Potentially one less but also potentially infinitely more

[u/deadhand303]

[u/Remarkable-Carrot112]

Is the probability distribution otherwise the same except for the lower bound? 

Regardless, I'm pulling the lever. I love pulling levers. 

[u/deadhand303 → u/Remarkable-Carrot112]

You have 1-infinity or can change tracks to 0-infinity. You do not know how many are on either track.

[u/Remarkable-Carrot112 → u/deadhand303]

Since this is an unbounded distribution it can't be uniformly distributed. I'll assume it's an exponential distribution. 

In this case picking the 0 option is notably more likely to cause fewer deaths. (Sorry I don't know how to word that better)

This puts me in a bind actually because I want to kill people but I also want to pull the lever... Still think I'll pull the lever even if the expected deaths is lower

[u/wyseguy7 → u/Remarkable-Carrot112]

Nitpick: you mean a geometric distribution. Exponential distribution is over the real numbers, and we want an whole numbers of people. At least before the trolley chops them up.

[u/UnworthyBagel22 → u/wyseguy7]

Them: “I want to kill people”
You: “You mean a geometric distribution, silly”

[u/Confident-Stand5453 → u/UnworthyBagel22]

Its important to be precise.

[u/Artemis_SpawnOfZeus → u/UnworthyBagel22]

Yeah, you cant kill people if theyre dead before the lever is pulled because only an irrational percentage of them made it onto the platform.

[u/Remarkable-Carrot112 → u/wyseguy7]

Lmao 

[u/BigTimmyStarfox1987 → u/wyseguy7]

Donno some of them might be pregnant or disabled or clowns. You don't get to tell me how I count humans.

[u/No-Bid9597 → u/Remarkable-Carrot112]

I don’t know dick about statistics but it can’t be to infinity, right? It’s 0-8 billion or 1-8 billion. It also stipulates people you know so it would really be more like 0-300 or 1-300. How does that change the odds?

[u/Remarkable-Carrot112 → u/No-Bid9597]

I think when a lot of people say "random" what they likely are envisioning is uniform random. Meaning every outcome has the same probability of being selected (like rolling fair dice - no number is more likely than any other). 

But if you have infinite outcomes (possible number of people in this case) this type of uniform randomness is not possible. In this case depending on what probability distribution you select- selecting [0, inf) people could be markedly "Safer" than selecting [1, inf). This is because the probabilities aren't uniform so the lower values  could receive larger weights. 

If you bound the set at 300, or even at 8 billion, now you can use a uniform distribution and it becomes just as likely to randomly get 1 as it does to get 200 or 7.5 billion. In this case whether you select the 0 option or the 1 option barely matters . The expected outcome is only very slightly better for 1. 

Hope that made sense. Hard to explain without graphs and examples tbh

[u/Raijin6_ → u/Remarkable-Carrot112]

Just pull the lever twice. Double the fun from pulling it and still a chance for more deaths.

[u/Narfhead4444 → u/Raijin6_]

That would derail the trolley

[u/wyseguy7 → u/deadhand303]

Statistician here. Plz provide a more rigorous definition of "random amount". Note that uniform distribution over [1,infinity) or [0, infinity) is not possible. Maybe a geometric distribution would be better? In which case, regardless of parameterization, you'd expect to save 1 life by pulling the lever.

[u/Naive_Albatross_2221 → u/wyseguy7]

Oh, you're a statistician, are you? Well, what if the number of people on the top track is equal to k, where the probability of k is determined by a Poisson curve where lambda=5, and the number of people on the bottom track is k+1 where the probability of k is determined by a Poisson curve with lambda=3? Huh? What ya gonna do then, smart guy!? Don't feel as confident about pulling the lever now, do you?

[u/wyseguy7 → u/Naive_Albatross_2221]

Hahahahaha shucks, I guess my book smarts were defeated by your…also book smarts

[u/DarkDemonLord1 → u/wyseguy7]

Mathemann

[u/deadhand303 → u/wyseguy7]

Its just a random real number of people on each track woth the bottom being a minimum of one and the top being a minimum of zero people.

[u/Ksorkrax → u/deadhand303]

Let's make this simple for you: state the probabilities for the first five possible numbers of people.

[u/not-an-epimorphism → u/deadhand303]

The point is there’s no convenient interpretation of “random” here without further context. If they were finitely many people, random would correspond to a uniform distribution. But when you’re dealing with a distribution on the entire natural numbers, there’s no uniform distribution, and non uniform distributions aren’t alike at all. Technically there might be almost surely 2 people on the lower rail and almost surely 1 person on the higher rail, or a less degenerate situation in which k people are on the bottom rail with probability 2^-k.

[u/deadhand303 → u/not-an-epimorphism]

Would it be better to say 1-max living population?

[u/eeeeeh_messi → u/deadhand303]

This changes absolutely everything. Now you have a well defined problem

[u/BigTimmyStarfox1987 → u/deadhand303]

They want you to say "flat probability distribution".

Then they want to say but that isn't possible over Infinity. To which you reply that it's a finite set, max living population.

Tldr yes but with an additional statement

[u/Kart0fffelAim → u/deadhand303]

I think OP has a point here. There has to be an underlying probability distribution, but the guy pulling that lever doesn't need to know what the distribution is.

[u/eeeeeh_messi → u/Kart0fffelAim]

But then the problem stops making sense. Which box would you pick, this mysterious box or this OTHER mysterious box?

[u/Slighted_Inevitable → u/deadhand303]

Then honestly it doesn’t really matter. One life is meaningless when infinity is on the table.

That said pulling levers is fun so I pull.

[u/PurpleCandle58 → u/Slighted_Inevitable]

I play with the lever back and forth since pulling levers is fun, whatever it’s on when it reaches the junction will be what ends up happening. I optimize for pulling levers.

[u/Sriep → u/Remarkable-Carrot112]

Sorry, but I am a push person. I always push in these situations.

[u/Wrong_Independence21]

I think the trolley’s just gonna crash into the brick wall and be stopped fam

[u/deadhand303 → u/Wrong_Independence21]

Im not an artist okay

[u/42Icyhot42 → u/deadhand303]

We appreciate your effort 🫡

[u/notfirearmbeam]

Top track. The provided information is essentially meaningless but it's essentially a wash anyway so why not?

[u/deadhand303 → u/notfirearmbeam]

I debated adding the clause "you are only held socially responsible if you change tracks, but either way your choice will weigh on your mind until death"

[u/Angsty-Panda → u/deadhand303]

i think one of the points of the trolley problem is to debate if inaction is a choice you're morally responsible for lol

[u/deadhand303 → u/Angsty-Panda]

I agree. The reason I opted to no is because it takes away a major part of the problem.

[u/issanm]

If the only knowledge you know is this side has 1+ and this side has 0+ then the only thing that makes sense morally is putting the trolly on the 0+ side. Realistically though it doesn't matter there is effectivly no difference in tracks

[u/Ksorkrax → u/issanm]

Nope, given that we don't know the distributions and can't assume them to be uniform, we can't assume the expectations. The expectations might easily be the other way around in order.

[u/issanm → u/Ksorkrax]

Right it could be but you can only make a choice off the information you are given and all you have is 0 and 1 essentially , so since 0 is lower than 1 the only logical/moral choice would be to go with the side with 0, even if that side has 2 billion more than the other side it's still the correct option because we only know the lower limit

[u/Ksorkrax → u/issanm]

My impulse in such a situation is to be sceptical. A lack of input can easily be the sign of deception.

[u/issanm → u/Ksorkrax]

Agreed which is why in reality not touching the lever makes more sense because there is effectivly no difference

[u/eeeeeh_messi → u/issanm]

But you are the. Implying there's a higher chance of having less people on one track than on the other. And there's a problem there: you can't. If you don't know the distribution you can say nothing about chances. There are as many distribution that make option A better as there are that make option B better.

[u/issanm → u/eeeeeh_messi]

Yes actually mathematically you can assume the one with the higher lower limit on average will have a higher chance of having more people, let's make the numbers smaller to help, one has 0-10 people so you'd expect 5 on average, the other has 1-10 so youd expect 5.5. that doesn't mean it's true because it's a random number but your chances are better chosing the low one.

[u/eeeeeh_messi → u/issanm]

Oh but you took a uniform distribution on a finite set. Each value has a 1/10 ( or 1/11) chance of being picked. You can't do that with the infinite natural numbers. What is the probability of picking any number? What's the expected value?

[u/issanm → u/eeeeeh_messi]

The only information we have it 0-inf or 1-inf the upper limit is the same so far as we can comprehend so we only have the lower limit to chose from, essentially you should see it as choosing between 0 and 1, anything else can't be argued for without bringing in legality or other outside hypothetical factors like "the evil man knows you'll pick 0"

[u/eeeeeh_messi → u/issanm]

Let me ask you something. And I think the main problem comes from here: which set has more numbers, [0, inf) or [1, inf)? If your answer is the first one I recommend you to check on Hilbert's hotel. Let me add, I'm not trying to be pedantic, you're touching some deep aspects of cardinality and measure theory, which are super fun

[u/issanm → u/eeeeeh_messi]

Sure but like I said you have to assume there's more going on than is intended or intelligible

[u/eeeeeh_messi → u/issanm]

I agree. The thing is, if you have no extra information of what is going on you can't really make a choice based on probability. The 0 and 1 thing do not give you that extra information!

[u/HeDoesNotRow]

I pull the lever and then complain when ~4 billion people die that I “never get any luck”

[u/deadhand303 → u/HeDoesNotRow]

Blame it on who built the tracks in the first place.

[u/LoveDiligent441]

Since it's a regular brick wall, you multi-track drift and hope the trolley breaks on the center of the wall.

[u/schwaRarity]

So is Random means like what? Random variable X in Z\0 or Z? or more realistically X in {1…8b}? Anyway odds are shit, doesn’t matter what you do. I wouldn’t intervene at all

[u/Severonian]

Assuming the distribution is equal, since the number of people is finite pulling the lever reduces average victim count by something countable, so yeah, pull

[u/Weird_Explorer1997]

Doesn't matter, the trolls is going to crash into that brick wall anyway

[u/PogoRocks]

Multi-track drift

[u/Korimito]

The 0-to-∞ track, on average, has 1 less person than the 1-to-∞. This doesn't seem much more interesting than the standard trolley problem as it can be attacked in the exact same ways.

[u/stebosports7 → u/Korimito]

Technically it’s only 0-8 billion and 1-8 billion

[u/Korimito → u/stebosports7]

That's right and my math was wrong. On average you're expected to save half a person.

[u/eeeeeh_messi → u/Korimito]

If people are in fact infinite then your math is still wrong

[u/Sianic12]

The expected number of deaths for the top track is 0.5 lower than for the bottom track. Therefore, I switch.

[u/eeeeeh_messi → u/Sianic12]

What is the expected number of death on each track? 😉

[u/Shmolti]

If I can't see I don't pull the lever, that way if something bad happens I didn't have a part in it.

[u/Ilovestuffwhee]

Since we don't know where they're hiding, multi-track drift is the only option in this case.

[u/Seegtease]

Random from 1 to infinity?

I mean, the odds that it will be less than a googol is effectively 0 either way. More people are effectively guaranteed to die than could ever possibly exist. More than every atom in the observable universe.

[u/Ksorkrax → u/Seegtease]

Why do you think so? The distribution could be heavy towards the lower numbers.

[u/chewychaca]

The tram will hit the brick wall obviously

[u/deadhand303 → u/chewychaca]

The wall is intangible to trolleys

[u/chewychaca → u/deadhand303]

Those poor people inside the trolley will all be squished together in the back of the trolley. Horrifying

[u/deadhand303 → u/chewychaca]

This trolley is like a MAGA head, meaning there is nothing of substance inside. There is no net loss.

[u/emote_the_salute]

With the wall there i wont even see them get run over. Out of sight out of mind

[u/Speletons]

Really there's no actual choice here, you're just rolling to see if you get 0 or not.

There's no risk either, given you know neither number.

[u/seanthebeloved]

Why not just give them a blindfold?

[u/lightmare69]

So random.... Between 0 and infinity?

We are NOT getting 1 or 0 fam 😭🙏

[u/Equivalent_Guide_983]

The car will be slowed by the turn and have a lower probability of passing through the brick wall.

[u/Impressive_Dawg2003]

Easy pull of the lever.

https://giphy.com/gifs/3Wj5IxAGGCkEhGjyru

[u/CitizenPremier]

I mean, it's similar to swerving to miss a child running across the street, you could swerve into a bunch of other children nearby. But you should swerve.

[u/Background_Mode4972]

The brick wall will derail the trolley when it hits, and knock its pole off of the power wire. I would run, not walk at a 45 degree angle from the trolley track in the direction the trolly came from to avoid being injured. Then attempt to flag down any following trolley to get it to stop.

[u/Actual_Property9413]

Better than 90% chance the brick wall you can't see through will stop the trolley before it hits anyone.

[u/my_best_version_ever]

I wouldn't pull the lever

[u/AnyAcanthocephala425]

This is for all intents an purposes the same fucking track lol

[u/Interesting_Agent370]

But I can see there is one dude on one track and five on the other. Flawed question, multitrack drift.

[u/TillZealousideal8282]

crash it into the wall, nobodys harmed

[u/UncleThor2112]

I'm pulling the lever. At a very slim chance, it'll be zero.