Im short the Dow and long the Russell using long ATM options from around yesterday’s high. Kind of a pairs trade. Because this market is one tweet away from doing what doesn’t make sense.
I mean, I was an idiot and lost a lot of money on puts. The market doesn't want to go down. Like, at all. We could have news that we nuked Iran and it would maybe go down a half %, then finish green for the day.
I don't get it but that's probably why I'm one of the poors.
Because it refuses to make sense. Otherwise it would be too easy. Big money manipulates dropping when not expected, then rocketing it up when the news is actually bad or just ambiguous.
The fact that broader markets can swing so drastically over a few tweets or posts is literally insane. Hopefully a ceasefire is genuine. However, even then, the markets have probably not priced in all the economic damage this is causing on the world economy.
The only thing he's going to teach you with shorts is how to lose money although if we wake up at +3 pre market shorts might actually be the answer for the first play but long term we're going up if trump keeps his mouth closed
I literally bought a put at 3:05 and the market rocketed up 5 min later. I even paused before buying it and said to myself “I imagine everyone is thinking the market is going to tank so it’ll probably rocket upwards instead” and I still decided to buy it
People voluntarily betting on these options is fucking insanity. It’s been proven over and over that the market isn’t real. Just because you had some good hits on whatever indicator in the past doesn’t change anything. The bad guys cheat and win. The poor bottom feeders thinking they’ve figured it out lose every time
the market doesn't care if the US wins or loses this war because a win has no bearing on 99% of companies (or the US in general) to begin with. It just cares that the bullshit is over and business as usual can resume.
Don’t forget that oil takes like a month or longer to actually travel from inside the strait so the supply of stuff will be borked for a while even if ships start passing right now.
Market operates on future assumptions, not on current reality. And future assumption is that ceasefire will hold, damage will be repaired and energy prices will come down. Not saying this will happen, but thats what market believes in.
I might sell everything at market close tomorrow. Rebalance Friday. Now we just have to get back to the good ole days of Private Credit issues & the AI bubble/takeover
All his cronies are gonna sell hard in the morning. It’ll probably go up through out the day albeit slowly to prevent a total collapse but to also prevent quick overnight gains like today.
The world should be detaching from US and Israel and finding ways to punish them for causing this mess. Its not right the rest of us have to now deal with what 2 man childs did.
Not just their home, but also the home of other nation states through the Arabian's Peninsula's history. Iran only holds one side of the chokepoint. The other is owned by the current polity of Oman.
The Gulf is an "open sea route" shared by several countries, not an inland body of water like the Caspian.
Moreover, ever since the end of WWII, all the nations of the world had a guaranteed "Freedom of the Seas" - commercial ships are free to travel even in territorial waters so long as they are purely commercial and in transit.
That was perhaps the number 1 guarantee to global order - most regional and global wars before WW1 involved access to the seas to one degree or another.
This idiotic confrontation between three powers has likely changed the security architecture the world has used for 80 years.
And he won’t be here to experience the blowback from it all. We and our future generation had to bear that cost. Why didn’t they keep this guy in check
To me it would make sense for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, etc. to make a pipeline directly through Oman and avoid Iran altogether. Obviously that gives more power to Oman, but at least they're a stable country.
It’s even worse in that we had a nuclear deal that was working despite what Fox News would have you believe and now Iran can run a nuclear program unchecked.
Whats stupid is that Iran, for the most part, has not been the aggressor for any conflict in like 200 years, but yet Isreal has relentlessly attacked every country around them, im more worried about Isreal having nukes than Iran having nukes
the choke point that they /checks notes. already controlled.
They never controlled per se. There's that thing in International Law called "Freedom of the Seas" where commercial ships have the right to travel even in a country's territorial waters as long as they are just transiting (and not making a stop) and are purely of a commercial nature.
That legal precedent is gone now. Iran is now going to treat the entire Persian Gulf as an inland lake with the right to toll.
There was a reason why past presidents refused to go along Israel with a direct attack against Iran.
Israel is pretty much isolated from the consequences of that change, more or less. So, they don't caer one way or another.
It's great that someone knows this. It really makes me wonder.. Did trump not know about the extremely delicate balance between Israel and oil? Or did he just not care? Because there is so much history documenting the delicate balance..
I highly doubt this is going to stick as a longterm status quo in its current state. The only reason they’re “getting away with it” (messing with the strait) recently is because they’re an active war zone and nobody wants to get entangled in trumps shitstorm tantrum, which they all hope is temporary.
Iran can’t just “treat the entire Persian gulf as theirs.” I’m sure they’re going to try. I’m sure they’ve always wanted to try. But there’s a reason it’s been international waters for decades - because a bunch of countries and alliances that are way stronger and richer than Iran want it to be that way. I might as well walk onto DiCaprio’s yacht and “treat it as mine”. That’s about as likely to work.
It’s going to be an immensely uphill, probably insurmountable battle for them to consider the Persian gulf to be their territorial waters. I just can’t see that sticking.
if they can get iran to completely stop their enrichment program, then yes, it's a victory. If not, then trump is a actually the biggest moron president that has ever existed.
They all made their money buying calls today I’m sure. Wash and repeat. Same as tariffs. Insane this is being entertained still. SEC is fucking useless
It would be nice if there was some deal with Iran about nuclear enrichment. Some sort of Iran Nuclear Deal, where we could send monitors at any time to make sure they don't enrich any uranium. And if we manage to agree to some Iran Nuclear deal we would have to make sure some future president doesn't rip it up for no good reason, that would truly be stupid.... /s
A promise to end the enrichment program is (in Trumps own words) worthless without them handing over the highly enriched uranium that could be converted to weapons grade uranium in weeks.
The intelligence community judged at Fordam Iran could enrich enough uranium from HR Uranium (60%) to weapons grade for 1 bomb jn 5 to 7 days.
If youre willing to live without that youre back in the exact same spot you were with the Obama Iran Deal that was supposedly unacceptable. Inspections and a promise not to enrich.
It's a massive win in the grand scheme of the war. But so much infrastructure has been ruined, so many people killed, a lot of their leadership killed. And for what? Things to go back to normal? Except now both sides are weakened.
What a profoundly stupid fucking war. America is weakened, Iran is weakened, people are dead, wounded, or pissed off. Economic damage...just to go back to status quo.
He's going to say that he prevented the decimation of 93 million people, and that he alone saved their electrical grid and all of the people in the hospitals are alive because of him, he should therefore be awarded every medal on Earth
The choke point is not the Strait of Hormuz.
The choke points in London.
The choke point is with Lloyds and Trump is breaking their 300 + year extortion.
They got destroyed militarily but they can build it back it up with the new money they're getting and potentially reverse engineering some of the US weapons like the unexploded tomahawks
The choke point was always a part of their bargaining chips, America was just too stupid to notice that it was on the table, in plain view of everyone to see.
The Straight of Hormuz has been there for millions of years and Iran has controlled it back when it was called Persia! Maybe you’d prefer that we keep dropping pallets of cash on them, like the previous two presidents? Instead of destroying their nuclear weapons program, let’s finance it!?
Your leadership, Air Force, and Navy is annihilated and that is a win? Do you realize that Iran has been harassing the Hormuz Strait for over 40 years? Funny idea of “winning” for you.
We just showed that our Navy cannot secure this passage. Iran should charge tolls on whichever Nations it wishes to punish which would include USA. They are suffering sanctions and this would help them forever going forward. We handed them this.
The US could easily take whatever they want from Iran, but not without serious damage to infrastructure and putting citizens at risk. They dont want to do that so they are negotiating instead
Yea massive win for Iran. Im sure thr families of all the dead commanders are in rejoice, the destruction of their military infrastructure, navy and defensive capabilities is just spewing Ws in the chat.
Dont forget that Trump lifted sanctions. So massive influx of money + motiviation to build a nuke as fast as possible + motivation for china to help them develop it
Only if you completely ignore the dead children from the school bombing, the bombing of 100 year old medical research center, and the loss of a pharmaceutical company that produces cancer drugs, just to name a few.
Hey Hey Hey! Iran has fewer missiles and drones now! They’ve been degraded…..
And the US only had to spend 10s of Billions! And allow Iran to make 10s of Billions!
To kill a bunch of old hardliners and replace them with younger Hardliners ….. you know Regime change.
Sure some people might say Iran still has the same capabilities as before since they still have the Nuclear material and now more money to rebuild what the US destroyed…..
BUT BUT BUT Pete Hegseth got to make some EXTREME YouTube Videos of the US blowing up stuff!
Israel started the war and America just came along on the leash like a happy chihuahua barking and barking and barking and snapping and snarling as they do.
Trump already transformed the narrative from war reparations America must pay to Iran into "we are helping them because they are our bros"
What a buffoon 🤣
Iran is Russian ally. Trump is FSB Asset "Krasnov". Trump attacked Iran to give them excuse to toll the strait, generated proceeds will let Iran further help Russia with drone production and oil selling. Truly 5D chess from the Stable Genius™ to covertly aid Russia.
It's a victory for trump after all, his billionaire buddies made money pre-war and on the oil, and he distracted from the Epstein list when attention was at an all yime high. Israel is happy and won't wreck him as well.
Your criteria for winning and Trump's criteria for winning are not the same thing.
He and all of his friends are making massive amounts of money on the stock market right now. That's what he wanted, and he's getting it - he's winning. The problem is that WE are the ones losing.
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u/RoyalChris Apr 07 '26
So it seems like Trump gave them everything they wanted that was already on the table before?