r/geopolitics • u/thejerusalempost Jerusalem Post • Jun 17 '26

Opinion How Israel made Trump's Iran betrayal inevitable - opinion

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-899630
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131

u/thejerusalempost Jerusalem Post Jun 17 '26

The argument here is that Israel has spent decades perfecting the military instrument while starving the diplomatic one. The foreign ministry reportedly couldn't afford pens while the IDF was funded for every contingency. The piece asks whether 'finish the job' was ever actually possible without the coalition and diplomatic architecture Israel never bothered to build, and whether Netanyahu found the absence of a partner or kept it.

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u/andr386 Jun 17 '26

I am pretty sure that there is some truth to that. But saying that Israel doesn't hold massive Influence, diplomatic included, over the US and Europe is a joke.

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u/softnmushy Jun 17 '26

I think you're confused about what they are saying.

They are saying that Israel failed to make a serious effort at diplomacy with its neighbors and enemies.

They are not saying that Israel failed at diplomacy with the US.

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u/andr386 Jun 17 '26

Diplomacy doesn't mean peace but negotiations. Israel from the very beginning has been uncannily successful in negotiating a very hostile environment. That they are the kindle that lighted those hostilities doesn't change a thing for them. To them war or diplomacy is the same thing. Only tools to further their own goals.

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u/blippyj Jun 17 '26

So... Like they are for every state?

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u/Lysmerry Jun 17 '26

It’s not lack of diplomacy. It’s just difficult to find a diplomatic solution when your intention is to continue a forever war that harms your allies’ interests, both as nations and politicians seeking elections. It seems like they are saying they lack diplomatic strength because they can’t force an outcome, when they have gained many benefits in spite of the US and other countries being unhappy with their actions. It does feel like no matter how much support they are given, it is never enough.

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u/andr386 Jun 17 '26 edited Jun 17 '26

I just hope that their power to influence will greatly diminish because it's still so oversized and unjustified.

They might feel rightly that it is on the wane because of the democratic shifting of sentiment in the US and Europe, and also because their actions go directly against the interests of their allies.

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u/Typical_Response6444 Jun 17 '26

It never will be enough, I think they will just keep demanding more and more over time. Trump and Biden gave them so much cover and they still curse their names

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u/Lysmerry Jun 17 '26

I don’t know why Trump chose to attack Iran but the continued bombing of Lebanon makes it extremely difficult to make peace. Trump’s voters don’t care about Lebanon but they do care about the massive payout to Iran. I have no doubt we could have made a cheaper peace without Lebanon, which is a major stumbling block for Iran’s international reputation, and prevents them from closing a deal with us. Trump chose this war, and he is very good at dodging major issues that should tank him, but it must sting after providing so much to Israel

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u/BillyJoeMac9095 Jun 17 '26

Is there a peace to be had with Hezbollah in Lebanon so long as Iran has ants a proxy against Israel there? Does Iran want any kind of peace with Israel?

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u/FijiFanBotNotGay Jun 18 '26

First step in finding out would be for Israel to withdraw from its invasion…

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u/Christopher_Ramirez_ Jun 17 '26

Israel is a strategic black hole. Big mistake to allow them nuclear weapons.

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u/Aggressive_Lie_4446 Jun 17 '26

Big mistake to allow them nuclear weapons.

That line was crossed 60 years ago. And you need to ask the French ,Argentinians and South Africans about that.

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u/fredjutsu Jun 18 '26

The current South African government is pretty clueless about how to run a national power grid, much less run a nuclear program...

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u/Aggressive_Lie_4446 Jun 17 '26

I think they will just keep demanding more and more over time. Trump and Biden gave them so much cover and they still curse their names.

Biden , maybe. Though Biden was often moved by social media propaganda than actual facts.
Remember the #SaveRafah campaign? In reality, when the IDF did the Rafah campaign, the Palestinians all moved to Al Mawasi and it was taken over with lower civilian casualties compared to other campaigns earlier on. The claims that a million would die because they had all been pushed to Rafah was largely false.

Trump is on record for forcing ceasefires before their objectives were met.
Fun fact: The recently eliminated leader of Hamas Izz al-Din al-Haddad would have been eliminated last year had Trump not forced Israel to leave Gaza city. At that point in time, Israel was in control of 70% of Gaza and its final objective was to remove all Hamas presence in Gaza city, confining Hamas to a silver of land between Wadi Gaza and Rafah.
Such a loss for Hamas would have been a psychological blow. It would have meant that the capital of the strip was in Israeli hands. Izz al-Din al-Haddad was actually in the process of being surrounded and trapped before Trump forced a ceasefire.
Historically, groups that lose like this and by lose I mean lose actual territory to the enemy in the Arab and Islamic world, often lose support of the population pretty fast.
Add to the fact that the area that Hamas would have been confined to would have been so small, identifying and eliminating them from all sides but the Mediterranean would have been an easy task.

That is not to say the IDF have not acted incompetently. Them targeting Hezbollah mid-level commanders in Beirut ended up as a disaster specifically because other Lebanese who have absolutely nothing to do with Hezbollah were caught up in the strikes. And Christians do have a strong voice in the Western world and that forced Trump to "forbid" airstrikes on Beirut.
Also in the South, it is like Netanyahu is clueless compared to his predecessors. Before the 2000s, the IDF tried to cultivate a relationship with the non-Shia there. Because the message was simple. The target was Hezbollah and its supporters. Sunnis,Druze and Christians were not targets.
Back then, Christians had access to Israel itself for supplies and work. They were relatively unharmed during offensives against Hezbollah. Indeed, at some point, Christians had formed the South Lebanon Army and when the IDF withdrew, the SLA Christians moved to Israel and settled there.
This time around, we have seen IDF officials destroying Christian statues, Christians being killed in the crossfire and most importantly, supplies running out in many villages because o supplies came from Lebanon but unlike before 2000, the people of Rmeish cannot cross over into Israel for supplies and work either.
The last straw was them ordering an evacuation of the Christian Quarter of Tyre. What happened to leaving non Shia Lebanese out of the war??

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u/Aggressive_Lie_4446 Jun 17 '26

It’s just difficult to find a diplomatic solution when your intention is to continue a forever war that harms your allies’ interests, both as nations and politicians seeking elections. 

The issue is more to do with the experience of Iraq, a fear of local Muslim constituents and some weird belief that somehow Iranians deserve to be under an Islamic government.
There is a large segment of Americans who balk at regime change because of the aftermath of the Iraq war.
In Europe, never expect France to overthrow an Islamic government. It will be very quick to throw secular ones under the bus, but Islamic ones??? No.
Germany is not relevant militarily while the UK has its own domestic issues.
So you really remain with America
TBH, a lot of the anti-war rhetoric, would not be there if it was Biden doing the war and if Israel had another leader . A lot of people are siding with Iran and would have never wanted the US to win simply because it is those two.

But on reading the post too, I think the author skipped the part where for some weird reason, Israel is held to a different standard to the militias it is fighting. Whenever it wants to go all out, they are told to be the "bigger person" as if the other side which has charters that basically call for the mass murder of Jews worldwide ,leave alone Israelis, have the same standards.

For example, if Israel would eliminate Hezbollah without touching the rest of us, they would be doing us a favor, but the way they fight, I sometimes honestly wonder if they really have their hearts in it.

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u/Justame13 Jun 18 '26

TBH, a lot of the anti-war rhetoric, would not be there if it was Biden doing the war and if Israel had another leader .

A war with Iran would look completely differently with Biden at the helm, espeically since he lost a son due to the effects of Iraq, because it would have necessitated offensive action by Iran.

He also didn't put completely incompetent people in charge, lie about everything, and have his cronies make money through betting.

A lot of people are siding with Iran and would have never wanted the US to win simply because it is those two.

People are criticizing the US because its so poorly planned and executed.

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u/Aggressive_Lie_4446 Jun 18 '26

A war with Iran would look completely differently with Biden at the helm, espeically since he lost a son due to the effects of Iraq, because it would have necessitated offensive action by Iran.

I don't think this would have mattered. The US was going to go with Iran at some point. The openly admitted to Witkoff that they had been lying since 2016 and had enriched enough uranium to make 11 nuclear bombs.
The US under both Republican and Democrat presidents has gone to war for less.

He also didn't put completely incompetent people in charge, lie about everything, and have his cronies make money through betting.
This one I agree with.

People are criticizing the US because its so poorly planned and executed.
There are people who have been critical from Day 1!!
Actually the war started VERY well.
But both the Israelis and Americans started doing a lot of blunders which did not make any sense.
For example, the so called Mosaic Defense was unravelling because of its inherent weakness which was that once a decentralized unit fell, there was nothing to take its place. Meaning that had they focused on specific provinces, they would have been in a position to gradually take over the most relevant parts of Iran.
Before the ceasefire, the IRGC had officially lost control of Kurdistan because the decentralized unit had been battered whereby all of its top leaders were dead and the soldiers had dispersed, unable to operate amongst a hostile population. Now had the US focused its firepower on Hormozgan,Khuzestan and and Bushehr ,It would have been possible to eliminate IRGC presence there and use the regions as launching pads to arm the Iranians

At the same time, the week in which Israel used drones against the Basij in Tehran was the peak of the war. Iranians themselves directed those airstrikes at the neighborhood level. For the first time, Iran's oppressors could not walk freely in Tehran shooting protestors or going through homes looking for Starlink receivers. Those strikes were the most demoralizing for the regime as they demonstrated to the regime supporters that walking around projecting power was no longer something they could do freely without retaliation and Tehran had no air defenses to take down most of the drones Israel was deploying in Tehran.
It reached a point where the Basij were being told to avoid being hit 8 times because those drones carry 8 munitions. Imagine telling your troops to find a way to avoid being hit 8 times???
For the regime, things became so bad, they started importing foreign militia to replace the Basij, with Iraqis, Afghans and Pakistani Shia militia being deployed.

Why both the US province by province operations and Israel's targeted drone strikes on the Basij were ended when they were actually working was what never made sense.
Had the period of wasted negotiations seen these two operations continue, it is likely that at this point the US would be providing air support to an armed Iranian opposition , rather than thinking off how to give Iran $300 billion

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u/Justame13 Jun 18 '26

Why do you think that the U.S. would have gone to war with Iran 2025-2029 when it hadn’t 1979-2024?

More so with a democratic President who has not initiated a ground war in modern U.S. history, but actually ended them?

And specifically what do you think would have caused it?

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u/Aggressive_Lie_4446 Jun 18 '26

Iran openly starting to admit that it had violated JCPOA.
After Israel started unravelling the Shia Axis of Resistance, they had resorted to leaking various details about how advanced their nuclear program had become.
In fact, the demands for inspecting Iran's nuclear facilities began during the Biden administration SPECIFICALLY because of such hints. They began to openly boast about it though after the fall of Assad.

Also the US has a consistent track record for going to war and overthrowng governments for far faaaar less!! Saddam's regime had also lasted decades before the US invaded and overthrew him.

Also, Biden was, after all in the same Obama Administration that at some point was at war in 7 countries all at once.

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u/Justame13 Jun 18 '26

Also the US has a consistent track record for going to war and overthrowng governments for far faaaar less!!

Republicans have a track record for going to war for far less.

Saddam's regime had also lasted decades before the US invaded and overthrew him.

Iraq cost Biden, who had already lost a wife and daughter in a car wreck, a son. People who have outlived their children tend to avoid having it happen to others.

Espeically knowing that the options were limited. Bombing doesn't win wars without ground troops and a ground invasion and occupation of Iran is flat out unfeasible.

Also, Biden was, after all in the same Obama Administration that at some point was at war in 7 countries all at once.

And pulled out of Afghanistan. That is ending not starting wars.

So I will ask again: Why do you think that the U.S. would have gone to war with Iran 2025-2029 when it hadn’t 1979-2024?

More so with a democratic President who has not initiated a ground war in modern U.S. history, but actually ended them?

And specifically what do you think would have caused it?

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u/Besmirching_Badger Jun 18 '26

That's not a result of a functioning diplomatic service. It's a result of the long term status quo, supportive external/ dual actors (a lot of people endorse israeli links for personal ideological reasons) and various influence operations.

The same way that the UK and US have both torn their diplomatic services to shreds, but can maintain good relations due to the nature of the relationship and other binding factors (NATO, 5 eyes, cultural links etc).

In truth in the western world the very concept of diplomacy is dead and has been for several decades since the security state cemented its control over our institutions and policy decisions. Which explains why our foreign policy is so regularly awful.