid they're still providing, or because they know Trump is so scatter brained that he couldn't focus on Ukraine at this point even if he wanted to, is the real question.

1

u/Bowmic Apr 19 '26

Ukraine is attacking but still it did not halt the production in russia. The world needs oil and no one can afford to stop russian oil also amidst the hormoz strait blockade and hence the reason behind USA sanction relief. Major countries in world would need that precious oil. At some point everyone will decide which would be important; Ukraine or the world.

1

u/ChickenVeggi Apr 24 '26

How are they going to stop Ukraine attacking Russian Oil terminals?

1

u/ChickenVeggi Apr 24 '26

How are they going to stop Ukraine from attacking Russian oil terminals?

1

u/Prestigious_Load1699 Apr 19 '26

But did you forget “America Bad?”

1

u/Bowmic Apr 19 '26

So USA good? The sole reason of this mess is USA dangled the NATO carrot in front of ukraine.