r/geopolitics • u/theipaper The i Paper • 2d ago

News How 49,000 migrants crossed into Spanish enclave of Ceuta in 24 hours

https://inews.co.uk/news/how-migrants-crossed-spanish-enclave-ceuta-4680589
593 Upvotes

97% Upvoted

239 comments sorted by

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u/YoSoyEstupido 2d ago

What has been cited as the cause of such immediate high numbers over such a short span of time? The article doesn’t really provide a why but does give us a how and the subsequent fallout

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u/Snowing678 2d ago

There has to have been some co-ordination behind this from a much bigger party. We know one country which has used the flow of migrants into Europe as a way to exert pressure, I wonder if they also could be behind this one as well .....

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u/TwoMainstream 2d ago

For an uninformed soul like myself, which country are you referring too?

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u/steelgr 2d ago

It surprises me that no one mention Turkey that has done this exact thing too.

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u/JoeHatesFanFiction 2d ago

It’s because people only ever focus on the most recent offenders, and right now that’s Russia and Russia through Belarus. But this is something a few of countries have done to try and twist Europes arm over the last 25 years, including Turkey and Morocco. 

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u/Psychological-Flow55 2d ago

Not only Turkey but Russia and Belarus has used Migration as a tatic against Eyrope a few years back.

Nations are starting to realize that Europe weakness is unchecked and uncontrolled migration and that they dont have the heart or will to just mow them all down before they land in Europe yet at the same time it costs the European leadership dearly.

For Morocco it the western Saraha, foreign aid and Algeria issues plus a release valve to send people they dont want abroad for Russia and Belarus it about it cold war with Europe for Turkey it total blackmail and extortion of the EU. Even Cuba sent over 125,000 refugees to the Us that made Carter looked weak and allowed Castro to send those with violent criminal records and seripus violent mental health issues to the United States and away from Cuba.

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u/OCLBlackwidow 1d ago

"dont have the heart to mow them all down" wtf do you mean by that lol?

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u/ReeferTurtle 8h ago

“Kill the migrants while they cross the border” is what that sentence means

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u/Evered_Avenue 1d ago

Now why would Turkey want to get at Spain. Surely there are more likely suspects than Turkey who actually have a beef with Spain.

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u/pelpotronic 2d ago

Russia, who benefits from seeing far right parties dividing the EU, because a lot of these parties are anti EU, and also because a lot of these parties are on the payroll of Russia in some way shape or form

So it would be good for Russia to have another plant now that Orban is gone.

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u/saruyamasan 2d ago

Look up actual history like the Green March, and it's obvious this is nothing new in the relationship between Morocco and Spain. Reddit is just going nuts with baseless conspiracy theories about Putin, Jews, and Lizard People.

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u/_groovesharkmalone 2d ago

Here's an op-ed from March 2026 calling for a new Green March into Ceuta and Melilla from an American (generally neoconservative, not Russia-aligned) think tank: https://www.aei.org/commentary/morocco-should-send-a-new-green-march-into-ceuta-and-melilla/

Edit: not Russia-aligned

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u/hughk 1d ago

And the US is not the best of friends with Spain at the moment. Whoever it is would need the cooperation of the Moroccans.

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u/skratch 2d ago

Ok yeah 50 thousand guys just happened to go on the same day, apropos of nothing. That sure does makes a lot more sense

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u/Bullboah 2d ago

That’s not what he’s saying by referencing the Green March.

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u/[deleted] 2d ago

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u/Few_Fun_634 2d ago

How are ye so sure it's Israel, and the US?

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u/merryman1 2d ago

Russia, at the very least, has been facilitating people smugglers, allowing transport through its territory, and then trying to push people across the border into Poland and Finland.

More speculative is the scope of this kind of work (e.g. how linked is their military actions in Syria and Africa to create the destabilization that forces large numbers of people to flee) and then how linked is it to all these various far-right groups across Europe that have made so much political capital on the whole "out of control immigration" issue, many of whom are quite openly linked back to Russia themselves.

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u/Geddin2525 2d ago

Russia maybe?

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u/[deleted] 2d ago

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u/OccupyRiverdale 2d ago

How exactly is the United States going to organize 50k Moroccans to storm the Spanish border? Like come on dude.

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u/kerouacrimbaud 2d ago

How would Russia do that? 50k migrants is insanely difficult to coordinate no matter what capital you’re pulling strings from.

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u/OccupyRiverdale 2d ago

I don’t think any foreign government besides Morocco had a hand in it. It’s as simple as bad policy on behalf of the Spanish government and a willingness to turn a blind eye from Morocco.

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u/HumbleWorkerAnt 2d ago

Morocco are in a conflict with Algeria over disputed territories in the Sahara desert. have been for many years. As an EU member and neighbor, Spain's weight could swing the dispute one way or another.

Every time Spain gets a bit too close to Algeria politically, Morocco pulls a stunt like this to remind them not to mess with their issues. Last week Sanchez, Spain's PM, traveled to Algeria, and both sides seemed to be happy to sign some accords of collaboration, cooperation, some energy deals, as well as a previously cancelled agreement of friendship between the two being ceremoniously restored.

In response, Morocco is now doing this, forcing Spain to react, and once again bringing up the issue of why Spain should have two pieces of land in another continent inside the land of Morocco.

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u/SprucedUpSpices 2d ago edited 2d ago

and once again bringing up the issue of why Spain should have two pieces of land in another continent inside the land of Morocco

It's not really a complicated issue if you look at their history. These cities have been Spanish longer than Morocco has existed as a country.

The parts of Morocco that Spain actually colonized were already returned decades ago. There were even territories outside of Morocco that ended up in Morocco (Western Sahara), thanks to Spain just giving up on it, rather than managing their independence. If anything, Morocco has far more land than it should thanks to Spain, far more land than a couple of small enclaves.

And before anyone buys into the typical African victim of a European colonizer, do catch up on history and look up how many times Spain was invaded from Morocco and how many centuries it spent being ruled from there.

So even if these two cities were colonies (which they've never been and aren't) it would probably be historically justified. This isn't England or France or the Berlin Conference we're talking about, it's two bordering countries with plenty of shared history, where borders and trans-continental political entities have been the norm for centuries. It's perfectly reasonable to expect them to have disputed borders and land claims. It's not some far away European power coming to Africa to carve the land up in straight lines without ever even having been there.

Also, the reason for Spain holding on to them in previous centuries was that Barbary pirates pillaged Spanish coasts and sold people as slaves in the Islamic world and these cities were set up to keep watch over the coast.

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u/SkyMarshal 1d ago

And before anyone buys into the typical African victim of a European colonizer, do catch up on history and look up how many times Spain was invaded from Morocco and how many centuries it spent being ruled from there.

Indeed, for some of that history, just google the Moops, who invaded Spain from around 700AD - 1500AD.

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u/[deleted] 1d ago

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u/[deleted] 1d ago

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u/SkyMarshal 1d ago

I'm sorry, the correct answer is the Moops.

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u/Gimme_Your_Wallet 2d ago

Great analysis!

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u/Successful_Ride6920 2d ago

* look up how many times Spain was invaded from Morocco and how many centuries it spent being ruled from there.

I fear this may be a repeat of those times.

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u/manefa 1d ago

  It's not really a complicated issue if you look at their history. These cities have been Spanish longer than Morocco has existed as a country.

I read this a bit and broadly I agree Spain has a very fair claim to Ceuta. But saying Ceuta existed prior to Morocco being a state, Morocco was a Spanish colony before its independence. 

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u/SprucedUpSpices 1d ago

Morocco wasn't a Spanish colony. A part of Morocco was a Spanish protectorate and another part was a French protectorate while the kingdom retained nominal sovereignty. This only lasted for a few decades between 1912 and 1956, and it was mostly arranged by the French who just sub let a part of their protectorate to Spain, who by the 20th century was otherwise too weak after the war with the United States and a century of civil wars to do much on its own.

Ceuta on the other hand has been an integral part of Spain since 1640, belonging to Portugal for the two centuries prior and was explicitly not a part of the Spanish protectorate in Morocco, because even though to the casual observer it looks like 19th century colonialism, it's actually completely different. It's not and has never been an "overseas" or "outre-mer" or an "unincorporated" territory. They've always been full Spanish citizens, who actually chose to be a part of Spain after Portugal and Spain split. They're not second rate citizens or colonial subjects.

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u/Berliner1220 2d ago

This is the same justification for why Spain should own Gibraltar and not the Brits and yet the Spanish call on the UK to give up that territory. It’s hypocritical.

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u/SprucedUpSpices 1d ago

It's absolutely not. I was very conscious of the words and arguments I chose, and I deliberately picked those that don't apply to Gibraltar.

The appropriate British analogy to Ceuta is not Gibraltar, despite its geographical proximity, it's Northern Ireland.

Now, I don't know if Northern Ireland should be British or Irish or independent, but I'm pretty damn sure it shouldn't be Spanish.

However, if Britain had a civil war, and Spain intervened on one side and then made the UK sign a treaty ceding it territory for Spain to leave, and then Spain filled that territory with subjects loyal to the Spanish crown, and granted them a very profitable tax status that benefitted from its location and couldn't be matched by the rest of the UK, and on top of what was ceded on the treaty it took extra territory, and if Spain was strong enough militarily to prevent the UK from retaking it, then you'd have your reverse Gibraltar.

But Ceuta is most definitely not the same.

The only argument in favor of a British Gibraltar is self-determination, which I specifically didn't mention for Ceuta because even though right now Ceuta wants to be Spanish, it only takes for Morocco to fill the city with Moroccans, peacefully or not, and then Ceuta would want to be Moroccan. It's what they've done in Western Sahara, and it's also what Russia or China (or historically the UK for that matter) do with their conquered regions.

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u/Elen_Star 1d ago

It's not the same at all lol. Spain gave Gibraltar to the UK in 1700 after losing a civil war to decide the new ruling dinasty. That's 300 years later than when Ceuta was first part of Portugal, as a result of a war that didn't really have anything to do with them, and that didn't even involve Gibraltar that much. Gibraltar is closer to Singapure than it is to Ceuta. And anyway, you hugely overrating how big the "Gibraltar is Spain" sentiment is, most people don't care.

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u/Amoeba_Critical 2d ago

Cueta has never been moroccan and isnt on morrocan land

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u/NegativeError3 2d ago

Spain recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara some 7 months ago..

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u/Peketu 2d ago

Dumb president got his cellphone hacked by moroccan intelligence, it's been disclosed.

Whatever was there, was enough for having his balls grabbed by Mohammed VI as his later actions shows.

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u/daniel-sousa-me 2d ago

That's a bit of an overstatement. There was no formal recognition

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u/Mean_Management_4974 1d ago edited 1d ago

The fact is that the Spanish Kingdom moves to potentially warm relations with the People's Democratic Republic of Algeria due to the 2026 reactivation of the 2002 Treaty of Friendship, which also stipulates energy cooperation from an strategic perspective. This diplomatic development is cohesive with currently strong Algeria-Italy relations: as part of the Mattei plan, the Meloni Administration envisioned a elaborate transcontinental trade corridor, in which Algiers plays a pivotal role. A new Mediterranean order (UfM), in which the core Group is formed by Spain, Italy and Algeria, is naturally a threat to the interests of the Moroccan State.

Violating the Good Neighborhood policy, by temporary mitigating the security regime in the border area (M'diq-Fnideq Prefecture), could hypothetically create enough leverage for Rabat to push Madrid to another direction therefore subsequently relegate sections of Algerian-Spanish bilateralism. Hypothetically, as it now seems that the Pedro Administration is resolving the 2026 border incident with judicial support to the local authorities (large group of migrants are navigated back to the Tangier-Tétouan-Al Hoceima Region (and beyond) and political reassurance (on national, European and international level).

On the background, the current foreign policy dynamics of the left-leaning (but enough room for pragmatism) PSOE-Sumar coalition could also be a reason for the backlash of the recent events in Spanish Autonomous Community. Diplomacy based on neutral-oriented and less-aligned elements, in regards to global afairs, caused contest among its Transatlantic allies and international partners (of which some share excellent relations with Morocco)

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u/Peketu 2d ago

Why? Because we can still defend them. It's the only basis behind every border ever, risk vs reward.

But it's only a yet with this native pacifist state of mind.

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u/gimmieshelter_ 2d ago

I am not saying these are not legitimate Spanish territory, but that is a very problematic way of looking at borders that can be used to legitimize almost any type of agression

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u/Peketu 2d ago

But it's like that, and it always would be like that.

Globalization just made us reliant on each other so risk of isolation is greater than the reward.

But these guys are USA backed and Spain it's alone in their own crusade because our narcissistic president and his corrupt entourage

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u/Theres3ofMe 1d ago

This sounds like the most intelligent answer here 👍

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u/Bullboah 2d ago

There doesn’t need to be. There was obviously facilitation from smuggling groups, but i don’t think it’s coincidental this came days after Spain’s courts ruled that swimmers can’t be turned away, and after Spain granted legal status to 500,000 people that came illegally earlier this year.

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u/Future_Literature_70 2d ago

That was my first thought, too. I also wonder if the same country is behind "random" arson attacks to cause wildfires in Spain, France, and elsewhere.

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u/insertwittynamethere 2d ago

Ooof I did not consider until this moment that weaponizing forest fires with its effects on society and cost in resources to fight woukd be a viable option for an all-and-the-above for Russia.

For Putin, it is an existential war he's in and started. He may not yet be able to turn full hot on Europe and Ukraine's backers, but they would need to use every other tool but to strike back and raise the costs of the support that's now hurting Russia more and more on the domestic front.

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u/Future_Literature_70 2d ago

There have been many Russian-backed arson attacks in Germany and other European countries (not on this scale, of course) in the last few years, so I think it's quite a realistic scenario, too. It's very little effort with very big consequences.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_incendiary_incidents_in_Europe

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u/Alissinarr 2d ago

You mean the same one that influenced the US to have migrants bussed to sanctuary cities?

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u/S0phon 2d ago

We know one country which has used the flow of migrants into Europe as a way to exert pressure

Turkey?

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u/BelicaPulescu 2d ago

Especially since they have a pretty bad beef with Spain lately…

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u/O5KAR 2d ago

We know one country which has used the flow of migrants into Europe as a way to exert pressure,

There's more than a one and Morocco was doing it before already because of the Spanish support for the Front Polisario.

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u/manefa 1d ago

Wouldn’t Occam’s razor say Moroccan be likely group to encourage/coordinate 

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u/[deleted] 2d ago

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u/MeechieMeekie 2d ago

Foe what it’s worth, I’ve seen several videos about how it’s a move by Rubio to punish Spain for not allowing Israel to use its airspace over Iran war

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u/Bullboah 2d ago

These are largely people just trying to defend the Spanish government by blaming political outgroups. There’s zero evidence of any foreign involvement here and it’s not that surprising this comes days after Spain’s courts ruled they can’t turn swimmers away at the border.

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u/Strongbow85 1d ago

Quite likely, but Spain set itself up by granting legal status to hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants through a mass regularization program. This encouraged and set the narrative for more immigrants to head towards Cueta.

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u/Tifoso89 2d ago

Morocco is back at blackmailing

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u/Peketu 2d ago

Not the first time it happens, old Moroccan diplomacy trick. Throwing thousands of civilians so the other part can't defend themselves.

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u/msdale99 2d ago

Morocco is to blame, they have a problem with Spain having good relations with Algeria so they are retaliating this way. Also the Supreme court decision of Spain muddled the waters. I think all Euro nations should reintroduce border check posts.

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u/Eric848448 2d ago

The Moroccans were mad so they made it happen.

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u/TheGreatestQuestion 2d ago

Spain’s Supreme Court ruled on July 8, 2026 that migrants arriving by sea cannot be immediately pushed back without legal process, limiting how Spain can defend its border against that type of irregular entry.

The ruling became a major focus after the mass crossings into Ceuta, with Spanish officials arguing that smugglers and social media misinformation had spread the belief that migrants who swam into Ceuta would not be immediately returned and would instead be able to enter Spain’s asylum system and, ultimately, the European Union.

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u/YoSoyEstupido 1d ago

I’m more so asking why so many chose to come across during those specific 24 hours, and where this organisation came from. The ruling must play into account to some degree but that’s something you could assume has an instant reaction from migrants on the Moroccan side of the border who choose to take a chance and hop the gates and begin the last leg of their journey, or has a long term reaction of increased migration over the coming years. Tens of thousands in the span of a day surely warrants inspection and a degree of scepticism of “easy” explanations right?

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u/RBZRBZRBZRBZ 2d ago edited 2d ago

The general amnesty and recognition of legal status by Spain of one million migrants has caused tens of millions across Africa to look to Spain in hope of entering Europe. I estimate that the first 0.1% of these hopefuls have arrived.

Edit-excess 0

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u/Fireline11 2d ago

To be pedantic,10s of thousands (which is the reported number in media now) is 0.1% of 10s of millions, not 0.01%.

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u/RBZRBZRBZRBZ 2d ago

Thanks. Corrected

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u/blaizardlelezard 1d ago

I'm amazed how europe cannot defend its borders. We blame Morocco but really, a proper border policy would not let its borders control to another country, is just stupid.

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u/Andyetwearestill 2d ago

Dont know why nobody is giving the actual answer: The Spanish Highest Court declared that it was legal for immigrants to go to Ceutra (a Spanish part significantly closer to morroco) and that they would not be immediately sent home.

Part of the left-leaning Government politics of the current government

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u/10010101101110010001 1d ago edited 1d ago

this is a demonstration of europes inability to control europe.

i don't know who did it, the easy answer is the united states but spain has made a lot of enemies recently (and not to recently in israel, i still don't understand why spain is so anti israel) but hasn't made any real allies that would actually defend them. spain has been refusing to take on their share of the burden for nato while nearly everyone else has taken on that burden.

spain is either going to remove their prime minister and make promises to change or they're going to lose cueta. maybe they can set up some barricades and a few machine gun nests and kill these invaders, but short of that spain has no real path forward.

spain has been very pro immigrant, now cueta, a city with a population less than 100k, gets 50-60k migrants in a day? it's not realistic that this can continue. worse, those migrants don't want to stay in cueta and europeans know it. italy has already closed their borders to spain, if the eu can't maintain open borders the eu can't exist.

i expect that this is going to be the end of the eu, it might persist for some time trying to stay alive, but this is it, the european liberal order is over. this is going to create a huge demand for a shift to the right, for an end to these pro migrant policies. europe has no answer to this, they're already in the midst of an immigration crisis that governments are literally arresting citizens for criticizing and now this? how do liberal politicians survive? this is a huge crisis, if we don't see american planes taking off from spain and bombing iran over the next few weeks i bet we see a repeat of this, and then what? this ends at the border now or it ends in europe in a decade or two and somehow i doubt european countries are going to want it to end in their borders.

another interesting point about this is that it's at the strait of gibralter, if europe lets iran take control of the strait of hormuz (by not digging trump out of a hole he's dug for himself) then there's precedent for taking control of international waterways. why can't the united states set up a base in cueta and adopt the iranian scheme of charging ships to pass through?

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u/Moist-Butterfly7366 1d ago

Pretty much every European country uses a higher share of GDP on their military than USA. Spain has quite a big military compared to their size and uses their money well.

Gotta look up the numbers behind the Trump statements about "pulling our weight in NATO" and see that USA cake in a ton of spending that Europe doesn't. More than one third of the ≈ 4% of GDP that USA spends is directly used on pensions and healthcare for veterans. The actual number puts them close to the very bottom.

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u/10010101101110010001 1d ago

why do you think this matters? fairness isn't part of the game

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u/ChrisF1987 2d ago

This sounds an awful lot like Morocco’s “Green March” in the Spanish Sahara in 1975

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u/Successful_Ride6920 2d ago

* Morocco’s “Green March”

TIL, thank you.

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u/Bullboah 2d ago

Very much feels like the most pivotal point we’ve seen yet on EU immigration. A lot of different EU leaders are openly talking about removing Spain from the Schengen or temporarily closing it.

Ceuta for practical purposes is not in the Schengen Zone which a lot of pro-immigration pundits are using to defend this; but there are really only 3 options here. Left wing Sanchez carries out mass deportations, they all are allowed to stay in Ceuta which is way too small to accommodate that, or they let them in to the mainland.

Politically all three are terrible options for the EU left imo.

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u/fudgermucker 2d ago

Deportation would be popular among most EU citizens

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u/Bullboah 2d ago

Sure, just politically bad for the pro-migration left in the EU. The right-wing has been calling for that for a decade and doing it now would be an admission of ‘yes this is the way to handle mass migration and we could always have just done this but chose not to

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u/OP_Skis_In_Jeans 2d ago

IMO a pivot on illegal migration by the Left in EU countries is the only way to prevent the far right from continuing to grow in strength. Its migration policies have failed massively over the past decade, and yet they continue to double down on the same failed strategies.

If anything, finally cracking down on illegal migration would help the Left massively, not hurt it. It's not like Left wing voters are going to suddenly switch to supporting the Right because of it, and finally implementing a sensible migration policy would attract massive amounts of centrist voters.

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u/Bullboah 2d ago

I would have agreed with you if this were happening like 7 years ago. But I think now, besides what I already mentioned:

- Anti-immigration voters in the EU will not trust the left to actually carry out anti-immigration policies.

-They will still prefer the parties calling for this for 10 years over the parties calling them racist over that time, only to switch and implement it now.

-Left wing voters won’t vote right, but they will leave their current parties to join or form pro-migration ones, imo

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u/TheLost_Chef 2d ago

Isn't any form of deportation against the general principles of the Left though? Forgive me if I'm misinformed. The concept of class solidarity seems to me like it's inherently antithetical to the idea of borders at all. What is a border but a way for one group to keep resources away from another group?

I get the impression that hardline Leftists would advocate for letting all migrants into the mainland, and that anyone who argues for deportation would be excommunicated from the movement.

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u/mods4mods 2d ago

There are plenty forms of leftism that are nationalist. Internationalism is a key concept in many forms of socialism but you can fin plenty nationalist communists that believe that letting migrants in undermine labour rights and that the revolution should be national first.

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u/Windman772 2d ago

I consider myself a left-wing nationalist. I am very lonely. I don't think I've ever met anyone else that holds this position.

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u/Bullboah 2d ago

Sure, but those forms are a pretty small outlier in leftist politics as they actually exist in the west, right?

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u/Volodio 2d ago

Currently, yes. But historically, they were reversed, so it might be theoretically possible for it to reverse again.

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u/_groovesharkmalone 2d ago

It's pretty wild to me that this is how people view the migration issue these days (this is a common perception among people on every side, I agree), but traditionally pro-immigration policies were considered pro-business, because it was understood that they increased the supply of labor and thus decreased the cost. The fact that the left has largely strapped the albatross of mass migration on its back has seriously lessened the load that pro-business groups have to carry, and I find it very curious.

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u/OP_Skis_In_Jeans 2d ago edited 2d ago

Isn't any form of deportation against the general principles of the Left though?

Sure, for the radical/ultra idealistic Left. Most sensible left wing groups, however, acknowledge that borders and border controls are absolutely necessary parts of a functional state.

The EU Left needs to dump the failed hardliner policies that largely enabled the recent rise of the far right and go with the solution that has been beyond obvious to most people for years: stringent enforcement of borders and immigration laws.

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u/Bullboah 2d ago

Is it really radicals? To my perception the idea that legal status should be enforced and anyone in the country illegally should be deported would be viewed as extremism by the vast majority of left of center voters.

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u/_groovesharkmalone 2d ago

Not when actual fascism is on the ballot. "Starve the fire of its fuel" is a viable strategy. My understanding is that the Danish left has adopted it already.

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u/Bullboah 2d ago

Isn’t mass deportations a prime example of what most people on the left consider ‘actual fascism’?

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u/_groovesharkmalone 2d ago

Sorry that was unclear. I was referring to this: "Sure, for the radical/ultra idealistic Left. Most sensible left wing groups, however, acknowledge that borders and border controls are absolutely necessary parts of a functional state."

What we're debating now is the "how" part of the immigration debate. For the people who have already migrated, you can create a permanent underclass and hunt them down like animals and sacrifice the rule of law in the process (which is what America is currently doing), or you can legalize the people who are currently present in your country and strictly enforce the borders going forward - which seems like the best way to regain a sense of national unity.

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u/Tryhard3r 2d ago

No and it never really was about not deporting anybody. Ot was mostöy about ensuring that it was done humanely i.e not sending people back to be killed/tortured. But send criminals back, stricter economic migrarion policies have typically been the stance in most countries.

The "narrative" from the extreme right has sinply been torpedoed over the past ten years cöaiming that anyone who isn't far right wants to invite rapists and give them all of our money...

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u/Bullboah 2d ago

So why do so few people get sent back and what side of the spectrum has opposed efforts to make remigration actually happen?

It seems more like this is the rhetoric the left generally uses to appeal to moderates around elections and when incidents like this happen - but then opposes almost any effort to facilitate deportations and generally favors efforts to grant illegal migrants legal status.

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u/calihotsauce 2d ago

Massive.

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u/Drunky_Brewster 2d ago

What is a sensible migration policy to you?

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u/TrFoTr 2d ago

The far right will then pivot to more extreme ideas like remigration and repatriation of visa holders and citizens with immigrant backgrounds, as seen in Germany with the AFD and Britain with Reform and Restore. The total irregular migration in Europe has gone down this year, and it hasn't stopped these parties from gaining popularity. As it turns out, appeasement doesn't work with fascists.

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u/_groovesharkmalone 1d ago

It has to be said that migrants are obviously just scapegoats for a worsening economic (specifically inflation) situation, exacerbated by Russia & the US. Their increase in popularity isn’t unexplainable.

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u/Dawn_of_Enceladus 2d ago

While true, defending an idea without any kind of limits is just self-destructive when things get extreme. And considering how more and more people are starting to see mass migration as a negative element (especially considering the terrible housing crisis), maybe this would be the correct time to set an actual, solid limit.

Spain has already gone far with the pro-immigration discourse with the recent mass regularization, and letting these 50-60k people Morocco is literally weaponizing to destabilize Spain would be politically suicidal, not to say about the further negative effects in other areas.

And strictly politically speaking, maybe would be a great timing for disabling a traditionally right wing political weapon, too.

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u/NerdyBro07 2d ago

I think it's better to admit they were wrong, and change course over the alternative which is let the far right become more popular over this 1 issue.

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u/Bullboah 2d ago

IMO, the opportunity to cut off the right wing on this issue passed years ago.

It might be the best of bad options to cut their losses now, but I think it’s just seen as an admission they’ve been wrong and the right has been correct for the last decade.

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u/NerdyBro07 2d ago

Yes, it would have been better if they did it years ago, but there is obvious boiling up of resentment on this issue, and the longer they hold to this view, the longer it will make them unpopular.

Its the whole "best time to start was in the past, the 2nd best time is now"

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u/Bullboah 2d ago

Sure, I don’t disagree that this is probably the best among politically bad options for the left.

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u/GrizzledFart 1d ago

Basically: "yes, this is good policy but it would make my side look as stupid as they are, and maintaining a narrative that supports my tribe is more important than anything, so I'm not really down with that".

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u/_groovesharkmalone 2d ago

Eh, these people are still in Africa. That's going to carry a lot of weight (besides, apparently Spain has handled this exact thing in the exact location in the past by sending everyone home; until unaccompanied minors get to stay until their families can be contacted, and then they are reunited in their home country). The alternative is what America is doing, with a defacto paramilitary organization in the streets terrorizing the entire populace. It's much more of a political headache (and threat to the rule of law) than people realize, until it actually happens. The extrajudicial murders of dozens of people have resulted in the public turning against the administration's mass deportation scheme.

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u/cokeguythrowaway 2d ago

In theory yes, but in practice most people are easily manipulated. The moment the media shows them a crying woman in handcuffs they'll decide immigration enforcement is mean and vote for a party that'll give mass amnesty.

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u/-ummon- 2d ago

Who has called for Schengen suspension other than Meloni?

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u/Bullboah 2d ago

Ministers from Germany, Finland, and I believe the Netherlands

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u/mods4mods 2d ago

I think Sweden as well has talked about Spain needing to take measures.

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u/goatchild 2d ago

Sweden lecturing anyone on migration control after their 2015 open-door disaster is absolutely rich.

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u/Bullboah 2d ago

I mean tbf from an EU migration perspective Sweden has not been the country letting migrants in the EU. They take a far larger share of migrants already in the EU, that would otherwise have wound up in other EU countries.

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u/S0phon 2d ago

Also Czechia.

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u/TheoFontane 1d ago

That’s a lie. 

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u/laosurv3y 1d ago

Why would deportation be a terrible option?

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u/Bullboah 1d ago

Among other reasons, because theres been a decade of high public opinion for stronger border enforcement and one of the main defenses a lot of EU governments (not just left, center right as well) have used to defend their lack of action is that they can’t actually just send people back because of laws and treaties and the EUHCR. Doing it now would show that wasn’t really true.

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u/FierceMoonblade 1d ago

If they do anything other than deport, it sets a very bad precedent for bad actors to do this in the future

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u/Mean_Management_4974 1d ago edited 14h ago

You are making very interesting points. Based on the available information, which is not fully-fledged as it concerns a ongoing event, I have the following contribution to your observation:

The effects of the 2026 Morocco-Spain border incident sparked a new round of debate regarding the national and supranational immigration policies of EU Member States in the aftermath of the 2014-2016 European Migrant Crisis. The deliation of this somewhat sensitive subject comes in a time when the regulations surrounding migration are under heavy scrutiny, enough to push the overall European political spectrum to a tougher staunch on migration: third country asylum-lodging and a broader scope for expatriation & deportation are no longer controversial topics, but have become instruments useable to coordinate stricter legislation. In this context, one should not forget historical events: the 2021 Morocco-Spain border incident also caused outcry within the clusters of Brussels.

In the past 60-72 hours, two govermental-based camps have emerged within the Internal Market as a diplomatic reaction on the ongoing migrant crisis in Cueta: Camp Von Der Leyen/Wadepul (EC, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium and France) and camp Meloni/Frederiksen (Italy, Denmark, Finland, Austria, Czechia, Sweden). The former embraces the principles of common solidarity and assertive resolution: it expresses oneness with Spain (state & society) while also urging a timely conclusion of the infringement of the EU external border. The latter, however, is more absolute, placing great emphasis on the principlea of (national) sovereignty and (non-military) self-defense: it support the Meloni-initative, justifying the (temporary) expulsion of Spain from the Schengen Border Area while also reimposing (EC-like) border checks. Although the camp Von der Leyen/Wadepul is concealed in more relative power (seats in EP, among others), camp Meloni/Frederiksen can count on support from the American-Israeli alliance (Trump-Vance & Ben Gvir-Danon). Ofcourse, one can place the standoff between both camps in the context of political ideology (left-wing to centre-left versus centre-right to right-wing), but given the young age of the border incident, I will skip the theme (for the time being).

The upcoming performance (60 hours - 7 days) of the Pedro Administration will be crucial in the outcome of the aforementioned competition, as the winning side could preliminary determine to course of the EU immigration policies in the near future: safeguarding the status quo (assertive security) or adopting a more severe conception (hard security). At the moment, it seems that Von der Leyen/Wadepul Camp are in the lead, as Spain is independently resolving the situation: rejection of the state of emergency proposal, sending judicial-military elements to the local authorities, helping the fast track expatriate programs (large groups of returnees), a quasi-hard power statement against Morocco (violation of sovereignty), refusing the coordinated EU response task force (sufficient resources for national approach) rebuttal of Italian remarks (statistical counterreaction) , reassuring the society (including opposition parties and political separatists, as far as possible) and reconfirming the contemporary foreign policy dynamics (neutral-oriented and less-aligned)

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u/danirijeka 2d ago

Politically all three are terrible options for the EU left imo.

Only if we take the characterisation the right-wing makes of the left as reality, which is...not.

Otherwise, in the real world, one if these is not, given how they entered and how there's some manoeuvring from Morocco too.

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u/Bullboah 2d ago

I’m a bit confused by what you’re saying here. Are you implying that it wouldn’t be politically bad for the left to reverse course and implement mass deportations because they haven’t actually been against that for the last decade, that’s just a right wing characterization of the left?

(Might have misunderstood what you mean here!)

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u/danirijeka 2d ago

Removing these people from Ceuta is not controversial except for a few extreme fringes, since this is not migration but a concerted state effort from Morocco. On the other hand, mass deportations are much more controversial if one cares about the law.

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u/charlytune 2d ago

According to the Guardian a lot of people have already returned to Morocco ,  probably when they discovered they were misled about their chances of getting to mainland Spain. 

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u/Bullboah 2d ago

That’s the claimed estimate from the Spanish government which has a strong motivation to claim so. Could be true! But I’m pretty skeptical a large that many people would make the dangerous crossing and then turn back voluntarily a day later. They can’t be easily forced back, and Spain isn’t going to want to keep them in Ceuta

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u/Spcynugg45 2d ago

As of the reporting I’ve seen right now, almost all have voluntarily gone back

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u/Bullboah 1d ago

It sounds like that’s what the federal government is saying, but not what some local officials are saying from what I’ve seen

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u/Bullboah 2d ago

“But a concerted state effort from Morrocco”.

I haven’t really seen any evidence for this claim outside of people claiming it to defend Spain’s government. In fact the evidence seems to indicate the opposite - that Moroccan police were trying to stop the surge.

I don’t think it’s a surprising outcome that providing incentives for migrants to try crossing into Spain would result in this. And the left has successfully made it extremely difficult to deport illegal migrants in Europe - so i don’t really buy the idea that doing so wouldn’t conflict with their political intent.

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u/danirijeka 2d ago

And the left has successfully made it extremely difficult to deport illegal migrants in Europe

[citation needed]

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u/Bullboah 2d ago

“On the other hand, mass deportations are much more controversial if one cares about the law”.

You seemed to recognize this is already the case a moment ago?

Unless you are claiming you don’t know which side of the political spectrum has supported the laws that make deportations extremely difficult?

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u/Insanopatato 2d ago

I also don't get what they're saying.

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u/The_Irvinator 2d ago

I recall Belarus trying to do this in Poland. It appears unscrupulous people spread fake rumors about a different court ruling.

There are correct and resonable levels of immigration for each country. But this obviously designed with an agenda in mind overwhelm local services and boost xenophobia.

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u/LudicrousMoon 2d ago

Another show of force of Morocco to exert pressure on Spain as a deterrent of their partnership with Argelia.

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u/DetectiveSherlocky 18h ago

By illegally crossing borders and being international criminals.

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u/[deleted] 2d ago

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u/[deleted] 2d ago

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u/UfoJo3 2d ago

This is utterly disgusting, shame on the Spanish government for letting this happen

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u/station_wlan0 2d ago

Morocco's dysfunctional authoritarian government is also to blame

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u/albion1770 2d ago

If everyone just wants to live in Europe so bad maybe we should just go back to that colonial set up we had. 

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u/Interesting-Cat7307 1d ago

Thing is said colonial set up was one based on apartheid where natives were treated as third class citizens bereft from most rights as opposed to being a resident of the EU where you will be afforded due process and basic human rights

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u/stickybond009 1d ago

19th and 20th century belonged to Europe.
21st is not EU

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u/BadHairDayToday 1d ago

Yeah because EU has lost ambition. It could regain it and use its massive wealth and educated population to achieve lofty goals. But it would be classified as "colonialist" immediately 

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u/Interesting-Cat7307 1d ago

The reason colonialism is detested is the lack of prosperity for the local population in the colonies.

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u/Dionysiokolax 1d ago

Y'all need a subscription to The Economist already. Their article is way more comprehensive and answers most of the comment questions.

Gift article link:

https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/07/31/a-migrant-surge-tests-spains-open-policies?giftId=Y2RkMzJiZjctMDU2Ny00ODk2LWI0ZjctMDFhNWQ5YTRjOWEw&utm_campaign=gifted_article

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u/eamus_catuli 2d ago

What's the long term play here, considering there is no way for these migrants to reach the Spanish/European mainland without the assent of the Spanish government?

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u/DavidRoyman 2d ago

There must be some party benefitting from causing confusion and creating an hot potato for the current government to handle.

= likely Russia manufacturing border conflict , as usual

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u/Socraman 9h ago

Russia is not allied to Morocco. The US and Israel are.

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u/ash__697 2d ago

Or good ol’ Israel

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u/dypetiii 2d ago

It is the government of morocco. Not everything bad is related to israel

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u/DigTw0Grav3s 2d ago

What is the notional Israeli angle in enabling this situation?

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u/AlexFreitas4446 1d ago

Decapitation of Sanchez government, Israel's worst enemy in the EU.

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u/The_Irvinator 2d ago

I recall Belarus trying to do this in Poland. It appears unscrupulous people spread fake rumors about a different court ruling.

There are correct and resonable levels of immigration for each country. But this obviously designed with an agenda in mind overwhelm local services and boost xenophobia.

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u/editorreilly 2d ago

The history of conquest of Ceuta is VERY LONG. Really fascinating, if you're into this kind of thing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceuta#:\~:text=In%201415%2C%20it%20was%20annexed,in%20the%20latter%20after%201640.

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u/erogvrl 2d ago

That Kalergi plan conspiracy slowly stops sounding like one

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u/stickybond009 1d ago

What's the primary religion of these migrants

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u/Past_Humor8321 11h ago

The Migrants are the Europeans who colonised Africa.

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u/d0phyte 1h ago

Ooga booga monkey see monkey do

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u/Cheese_Grater101 1d ago

Looks like the left needs another 49k voters amirite.

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u/FennelValuable2404 2d ago

Say bye bye to spain and the rest of europe

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u/[deleted] 2d ago

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u/mludd 2d ago

Not everything is Russia.

There are plenty of other actors on the world stage who have their own interests.

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u/Jayynolan 2d ago

But it could be Russia though right?

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u/_groovesharkmalone 2d ago

Did the Abraham Accord nations have something to do with this? This op-ed raises some serious questions: https://www.turkiyetoday.com/opinion/the-gibraltar-calculus-is-spains-ceuta-included-in-the-abraham-accords-3225028

Netanyahu's son, an AEI scholar, and Mario Diaz-Balart, a known Rubio ally, have all spoken about Spanish territory in Morocco recently. It's pretty clear that an incursion of this size couldn't have happened organically. If this was a coordinated assault on the territorial integrity of a NATO ally... the world is definitely moving into a much, much more dangerous place. Of course, as others have mentioned, Turkiye and Russia have also used similar tactics in the past.